Saturday, April 30, 2011

Your Daily Seat Projections

My final projections will be posted tomorrow, but we've already got the final numbers from Leger, Ipsos, and Angus. Here's the running average:

CPC: 36.5% (+0.4)
NDP: 30.4% (+2.7)
Lib: 20.8% (-1.9)
Bloc: 6.6% (-)
Green: 4.7% (-0.9)

As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how shifts in regional support have historically transferred to individual ridings, and the chance the pollsters could just miss the mark, like in some previous elections.

This is the only simulation model out there and, as such, it's far more effective when projecting tight races or three-way races since it recognizes the riding could go either way depending on how the numbers break.

CPC: 139 to 163 seats (mean: 151.0)
NDP: 78 to 108 seats (mean: 93.6)
Lib: 34 to 57 seats (mean: 45.2)
Bloc: 8 to 28 seats (mean: 17.6)
Ind: 0.6

Odds of Tory victory: 100%
Odds of Tory majority: 29% (up from 20% on Friday)
Odds of NDP official opposition: 100%

Since Friday, the NDP are up another 15 seats on average, with the Liberals down 10 and the Bloc down 5. The NDP range in Quebec now sits at an astonishing 33 to 58 seats. However, even though the polls are good for them, if you happen to find yourself in Vegas this weekend, it might be safer to bet on the low end of that. In a lot of close races, on the ground organization will make a difference, and that's one area where the NDP are lacking in Quebec. Heck, it's unclear whether some of their candidates will even be around to vote for themselves. I'm not trying to be snide, I'm just trying to point out the weakness in any seat projection model - the same problem would present itself if the Liberals surged across Alberta. We'll have to wait until Monday to see how it plays out.

Becoming almost as unpredictable as Quebec is Ontario. Decima has the Liberals winning in the province, while Ipsos has them 13 points back of the NDP, in third. As a result, the 95% confidence interval for number of Liberal seats there ranges from 16 up to 33. There are very few safe seats left in this Liberal fortress.

(short methodology, long methodology)



  • What we need is the Wildrose party to go federal. We need a true conservative party.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:44 PM  

  • Ugh no thanks. The last thing we need is another regional rump.

    By Blogger Gene Rayburn, at 5:01 PM  

  • Though your projections seem as good as any out there in this wild ride of an election. I question how there can be a 100% chance of anything that involves complex social behaviours?

    By Blogger kirbycairo, at 5:01 PM  

  • Well we can look to the Liberal party campaign and were Mike is campaigning to know that the Liberals are certainly not ahead in Ontario. They are basically in a save the furniture strategy.

    I have a feeling that the NDP are trending downwards this weekend outside Quebec. Not sure that this can be reflected in the polls with just one day to go, but I get that sense. The NDP is a party fit for opposition like the British Labour party was during the 80's and early 90's. They are not New Labour with a new program for a modern economy and society nor is Jack Layton Tony Blair willing to find a middle way while sticking to principle.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:02 PM  

  • Didn't the Nanos poll have the Liberals up and NDP down from yesterday? I think the NDP ride has stalled.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:04 PM  

  • DemocraticSpace is showing the Tories just short of a majority at 149, NDP 79, Liberals 55, BQ 24 and 1 Indie who votes with the Tories giving them 150.

    I would think given that scenario, Harper would remain P.M, since the combine NDP and Liberal numbers are well short of the Tories.

    Another thing we are missing is what role would the BQ play. Beaten and battered by the NDP after the election. I seriously doubt they would want to have anything to do with them. Also they like the Liberals will be looking for new leadership.

    By Blogger Andre, at 5:13 PM  

  • No wild rose, but I wouldnt mind turning on question period and seeing danielle smith. She'd be a great addition to the CPC team

    By Anonymous mr rectifier, at 5:23 PM  

  • I think the NDP projections are optimistic. In many ridings, they do not have credible candidates. In Quebec, they have few people on the ground to get the vote out.

    By Blogger L, at 5:30 PM  

  • Big exciting week CG.

    Hard to believe!

    Many insist "Iggy's done", and "if you look back to 1994 in BC or 1971 in New Zealand", but the cold stark reality is this: Anything can happen.

    The only serious kind of comparisons are for example the night Rae won Premier of ON and the cliffhanger referendums.

    (My understanding of Rae's election is that it was an unforeseen surprise that no one predicted before the votes were counted... how true that is I don't know.)

    The truth is, Ignatieff could get a majority government on Monday. People laugh, yet a majority or plurality could get cold feet in the booth and vote Bloc. Jack could be minority PM and then a majority PM.

    In terms of gut reaction and involvement, this is second only to the Obama vs McCain election. It was a palpable buzz in my stomach that said, "Wow there's going to be a black President in my lifetime - unbelievable." It was like watching a great surprise sports moment and being there to see it was *fun*. It's cool to watch this happen -- it's a roulette wheel and nobody knows which color the steel balls are going to land on come Monday night.

    Baby, I KNEW something was up in the French debate. Jack Layton won, I called it -- now everyone seems to agree. ;) I was really blown away by his French, with a real jealousy, and when Duceppe said, "You will never be Prime Minister", I could imagine cartoon rumbling clouds sounding off in the distance.

    I was totally bored by this election til I saw that debate and suddenly it became interesting.

    Jack's worked harder to familiarize himself with francophones and anglophones. I think it's paying off.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 5:42 PM  

  • I agree with L. The NDP is very reliant on their admittedly excellent get-out-the-vote process.

    But it is only excellent where there are people and where there is the expertise. Plus, it is dependent on lots of ongoing work during the campaign, which may not be the case for many many ridings where the NDP wasn't in the running until half-way through.

    I still think it is conceivable that the NDP ends up in third, albeit a very very strong third although I'm not a stats man.

    If the NDP does end up tripling its seats, what may be interesting is the reaction of the current caucus at being subsumed by a bunch of newbies.

    By Anonymous Marc from soccer, at 5:44 PM  

  • I love the idea of a federal Wildrose Party! YES!

    If they run in every riding they could be an interesting addition to the federation conversation.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 5:45 PM  

  • conceivable that the NDP ends up in third


    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 5:46 PM  

  • It's true the NDP can't have a lot of GOTV in Quebec, but I imagine they will move resources to whatever they consider key ridings there. I live in a safe NDP seat (it'd be safe even if the NDP was at 10% nationally) and our NDP candidate is nowhere to be seen, so I assume he is off working for some other riding that is not such a sure bet. It seems the NDP is doing a lot of this shifting around, leaving either completely safe or unwinnable ridings empty and concentrating on others. It is a useful strategy, except some voters feel used.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:49 PM  

  • the corpse of the Liberal Party

    Gambling-wise, my money's on Jack but really, who knows.

    Harper could fall in a month and Ignatieff could be PM. On ne sait jamais...

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 5:55 PM  

  • I'll preface my comment with the fact I'm a Conservative voter this election, but I still can't see the NDP getting more seats than the Liberals. Still too strong a brand, even with Ignatieff's poor polling numbers.

    Conservative-159 seats
    Bloc-18 seats

    By Blogger paulsstuff, at 5:58 PM  

  • My understanding of Rae's election is that it was an unforeseen surprise that no one predicted before the votes were counted... how true that is I don't know"

    I remember watching the results with Steven Lewis on. As the results came in whomever the network guy was started suggesting the NDP could even win...with Lewis not believing it was possible but happy they could be opposition. Rae had clearly built momentum during the campaign but it was a shocker they won, let alone a majority. Close 3 way splits that all ended up going their way.

    By Anonymous Mr rectifier, at 6:23 PM  

  • If the electorate is seriously motivated to vote a certain way, they will act as their own GOTV machine in the absence of a strong working one.

    The vast majority of voters still find their way to the polls without the help of party GOTV efforts, and it will be no different for voters in Quebec determined to vote NDP.

    By Anonymous Nonpareil, at 7:23 PM  

  • I wouldn't low ball the number of seats that the NDP could win in QC. Just a few years ago, the ADQ just about beat the provincial liberals, going from 7 seats to around 40, by riding a surge and having virtually no "get out the vote" machine in most of those ridings.

    By Anonymous mark, at 7:24 PM  

  • So riddle me this: Why is it okay (necessary?) for the media to go on and on about Jack's supposed happy ending, but there's been no word of the (equally supported) rumor that Harper's wife left him months ago and they've been putting on an act? Does it not speak to his character that he would parade her around to demonstrate a strong family if it's all fake?

    clearly, this is all rumor, but so is the damn Layton story.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:53 PM  

  • "clearly, this is all rumor, but so is the damn Layton story."

    Ya, except that Jack admits it happened. Since when is the truth a smear?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:19 PM  

  • With so many previous Bloc voters shifting to the NDP, doesn't the Bloc GOTV help the NDP in equal measure? What way does the Bloc have to tell NDP-switchers from still committed Bloc voters?

    By Anonymous stewacide, at 8:32 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by the author.

    By Blogger sharonapple88, at 9:05 PM  

  • All day long I have been reading the dumbass trying to equate Jacks-not-so-happy-ending with a supposedly sham Harper marriage. Must be a Liberal, pretty desperate.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:10 PM  

  • What way does the Bloc have to tell NDP-switchers from still committed Bloc voters?

    Good question. At the sametime, this also gives the Bloc the chance to do some last minute campaigning on a personal level that the NDP won't be able to do.

    By Blogger sharonapple88, at 9:11 PM  

  • Rather interesting tweet, eh

    For those who care, someone tried to shop me the Layton-massage story 2 yrs ago (without docs). It was a Liberal fixer”

    By Blogger wilson, at 9:38 PM  

  • I've heard the rumour about this Layton story for the past two years in various circles.

    And the difference between this and the Harper one (which did hit the media in January) is that it's true - it hasn't been denied by Layton.

    Either way, outside of Sun, the media have really been fairly timid with this story. I think they've been fairly responsible in the way they've covered it.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:14 PM  

  • JBV - Right you were on that French debate! Glad I posted your comments here at the time.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:15 PM  

  • And, let me say, I agree 100% with the comments about the NDP ground game, which is why I believe they'll be on the low end of their seat projection range.

    Also, even though I factor incumbency in, it's highly possible the incumbency boost will be higher than usual for a lot of the long-time Liberal MPs who are under fire.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:16 PM  

  • "So riddle me this:..."

    Layton is running for PM, Harper's wife isn't

    Using a "massage" clinic as a brothel is a crime, having an affair/marriage issue isn't

    Layton story has credible sources (Cop, layton himself), Harper wife rumour doesn't

    Not even comaprable

    By Anonymous mr rectifier, at 10:17 PM  

  • Re: rub and tug - Sun has been the one promoting it, but CBC radio has also repeated it about once an hour (or more) for the past 24 hours. It's been pretty much the third news story, second election story each time (I have CBC on in the background a lot so I've heard it over, and over, and over...)

    By Anonymous Marc from soccer, at 10:29 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by the author.

    By Blogger Toronto Tory, at 10:54 PM  

  • I predict the NDP will win 40% of the popular vote in Quebec. However, they will fail to win any seats, as they finish second in every riding with 25% of the vote.

    By Blogger Political Outsider, at 11:14 PM  

  • And the difference between this and the Harper one (which did hit the media in January) is that it's true - it hasn't been denied by Layton.

    All I've heard so far is that he admitted going to a massage parlour than happened to be the subject of a police raid.

    To my knowledge he has not commented on any of the gory details from the Sun article, except to say there was "no wrongdoing", which you can interpret as a denial if you like.

    By Blogger saphorr, at 11:27 PM  

  • Angus Reid has a good trck record election to election. They show a down tick of NDP support in Ontario, and up tick for Conservatives and Liberal. thta may spell extra Conservative seats via vote split Liberal/NDP.

    This is going to be interesting Monday night.

    By Blogger Mark Francis, at 12:04 AM  

  • Told Ya.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 12:50 AM  

  • By Blogger chenlina, at 2:14 AM  

  • By Blogger chenlina, at 9:53 PM  

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