Monday, May 02, 2011

Polls, Projections, Predictions

A round-up of what might, but probably won't, happen tonight:

POLLS

Leger: CPC 36%, NDP 31%, Lib 21%, BQ 7%, Green 4%

Angus Reid: CPC 37%, NDP 33%, Lib 19%, BQ 6%, Green 4%

Ipsos: CPC 38%, NDP 33%, Lib 18%, BQ 7%, Green 4%

Nanos: CPC 37%, NDP 32%, Lib 21%, BQ 6%, Green 4%

Ekos: CPC 35%, NDP 31%, Lib 20%, BQ 5%, Green 6%

Decima: CPC 36%, NDP 30%, Lib 19%, BQ 6%, Green 6%

Forum: CPC 35%, NDP 33%, Lib 19%

Abacus: CPC 37%, NDP 32%, Lib 18%, BQ 7%, Green 7%

Compass: CPC 46%, NDP 26%, Lib 17%, BQ 7%, Green 4%


PREDICTIONS & PROJECTIONS

308.com: CPC 143, NDP 78, Lib 60, BQ 27

Riding-by-Riding: CPC 142, NDP 114, Lib 39, BQ 12, Ind 1

Trendlines: CPC 148, NDP 92, Lib 50, BQ 17

Ekos: CPC 138, NDP 113, Lib 41, BQ 15, Green 1

LISPOP: CPC 144, NDP 98, Lib 51, BQ 15

Democratic Space: CPC 155, NDP 86, Lib 47, BQ 20

Calgary Grit (projection): CPC 151.0, NDP 90.9, Lib 46.9, BQ 18.5, Ind 0.6

Calgary Grit (prediction): CPC 146, NDP 83, Lib 55, BQ 22, Green 1, Ind 1

Election Prediction Project: CPC 146, Lib 63, NDP 65, BQ 33, Ind 1


A few of the readers from this blog have made their predictions in this thread - feel free to join them there, or post yours below. The average prediction from ya'll so far is: CPC 143, NDP 88, Lib 54, BQ 22, Ind 1, Green 0

19 Comments:

  • Democratic Space has CPC 155, NDP 86, LPC 47, BQ 20

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:35 AM  

  • Essentially, the Liberals and NDP have swapped places.

    By Blogger Bailey, at 11:41 AM  

  • CPC 150, NDP 78, LPC 51, BQ 28, IND 1.

    By Anonymous Dave Roberts, at 11:47 AM  

  • Conservatives: 308.
    There, said and done.

    Harper will declare himself PM for Life.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:07 PM  

  • When you actually look at the seat-by-seat predictions, Riding-by-Riding.ca is completely incredible. And not in the good sense of the word

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:11 PM  

  • I like ElectionPrediction the best. I'm finally willing to admit that the NDP could beat the Liberals, but I just can't see them cracking 70. And even at 70 they'll have quite a few "warm bodies" elected.

    I'd love to see the BQ knocked under 30 or even 20, but I can't see it.

    At least we all largely agree on the CPC.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 12:18 PM  

  • Democraticspace is my preferred site - they seem the most rational and are willing to go beyond national polls and consider local conditions

    Over the past few elections I've found Election Prediction to be too arbitrary. They're slow (almost reluctant) to change any non-Lib prediction for a lib-held seat, while other seat with a non-Liberal can change prediction with the drop of a hat - it's a little fishy

    That being said, I think that this time their predictions are pretty much bang-on for every riding - outside of Québec.

    Their Québec predictions seem pretty random but you can't blame them on that

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:36 PM  

  • Conservative minority, NDP over 100 seats, Liberals under 50.

    Liberals will support a Harperless Conservative government.

    By Blogger Political Outsider, at 12:59 PM  

  • I think CG's simulation method will ultimately prevail, because it accepts the possibility that a major swing in the vote won't necessarily be uniform across regions.

    In future the question of predicting the location of events like the orange surge will represent a real challenge for seat projectors. It would help if more pollsters showed their demographic data (esp. if they showed it at the regional level). If say, the NDP surged among francophones in Quebec, but not anglophones, for instance, you could have a strong baseline.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 1:06 PM  

  • Conservatives 152
    NDP 88
    Liberals 46
    Bloc 21
    Independent 1 (Arthur)

    By Blogger Koby, at 1:53 PM  

  • I think the Conservatives are going to do better than expected in Atlantic Canada and Ontario and will win 150-160 seats.
    The Liberals will mostly hold their Quebec seats. They will lose seats everywhere else.

    By Anonymous Nuna D. Above, at 1:58 PM  

  • Many of your predictions are very close to my own:
    CPC - 151
    NDP - 89
    Lib - 50
    BQ - 18

    Harris and Ekos have Green support too high, as they did in the last election. I'm surprised to see Election Prediction Project with the BQ so high in seats.

    By Blogger Michael Fox, at 2:07 PM  

  • I appreciate your great election coverage and analysis throughout this campaign.

    I'm predicting
    C 152
    N 84
    L 51
    B 20
    I 1

    By Blogger Prairie Topiary, at 2:34 PM  

  • I stand by the prediction I made on Thursday. Should be a fun night.

    CPC 121
    NDP 91
    LPC 68
    BQ 27
    Ind 1

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 2:45 PM  

  • Compass poll is nuts, but do agree with their comment about a "double drama" election like 2004. Volatile in both directions right to the end. So it's pure guesswork which way voters will break.

    Took your weighted poll averages and put some Nanos ranges next to them (Fri+Sat, all, Sun).

    CPC 36.5% (35.2%/36.9%/38.7%)
    NDP 29.9% (32.8%/31.6%/30.5%)
    LIB 21.3% (21.7%/21.3%/20.9%)
    BQ 6.6% (5.4%/5.2%/5.0%)
    GP 4.9% (3.9%/3.7%/3.7%)

    Going to guess the CPC gets the last swing like 2008. So based somewhat on the Sunday only Nanos:

    CPC 156, NDP 80, Lib 50, BQ 20, Green 1, Ind 1

    By Anonymous mikey, at 4:20 PM  

  • Liberal supporters across the country are receiving phony phone calls today telling them that their polling station has moved. Apparently, only happening to Liberal supporters, including ridings where the races are only between the Liberals and NDP.

    So, who is doing this? The NDP or the Conservatives? Multiple compaints made to Elections Canada but of course,any damage is already done. We need better laws to crack down on this stuff.

    By Blogger tell it like it is, at 4:33 PM  

  • "So, who is doing this? The NDP or the Conservatives?"

    Lot's of push polling this year by third parties, so all it takes is one strategic vote herder with no ethical compass. Could be a party official, but they do not have a complete monopoly on unethical behaviour.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:45 PM  

  • This turns my stomach - I hope the perpetrators are caught and dealt with severely.

    It looks like the four ridings being hit primarily are:
    Guelph (Liberal-Tory)
    Kitchener-Waterloo (Tory-Liberal)
    Winnipeg South Centre (Liberal-Tory)
    South Shore-St. Margaret's (Tory-NDP)

    The Tories stand to gain in 3 out of 4 by depressing the Liberal vote. On the other hand, somebody else could gain from a backlash (or by forcing a second vote due to irregularities).

    I have also read that the calls are going out from a Montreal area code.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 5:15 PM  

  • hoser,

    I know for a fact it is happening to Gerard Kennedy supporters in Parkdale High Park, NOT to Nash supporters.

    Nash has run a very dirty campaign there.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:32 PM  

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