Monday, May 02, 2011

Election Night

I'm volunteering for my local Liberal candidate for most of the day and will be at the campaign party tonight, so updates might be a bit sporadic - especially since I plan to spend an hour or two at some point curled up in the fetal position in tears.

But rest assured, I will log on here a few times tonight to share my thoughts on the results. So consider this an open thread to post your thoughts on what could be a historic election.

Some things I'll be paying attention to tonight:

1. Harper's majority: People often dwell on the "155" number, but when you consider resignations, floor crossings, and by elections, every extra MP in that 150-160 range is a big deal. I've got Harper projected at 151 seats and a 28% chance at the majority, so it might be late into the night before we see how the dust settles.

2. The independents: Arthur, Ford, and Guergis all stand a chance of winning tonight. Can you imagine how delicious it would be if Harper needed Helena's vote to get his majority?

3. Liberal incumbents: A lot of Liberal MPs I like and respect could be in tough tonight - Kennedy, Trudeau, and Dryden to name a few.

4. Harper's Cabinet: Lawrence Cannon seems likely to be going down, but he's not the only Quebec Cabinet Minister in jeopardy. 308 is also predicting Peter MacKay will lose - I have a hard time believing that, but it would be the stunner of the night.

5. The NDP in Quebec: The NDP could win 20 seats in Quebec...or they could win 50. I can't remember the last time a province was this unpredictable heading into election night. Their performance in Quebec will be an excellent case study in just how important the ground game really is.

6. May: It's going to be a close one. What happens in Saanich tonight could very well decide how relevant the Green Party is in Canada over the next decade.

7. Gilles Duceppe: This will almost certainly be his final campaign. The only question left is whether or not he holds his own seat, and just how bad it gets for the Bloc.

Those are just some of the things I'll be watching for tonight. I'm sure we'll be treated to a few surprises along the way too.


  • And I'm sure one of those surprises will be how Harper 'misspoke' on radio in Vancouver today and blatantly contravened the elections act by touting that people should vote Conservative.

    Does he just not care how often he screws past actual law or how brazenly? What's his hockey book going to be about? "How to Highstick Anyone Stupid Enough to Play By the Rules"? "Regulations? Oh, You Mean the Stuff Used to Penalize The *Other* Teams"?

    If he gets his majority...

    By Blogger Niles, at 7:15 PM  

  • Dose that mean Mark Holland shouldn't have been standing near the 401 on-ramp today with Liberal signs saying vote Liberal?

    And Layton today outside a polling both asking Canadians to vote for change?

    By Blogger paulsstuff, at 7:34 PM  

  • Oh my God! You mean Stephen Harper thinks you should vote Conservative. Well, if even he is willing to go Blue, who am I to argue?

    Canada has a lot of election laws that need to change (eg. why can't Elections Canada wait till everybody has voted before releasing results, thus eliminating the need for their stupid blackout law).

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 7:46 PM  

  • My first election in Western Canada (in Alberta near BC border) and all the news channels are blocked right now, very very lame :(

    By Anonymous stewacide, at 7:55 PM  

  • Funny how the end of our own election is overshadowed by the Royal Wedding and Osama Bin Laden.

    Good and evil at its finest.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:52 PM  

  • Hey everyone, what are some good sites to follow for live updates/news/discussion, etc?

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 8:55 PM  

  • What the hell, I'll break Election Canada laws ...the Bloc was completely shut out of Newfoundland!

    By Blogger Tof KW, at 9:13 PM  

  • Hey, enjoy that thin, cold gruel at the campaign party!

    Watch out for the lumps.


    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:29 PM  

  • I live in the US, so I am not subject to Canadian law. Here are the election results so far: Canucks up by 3, but I think it is going to shoot-outs.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 9:40 PM  

  • Also, CG, the Liberals may lose some seats tonight - but every Liberal can sleep easily knowing that they put together an honest, clean campaign, and gave this election their all. Much as I say after unsuccessful dates - if Canadians chose to miss out on a good thing, that's their loss.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 9:58 PM  

  • Robert,

    Nationalnewswatch has links to the various sites hosting election coverage. CBC worked for me (in the US) in 2008. Personally, I like having the reassuring presence of Peter Mansbridge. If not for his reassurance (ca. 1995) that the numbers would stabilize after the west island results came in, I don't know where I'd be today.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 10:00 PM  

  • wow

    Going to be some prediction model rethinking

    By Anonymous mr rectifier, at 10:04 PM  

  • Wow, I just keep looking at the screen and laughing. Something about the "science" of polling is wrong.

    Liberals, please accept my heartfelt condolences. I am sure Canada will miss having an opposition that understands economics.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 10:23 PM  

  • Its not who will run for the leadership, its who is left to run for the leadership

    By Anonymous Mr rectifier, at 10:28 PM  

  • So far the greatets part of election is that the Bloc is down to 4 seats and not able to bribe Canada as in the past.

    By Anonymous Clown Party, at 10:33 PM  

  • Until the emotional waves recede, and I can properly comprehend tonight rationally, I have but one thought.

    Today Quebec voted to be a part of the Canadian tapestry, on ideological terms that they agreed with. That would have been a much more monumental shift, one that in my opinion could have healed various divides, if the rest of the country and especially Ontario had not envisioned a different Canada.

    By Anonymous Robin, at 11:36 PM  

  • Polling "science" is off? Duh! :)

    Amazing nite.

    Sorry to see Gilles and Michael lose their seats.

    Ig had by far and away the best and sexiest candidate photo

    Fully expected Bloc to get 20-35 at least; am stunned

    Stunned the Tories finished so strong to NDP; totally expected a smaller margin

    Wish May was returing tonite so am a. bit comme ci comme ca -- i sense a Pyrrhic Victory of sorts here

    Excited to hav no moronic electulation for awhile

    Glad Ed is alive to see the Orange Wave

    Curious if Duceppe will resign tonite or not

    Dan the LPC will be back. To be honest Im thrilled they lost -- mainly because they need lesslawyers and bankers and more Dan Arnold. H2H is right, it was a great campaign and Ignatieff will go down as a legendary and controversial Amost PM.

    Great to see Jennings take it in the heart tonite. Everything wrong with government is seen in this MP. Take a hike Jennings!

    Maxime Bernier -- he just gots hotter. Next PM.

    Still stunned at these Bloc returns.

    Duceppe's speaking soon.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 11:40 PM  

  • Geez... I don't even know where to begin with all those changes all at once, my predictions were WAY off! As I said on Facebook, I can only summarize with this: "WOW".

    By Anonymous Doctacosa, at 11:45 PM  

  • Holy crap - Ruth-Ellen Brosseau didn't just win, she won by 11 points. At the next election, I'm going to Vegas.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 11:49 PM  

  • GAME over for the grits

    By Blogger JimTan, at 11:56 PM  

  • Well I certainly was wrong

    By Anonymous Marc from soccer, at 12:02 AM  

  • Congrats to Eliz May!!!!!!!

    By Blogger JimTan, at 12:10 AM  

  • I know not everyone likes her, but congrats to Elizabeth May. I'm in favor of a varied political spectrum, and I think she well earned her seat!

    By Anonymous Doctacosa, at 12:16 AM  

  • I'm happy for May but I must say, her joy is only hastening the transition from drunk to angry drunk. That said, it really didn't need much help. I kind of hate Ontario right now.

    By Anonymous Robin, at 12:17 AM  

  • I wish May was RETIRING not returing...

    The Greens should have had 3-5 seats already going in. She is weak. Bad for Greens, as Bigfoot would say.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 12:48 AM  

  • Just wanted to admit how off my projections were. It is a tough night to be a left of center Canadian. Still seeing the ndp with over a hundred seats gives me some hope.

    Also you guys just have to checkout Harpers Victory speech. It is very moving and points the way forward for Canada


    By Anonymous MPAVictoria, at 1:20 AM  

  • Winner: COMPAS
    Loser: Ekos

    By Anonymous Nuna D. Above, at 1:25 AM  

  • Nuna, I believe Nanos' last night results are closest to what we are seeing today. I also posit that if you just look at the Ekos respondents absolutely certain to vote, you have a result that resembles this one.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 1:46 AM  

  • Grits almost wiped out in BC. Just Hedy Fry and Joyce Murray (both women) left. Margin of victory minimal.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 2:03 AM  

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