Scandal? What Scandal?
That said, it is interesting to look at those who voted Liberal last time but won't this year. Are they leaving because of revelations at the Gomery inquiry? Because of brown envelopes? Because Chuck Guite fingered Paul Martin? Nope. It was amazing how few people cited Adscam as the reason for their disenchantment. I decided to do a quick tally among those who said they'd jump from the Liberals. A lot of people gave multiple reasons and I jotted them all down so it's far from scientific, but here are the most common reasons for jumping ship:
1. Paul Martin himself 7 ("disappointing" was the word of choice)
2. Opposition 6 (there were three who basically said "Layton's terrible, but better than the others" and three who said "Harper's terrible, but not as terrible as he's made to be")
3. Strategic Voting 4
3. Tired/Arrogant Party 4
5. The PM's zealots (Earnscliffe crowd) 3
5. Liberal Policy (or policy waffling) 3
5. Local candidate 3
8. Adscam 1
And the one guy who mentioned Adscam listed other reasons too. Maybe the Sponsorship Scandal will have a bigger impact on those who don't follow politics closely than on the Paul Wells blog readership. And maybe Adscam has contributed to the feeling of "disappointment" with Martin himself or the notion that the government is past its best before date. But when the obits are written, I think it will be important to not blame the Liberals' demise on scandal alone.