Friday, May 13, 2005

Numbers Game

It looks like we're heading for one of the most dramatic votes in Parliament's history in one week's time (I won't say it's a certainty because the Tories might try to stall if they don't think they can win). What this means is that we're going to see every two bit hack try and predict how that vote will go over the next week. Being a two bit hack myself, here's my best guess:

"Yea" Base:
Since Tony Valeri has that Count Chocula look to him, I'm sure he can count votes ("One MP! Two MP! Three MP!"). So I'd expect a full house from the Liberals and the Dippers. That means 150 votes.

I'm also going to assume Carolyn Parrish votes with the Liberals, although I wouldn't put it past her to change her mind at the last minute, as the ultimate FU to Paul Martin. So, worst case scenario, that leaves us with 151 yea votes.

"Nay" Base:
The Bloc Conservatrice seems to have 151 healthy MPs. Dave Chatters has said he plans to be there next week. Obviously, that's not a certainty, but let's assume he's well enough to vote. That leaves us with 152 nay votes.

Darrel Stinson is having chemotherapy treatment the day before so he will be unable to vote. I'd hate to think the Liberals scheduled the vote on Thursday for this reason but, as others point out, it wouldn't be the first time.

David Kilgour voted with the Liberals this week but was extremely critical of the Sudan package Martin unveiled today. There is some talk at Blogs Canada that Kilgour will be out of the country next week, but given the importance of the vote, I can't imagine him staying away. If Kilgour is a no-show, then a Cadman absence or nay vote will defeat the government. If Kilgour votes with the Bloc Conservatrice, the government falls. If Kilgour votes with the LDP, it's 152-152 and it comes down to Cadman.

ElectionsWatch is all over the Cadman story. From the sound of things, he'll be in Ottawa next week. How will he vote? Well, Cadman is keeping the suspense going and has been flip-flopping back and forth over the past few weeks. He seems to enjoy the media attention more than Kilgour so I'm expecting him to keep everyone up to date on his moronic little poll over the next week.

So, to sum things up, it's looking like a 152-151 vote before Cadman and Kilgour stand up. The Government survives in the event of a tie so that means that if either Kilgour or Cadman vote with the opposition, the Government will fall. I'd say both are about 50/50, so we're looking at about a 75% chance of the Goodale/Layton/McGuinty budget going down in defeat. My gut is that Kilgour will vote nay and Cadman will go yea, leading us to a 153-152 vote and a June 27th election. But hey, I've been wrong before.

FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE: The NDP has raised the pairing idea, which could take John Efford away from the House on Thursday. It's a fair enough idea, although it doesn't change anything unless Kilgour or Cadman are no-shows. If Chatters can't attend, then Harper would be nutty not to take them up on the offer.


  • Bloc conservateur, non?

    By Blogger matt, at 3:26 a.m.  

  • I decided to go with the "feminine"...just because I think it would make Harper a little less comfortable.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 1:07 p.m.  

  • With the talk of Ed Broadbent sitting out to "pair" with Stinson, I would adjust it to 153-151.

    I think you're right on the two independents. Kilgour turfs and Cadman supports.

    By Blogger The Hack, at 1:14 p.m.  

  • from Reuters:

    "The chances of Martin surviving suffered a blow on Thursday when independent legislator David Kilgour -- a long-term advocate of Africa -- expressed disappointment with a proposed aid package for Sudan's troubled Darfur region.

    "If (Martin) doesn't do significantly better in the next week then he can assume that my vote's going to be against him," Kilgour told Reuters.

    So Martin has a few days to try and buy off kilgour...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:22 p.m.  

  • Bloc is a masculine word can't just ignore convention! ;)

    I agree re. the indies: 50/50 odds on each of Kilgour and Cadman. One will vote with the Tories.

    By Blogger matt, at 1:37 p.m.  

  • two bit hackery is vastly underrated.

    By Blogger Robert McBean., at 6:05 p.m.  

  • I am glad the NDP came up with the idea of pairing. It shows that there is some semblance of decency and decorum still left in the House.

    To use Jane Taber's ranking: the NDP is hot.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:32 p.m.  

  • I've read 1 news report today that one Liberal Official is predicting the Government will go down to defeat on the Budget - he actually seemed pretty nonchalant about it in the interview.. same column also had an NDP official predicting the Liberals and NDP would lose the effort to pass the budget.. I guess Kilgour's recent statements abbout not being satisfied til half of what left of the Canadian Army gets sent to Darfur and Cadman all of a sudden wavering on what he will do despite of his constituents wishes has led to thiese predictions.

    By Blogger Oxford County Liberals, at 10:14 p.m.  

  • according to the globe today the whole darfur thing might be a non-starter cause the sudanese aren't going to let canadian peacekeepers in. re election, everybody seems to be resigned now to going in the spring, but looks like the libs will get their wish to have it be over the budget, which will be their platform. pm was apparently talking about the election campaign in the present tense yesterday. oh, and nice blog.

    By Blogger ottawonk, at 2:08 p.m.  

  • Since when is voting on June 27th a "spring" election?

    By Blogger Ed, at 6:55 p.m.  

  • If the Martin Government falls, hopefully Canadians will rise to the occasion to punish the Conservatives and the Bloc for triggering an unnecessary election.

    By Blogger John Murney, at 1:33 p.m.  

  • Help! I am lost. I was searching for free yahoo game and somehow ended up here. How that happened I don't know, however I do like your Blog a lot. Would you mind if I add your Blog to my favorites page so others can visit?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:21 a.m.  

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