Since Tony Valeri has that Count Chocula look to him, I'm sure he can count votes ("One MP! Two MP! Three MP!"). So I'd expect a full house from the Liberals and the Dippers. That means 150 votes.
I'm also going to assume Carolyn Parrish votes with the Liberals, although I wouldn't put it past her to change her mind at the last minute, as the ultimate FU to Paul Martin. So, worst case scenario, that leaves us with 151 yea votes.
The Bloc Conservatrice seems to have 151 healthy MPs. Dave Chatters has said he plans to be there next week. Obviously, that's not a certainty, but let's assume he's well enough to vote. That leaves us with 152 nay votes.
Darrel Stinson is having chemotherapy treatment the day before so he will be unable to vote. I'd hate to think the Liberals scheduled the vote on Thursday for this reason but, as others point out, it wouldn't be the first time.
David Kilgour voted with the Liberals this week but was extremely critical of the Sudan package Martin unveiled today. There is some talk at Blogs Canada that Kilgour will be out of the country next week, but given the importance of the vote, I can't imagine him staying away. If Kilgour is a no-show, then a Cadman absence or nay vote will defeat the government. If Kilgour votes with the Bloc Conservatrice, the government falls. If Kilgour votes with the LDP, it's 152-152 and it comes down to Cadman.
ElectionsWatch is all over the Cadman story. From the sound of things, he'll be in Ottawa next week. How will he vote? Well, Cadman is keeping the suspense going and has been flip-flopping back and forth over the past few weeks. He seems to enjoy the media attention more than Kilgour so I'm expecting him to keep everyone up to date on his moronic little poll over the next week.
So, to sum things up, it's looking like a 152-151 vote before Cadman and Kilgour stand up. The Government survives in the event of a tie so that means that if either Kilgour or Cadman vote with the opposition, the Government will fall. I'd say both are about 50/50, so we're looking at about a 75% chance of the Goodale/Layton/McGuinty budget going down in defeat. My gut is that Kilgour will vote nay and Cadman will go yea, leading us to a 153-152 vote and a June 27th election. But hey, I've been wrong before.
FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE: The NDP has raised the pairing idea, which could take John Efford away from the House on Thursday. It's a fair enough idea, although it doesn't change anything unless Kilgour or Cadman are no-shows. If Chatters can't attend, then Harper would be nutty not to take them up on the offer.