Sunday, May 01, 2011

Ridings to Watch - Ontario

I've already profiled close races in BC, Alberta, the Prairies, Atlantic Canada, and Quebec. I finish off tonight in Ontario.

While Quebec will decide who moves into Stornoway, Ontario will decide whether or not Harper gets his majority (or if Layton pulls off the shocker):

It's a good night for the Liberals if...

At this point, every hold for the grits is good news. If things really broke their way, Omar Alghabra's strong campaign in Mississauga-Erindale would end with him back in Ottawa. Oak Ridges Markham and the two Kitchener seats could also tip Liberal under the right circumstances.

And although my projection model is not overly optimistic, I've heard good things about David Bertshi's campaign in Ottawa-Orleans, so that could be a surprise.

It's a bad night for the Liberals if...

The projection model (to be updated later tonight) gives the Liberals less than even odds in 10 of their current seats, with Kingston and the Islands the most vulnerable. Parkdale High Park, the Beaches, and Davenport are all under fire from the NDP, with the Tories after a handful of 905 ridings and Nipissing-Timiskaming. Guelph and London North Centre are wild cards at this point, with all three parties in the game there.

If long-time incumbents like Ken Dryden and Joe Volpe start falling, the Liberals will very likely finish the night around Turner's 44 seat total of 1984.

It's a good night for the Conservatives if...

To win his majority, Harper will need to pick up ridings like Ajax-Pickering, Don Valley West, and, yes, even Etobicoke Lakeshore.

It's a bad night for the Conservatives if...

While the orange wave likely helps Harper in most GTA ridings, it could cost him Oshawa, a seat my model gives the NDP a 40% chance of taking.

And if ridings like Kenora or the Kitcheners fall, we could very well wind up in a situation where the national Liberal + NDP seat total pushes itself over 154.

It's a good night for the NDP if...

My model gives the NDP a "best case" scenario of 26 seats in Ontario. To do that, they'd need to come from third to win London North Centre and come from fourth to take Guelph. Even long-shots like York South Weston or Scarborough Southwest would have to fall, and I just don't see that happening.

Realistically, 20 seats in Ontario would be a good haul for the NDP.

It's a bad night for the NDP if...

Welland is the only NDP seat my model gives them under a 90% chance of holding and, even then, it pegs Malcolm Allen's re-election odds at 80%. However, at this point, NDP supporters would likely be disappointed if they can't pick off at least one or two Liberal MPs.


  • If everything breaks the Tories' and Dippers' way, the Grits stand to lose four of the 2006 leadership candidates (Kennedy, Dryden, Ignatieff and Volpe).

    Leaving Bob Rae last man standing to collect what is increasingly looking like a booby prize.

    By Anonymous Nonpareil, at 10:52 PM  

  • oak ridges markham will remain Conservative.

    By Blogger Rotterdam, at 10:58 PM  

  • A big problem facing the Liberals (and Tories) is that the places where they have a strong GOTV machine (and where they spent money), are no longer the key marginals due to the orange surge.

    In that kind of world, funny things can happen like a hold in Brampton-Springdale, but a loss in Davenport. Incidentally, it is for that reason that the Orange surge will truly change Canada (whether the NDP wins or loses).

    Parties craft policies in order to win marginal districts. However, in an NDP-Conservative world, a place like the 905 is solidly in Toryland. Instead Southwestern Ontario may be in the driver's seat.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 11:37 PM  

  • Strangely I think that York South Weston is one of the NDP's most likely pickups of all the Toronto seats, even depsite Tonks.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:10 AM  

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