Tuesday, May 03, 2011

About that unnecessary election...

A $300M Canadian election would change little: Pollster

Canada is on the verge of being plunged into a $300-million federal election and after it’s all over Parliament could well look the same, an EKOS seat projection concludes.

“No party would shift by more than a handful of seats and qualitatively this would be a virtually identical balance of power to what we have now,” the polling firm says on its website. The report is based on data collected Feb. 24 to March 8.

I re-post this only as one final reminder that campaigns matter.


  • I'm not as smart as half the commenters here -- but I'm not a partisan and I (generally) reject polls.

    Certainly polls made this election. Progressives heard that QC might go Orange and jumped on, as one example. Voters saw their choice of effective vote narrow, and many responded. But polls themselves don't offer me much fascination. There's only one that really counts.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 12:18 p.m.  

  • The polls drive voter choices so much now, it makes the election day outcome completely predictable.

    All the polls predicted the outcome- it was clearly a leadership vote.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:34 p.m.  

  • Polls themselves are useful. But a simple vote question only tells you where we're at now - not where we're going.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:36 p.m.  

  • Seems that the grits believed in the polls at the time. No other explanation.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 12:55 p.m.  

  • The election day outcome was in fact UNpredictable.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 1:42 p.m.  

  • Draw a vertical line on the poll graph for the day the Canadiens lost the series.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:58 p.m.  

  • Was LPC's defeat unpredictable?

    Iggy entered the election already crippled.

    I find it astonishing that Iggy didn't rally the anti-harper elements when he was being attacked in the advertisements. This would have gained him brand recognition among the opposition, and free publicity of the good kind ('fighter').

    It's like Iggy expects the party to pull him along when it should be the other way around.

    By, contrast, Layton is the respected face of the NDP (motley collection of interests). And, harper for the right wing.

    Here's the road race analogy. Iggy starts the race already winded. He runs at a steady pace hoping to finish in the chase pack. But, someone breaks away and takes everyone else with him. Leaving Iggy in last place.

    The results speak for themselves. Even that strange guy Stephane Dion retained his seat with a 6k margin.

    In the history of the grits, this election should be known as the one they fought leaderless.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 5:27 p.m.  

  • Canada is rotten to the core with corruption. You can trust nothing, and I don't.

    Poll's are a total waste of time. Their stats are all different numbers, it depends on which politician each poll favors.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:54 p.m.  

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