Belinda Mania
UPDATE: If you got to this page on google, looking for the latest on Belinda's defection, go here.
Now that the Liberals are back up in the polls, the speculation has shifted from replacing Paul to replacing Steve. And that’s fair enough. While Martin has lusted for power his entire life, I get the sense that Stephen Harper’s internal monologue on most days would be something like:
“Why on earth do I have to shake hands and smile and talk to people…I hate people. And why am I doing this? I’m a smart guy, I’ve made the party moderate, and I’ve got an incompetent ditherer with the biggest scandal in our lifetimes as an opponent and I still can’t crack 30% in the polls…this is absolutely ridiculous! It’s not worth the time, effort and half an hour it takes me every morning to get my hair looking so spectacular for this…”
So I think it’s safe to say he’ll quietly walk away if he loses the election. Which raises the obvious succession question and hence all the Belinda talk of late. Now, I’m not overly plugged in to the Tory ground war but I figure I’ll give a quick run down of the contenders for leadership as I see them – mainly since I’m starting to get a little tired of writing posts on polls and election speculation. Any Conservatives who know more than myself are invited to weigh in with their thoughts.
Heavy Weights
1. Peter MacKay – I know I’m going against the popular train of thought, but I think Ken has a much better chance to win than Barbie. I just can’t imagine the hard right Conservative members backing her whereas they might be willing to compromise on MacKay. The Orchard deal will hurt him but at least it shows he’s cutthroat enough to win.
2. Bernard Lord – I’m firmly convinced that Bernard Lord would be Prime Minister today and Paul Martin would be milking cows on the Martin farm had Bernie decided to throw his hat in the ring for the Tory leadership last year. Admittedly, you can count the number of premiers who have successfully jumped to federal politics on one amputated hand but he’s the best they have. The only reason I don’t have him at the top of the list is because of the unstable minority government they have in New Brunswick right now.
3. Insane Right Winger To Be Named Later – I’m not sure who it will be, but this party has a reputation for shooting themselves in the foot. I think there are enough grass roots Conservatives who either don’t care about winning or haven’t learned their lesson from the Stockwell Day/Stephen Harper fiascos. I could see a strong groundswell of support for…Stockwell Day. Don’t laugh. Rick Mercer will endorse him, I’m sure. Jason Kenney is another guy I wouldn’t count out. The never married 36 year old’s strong fight for the traditional definition of marriage could play well among a lot of the grass roots members.
4. Belinda Stronach – Yeah, she’s good looking and very moderate which would finally put all this “hidden agenda” nonsense to bed. And seeing the Canadian Prime Minister in the US tabloids would be kind of cool. But I just can’t see Belinda succeeding until she:
a) learns French
b) learns how to give a speech without reading it word for word from a paper
c) shows she’s got some smarts and/or political savvy
And, like I said, I can’t see the old Alliance crowd supporting her.
Great candidates who likely won’t run
James Moore – This guy is a future PM. Very smart, very well spoken, right where he needs to be right and left where he needs to be left. He’s likely too young to win this time but keep an eye on him, he’s going places.
Rona Ambrose – Belinda’s looks and Harper’s smarts. She’s not seen as a fanatical Alliance lunatic but is still conservative enough that the old Reformers might back her. She’s a bit of an unknown but I think she’s got a very bright future.
Monte Solberg – Deserves it, if only because his blog is one million times more interesting than “Paul’s blog” from when Martin ran for leadership.
Weak candidates who just might run
Jim Prentice – His SSM stand makes him seem more moderate but I just can’t see him finishing ahead of the other “moderate” candidates. And I know he’s really despised by a lot of Conservatives in Calgary.
Tony Clement – Seems to enjoy losing so much that he might just give it another try. Plus, I’m sure he’s closing in on the record for political defeats in a three year span.
Rahim Jaffer – If nothing else, he’d have a great attendance record in Question Period as Prime Minister since his assistant could impersonate him on days Rahim is too busy to attend.
Interesting Names…
Mike Harris
Jean Charest
Mario Dumont
Gordon Campbell
Just throwing them out there for discussion. And I’ve opened up the comments section of this blog to everyone so comment away.
Now that the Liberals are back up in the polls, the speculation has shifted from replacing Paul to replacing Steve. And that’s fair enough. While Martin has lusted for power his entire life, I get the sense that Stephen Harper’s internal monologue on most days would be something like:
“Why on earth do I have to shake hands and smile and talk to people…I hate people. And why am I doing this? I’m a smart guy, I’ve made the party moderate, and I’ve got an incompetent ditherer with the biggest scandal in our lifetimes as an opponent and I still can’t crack 30% in the polls…this is absolutely ridiculous! It’s not worth the time, effort and half an hour it takes me every morning to get my hair looking so spectacular for this…”
So I think it’s safe to say he’ll quietly walk away if he loses the election. Which raises the obvious succession question and hence all the Belinda talk of late. Now, I’m not overly plugged in to the Tory ground war but I figure I’ll give a quick run down of the contenders for leadership as I see them – mainly since I’m starting to get a little tired of writing posts on polls and election speculation. Any Conservatives who know more than myself are invited to weigh in with their thoughts.
Heavy Weights
1. Peter MacKay – I know I’m going against the popular train of thought, but I think Ken has a much better chance to win than Barbie. I just can’t imagine the hard right Conservative members backing her whereas they might be willing to compromise on MacKay. The Orchard deal will hurt him but at least it shows he’s cutthroat enough to win.
2. Bernard Lord – I’m firmly convinced that Bernard Lord would be Prime Minister today and Paul Martin would be milking cows on the Martin farm had Bernie decided to throw his hat in the ring for the Tory leadership last year. Admittedly, you can count the number of premiers who have successfully jumped to federal politics on one amputated hand but he’s the best they have. The only reason I don’t have him at the top of the list is because of the unstable minority government they have in New Brunswick right now.
3. Insane Right Winger To Be Named Later – I’m not sure who it will be, but this party has a reputation for shooting themselves in the foot. I think there are enough grass roots Conservatives who either don’t care about winning or haven’t learned their lesson from the Stockwell Day/Stephen Harper fiascos. I could see a strong groundswell of support for…Stockwell Day. Don’t laugh. Rick Mercer will endorse him, I’m sure. Jason Kenney is another guy I wouldn’t count out. The never married 36 year old’s strong fight for the traditional definition of marriage could play well among a lot of the grass roots members.
4. Belinda Stronach – Yeah, she’s good looking and very moderate which would finally put all this “hidden agenda” nonsense to bed. And seeing the Canadian Prime Minister in the US tabloids would be kind of cool. But I just can’t see Belinda succeeding until she:
a) learns French
b) learns how to give a speech without reading it word for word from a paper
c) shows she’s got some smarts and/or political savvy
And, like I said, I can’t see the old Alliance crowd supporting her.
Great candidates who likely won’t run
James Moore – This guy is a future PM. Very smart, very well spoken, right where he needs to be right and left where he needs to be left. He’s likely too young to win this time but keep an eye on him, he’s going places.
Rona Ambrose – Belinda’s looks and Harper’s smarts. She’s not seen as a fanatical Alliance lunatic but is still conservative enough that the old Reformers might back her. She’s a bit of an unknown but I think she’s got a very bright future.
Monte Solberg – Deserves it, if only because his blog is one million times more interesting than “Paul’s blog” from when Martin ran for leadership.
Weak candidates who just might run
Jim Prentice – His SSM stand makes him seem more moderate but I just can’t see him finishing ahead of the other “moderate” candidates. And I know he’s really despised by a lot of Conservatives in Calgary.
Tony Clement – Seems to enjoy losing so much that he might just give it another try. Plus, I’m sure he’s closing in on the record for political defeats in a three year span.
Rahim Jaffer – If nothing else, he’d have a great attendance record in Question Period as Prime Minister since his assistant could impersonate him on days Rahim is too busy to attend.
Interesting Names…
Mike Harris
Jean Charest
Mario Dumont
Gordon Campbell
Just throwing them out there for discussion. And I’ve opened up the comments section of this blog to everyone so comment away.
posted by calgarygrit at
2:13 a.m.
17 Comments:
I guess a credit to the Tories is that they have quite a wide variety of MP's that could be potential leaders.
Im not sure you could say that about the Liberals, yet their the ones in power. Go figure.
By
Anonymous, at 2:56 a.m.
Anonymous,
It's because of all the potentially good leaders the CPC went and chose perhaps the worst candidate. I think they must enjoy losing. It gives them more to gripe about. Hell, what would we Albertans do if we didn't have "western alienation" to complain about?
-Socialist Swine
By
Unknown, at 3:08 a.m.
The Globe & Mail wants Stronach as leader.
I get the sense that a lot of Conservatives would like Mike Harris. But he wouldn't do much for their little "winning in Ontario" problem, given that he fled Ontario politics rather than face the music.
By
AJSomerset, at 9:52 a.m.
Monte Solberg:
We'd have fun going after him for his loving support for dearest 'screw those redskins' Kate at Smelly Dead Animals:
http://blankouttimes.blogspot.com/2005/05/in-which-pooh-wonders-if.html
If Mike Harris became PM, years after his eventual, humiliating defeat, if they released a commemorative stamp with his face on it, people would spit on the wrong side.
Nix Harris.
Peter MacKay? Belinda? Would it really matter who won the leadership? It's all just BelindaMac to me.
By
Mark Richard Francis, at 10:22 a.m.
MacKay is out best choice, IMO.... and he voted against SSM so the SoCons won't froth overly much, and he's seen as fairly moderate by non-CPC members.
Belinda is a poor choice at least for another decade... she's started to learn the ropes, but has a long way to go.
Harris would also be nice.... but I don't think he'd run.
By
Andrew, at 11:35 a.m.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Stockwell make a comeback. Yes, yes, yes, he'd be a disaster for the party and (therefore) for the country.
But party leaders are not chosen by the electorate, but by the party, and there are an awful lot of so-cons in the CPC. They are the best organized constituency within the party and probably make up 40% of the party membership. (I'm guessing that is the number by those who voted against the motion at their convention to not have a party position on abortion.) Stockwell has a strong following amongst tem and knows how to get-out-the-vote.
By
buckets, at 3:41 p.m.
I think Harper will win the election. Therefore, it's too soon to talk about the next leader.
By
Anonymous, at 5:17 p.m.
Why do you say "Martin has lusted for power his entire life"? There is nothing wrong with aspiring to be Prime Minister. The harsh connotation seems unfair.
As for the discussion, Jean Charet would probably be their best choice. By so-con CPC standards he is left wing, but by Canadian standards he would probably be considered a moderate. Despite his current unpopularity as Premier in Quebec, he still retains some support and may help the CPC pick up some Quebec seats. He is also a strong federalist and many of us would trust him to fight an effective battle against the Quebec separatists.
By
Psychols, at 8:25 p.m.
Danny Williams: There has been speculation around here (NL) that he could run for the federal Conservative leadership sometime. I think he'd be good, but some people see him as a bit of a dictator so I think he'd have trouble keeping a minority government from falling.
Peter MacKay: Seems liked in Atlantic Canada. Given, we don't have enough seats to make a huge different but we have some. :)
By
Anonymous, at 11:15 p.m.
Please make #3 be Jason Kenney!!
By
daveberta, at 12:19 a.m.
cycles; Oh, it's not neccesarily a bad thing. I'm just saying that becoming Prime Minister likely hasn't been a goal of Harper's his entire life. So, if he loses the next election, he'll quietly walk away. I'm not sure if Martin will.
By
calgarygrit, at 1:45 a.m.
Bart, I agree with you 100% on Bernie Lord, he would have cleaned house. He's everything that the CPC is missing with Harper... moderate, not from the Reform-Alliance tradition, and he would have a pulse in Quebec too. No matter who the Conservative leader is, the party will still win big in the West, and the social conservatives have nowhere else to park their vote. Until the CPC realises that they will never win big with an Alliance-Reform leader, they'll be stuck stinking it up at 30%, when any party worth its salt with these conditions should be at 40%+!
By
Anonymous, at 1:24 p.m.
cg, youre a great guy, but im going to have to throw you a big ole WTF in light of your favourable description of james moore. i live on the cusp of port moody, bc, so ive been laughing at the official 'randy from trailer park boys' lookalike of parliament hill because of this statement since 2001:
(from hansard - sep 17/01)
"As the last member for Calgary Southwest made mention, there are evil people in the world. We cannot change the value of life in their hearts and minds .
There are some people on the planet who believe that the world ends when they crash a plane into a building. The only way we can prevent those people from crashing a plane into the building in the first place is with capital punishment."
um. yeah. capital punishment is TOTALLY the best way to go after suicide bombers. way to go, jimbo.
By
ainge lotusland, at 4:03 p.m.
CG, You are probably correct. Harper will resign quickly. Martin may attempt to remain as leader.
Every elected PM since Joe Clark has run in a Quebec riding. Every PM elected with a majority was born in Quebec. It doesn't bode well for anyone on the list except Charet, Dumont or an unknown Insane Right Winger from Quebec.
Given how many people like Duceppe, maybe we just like Quebecers the most.
By
Psychols, at 5:59 p.m.
John Tory, but not this time though.
By
Anonymous, at 8:34 p.m.
Insane right-winger from Quebec? Jeff Fillion!!! ;-)
I'm in the "I think Harper will win" camp.
By
The Tiger, at 10:11 p.m.
Well, one thing is all but certain.
Either Martin or Harper will be gone after the next election depending on who wins or loses.
On the Liberal side, I'd say Frank McKenna would easily be the replacement front-runner.
On the Conservative side, my best guess would be Bernard Lord or Peter McKay, depending on who does or doesn't run.
Neither Stronach nor Harris has a hope in hell of winning. Harris has far too much baggage (can you say Walkerton) and Stronach is just, well, totally incompetent.
As for who will win the election, I'd put my money on Harper if he gets one this spring.
By
Anonymous, at 12:26 a.m.
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