Wednesday, May 11, 2005

Honest Steve

At this point, publishing polls has almost become a waste of space in newspapers. It would likely be more productive to splash Mr. Martin's and Mr. Harper's horoscopes across the front page. Look no further than today's numbers:

Allan Gregg
Con 31
Lib 27
NDP 20
Bloc 14
Green 7

Lib 37
Con 28
NDP 18
Bloc 12

Whaaaaaaaaaaaa? There is the equivalent of a 13 point swing between these polls (Libs up 9 versus Libs down 4). Personally, I tend to put more faith in the Gregg poll because he actually included the Green Party and I can't for the life of me see how Martin gained support as Guite and Corbeil were flinging accusations around left, right and centre. But at this point, the only thing the polls have showed us is that the electorate is more volatile than it's been in decades. I doubt any new polls will tell us much more than that. What this means is that the election campaign is going to be very important. A strong campaign by either Martin or Harper could get them a strong minority.

More interesting are the "bonus questions" in Gregg's poll. For the past year, Martin has been polling well above his party. I've always thought this was because Paul has been making decisions to raise his stock, even if it hurt the Liberal brand. But it was pretty obvious that this was an artificial high and it was only a matter of time before his stock crashed down to the party's level. It appears that crash has finally arrived.

61% say Martin is the leader most likely to tell a lie. 54% said he was the most hypocritical and 63% said he was the most dishonest. Ouch.

And remember, it's not like his opponents are titans of Canadian politics. Most Liberals I talk to will admit the only thing the Liberal Party has going for it right now is Stephen Harper. Will that be enough to win the next election? Nobody knows. The pollsters certainly don't.


  • I just found this site:

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    By Blogger timmy rock, at 4:26 p.m.  

  • Calgrit:

    This poll by Decima would conform to SES's poll I mentioned a fews days ago (Libs 36, Tories 30)

    Also.. Decima's poll was Frm the 5th to the 8th of this month.. while SGC's was spread over a week from the 2nd to the 8th. I think the tighter and more recent poll dates have to be respected as being more in tune.

    By Blogger Scott Tribe, at 5:43 p.m.  

  • At this stage it is interesting to ask yourself what a Conservative minority would function like. I believe anything other than a Conservative majority is actualy a victory for the Liberals. These numbers would suggest another minority government...

    By Blogger Manatee, at 9:34 p.m.  

  • Manatee: how do you figure a 37-28 Decima Lead for the Libs over the tories or a 36-30 lead for the Libs over the Tories in the SES poll translates into a Tory minority?

    You're not one of these "blogging tories" who refuses to believe in any poll that doesnt show your party ahead, are you? :)

    By Blogger Scott Tribe, at 10:44 p.m.  

  • I'm sorry Scott, I missed typed. It is quite reasonable to expect a party garnering 36ish% support to form a majority, I meant to suggest that the polls suggesting different parties have the greatest support leads me to believe that the next parliament will also be a minority parliament. I actually expect it to be another Liberal minority and think there is no chance of the Conservatives winning a majority. I think the numbers for the Alan Gregg poll would suggest a Conservative minority, I would imagine.

    That's the first time I've been called a torie in a while, my parents will be so proud! :)
    (we need the traffic!)

    By Blogger Manatee, at 10:58 p.m.  

  • Oh ya, I imagine a Conservative minority to be unable to function whatsoever! With the only shared goal of their current allies in the House being to defeat the government, the House of Commons will be a lonely place unless Harper can pull off an electoral miracle.

    By Blogger Manatee, at 11:17 p.m.  

  • Wow - if Liberals think Stephen Harper is a liability then the Tories are going to clobber them. He makes Martin look like he's about 70 years old, never gets rattled, and knows policy inside out. Sure he's boring, but so what? When it comes to being percieved as honest, that's a good thing.

    By Blogger ALW, at 1:56 p.m.  

  • Alw:

    I heard that leading up to June 28, 2004... It wont be any different now.. particularly in Eastern Canada.

    By Blogger Scott Tribe, at 3:03 p.m.  

  • I just went to that site the last guy suggested: It's pretty good!

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    By Anonymous David Penning, at 3:41 p.m.  

  • Scott,

    I sincerely hope you keep that attitude heading into the next election!

    Harper didn't kill us. The wandering tongues of certain MPs and candidates did. If it wasn't for Harper we wouldn't have even got that close in the first place.

    By Blogger ALW, at 5:05 p.m.  

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