Friday, May 06, 2005

Lost in the Shuffle

With all the accusations being thrown around by the charming scamp and the very important twisting of every harmless comment anyone says into a loaded racist remark, a lot of other very interesting developments are being lost in the shuffle. Here's a quick run-down of some other news stories:



-Did I call it, or did I call it! It's David Kilgour's turn to govern. Man, if Carolyn Parrish hadn't tilted her hand and said she'd back the Liberals, Paul Martin would be burning George Bush effigies on Parliament Hill right now.


-The latest Pollara numbers are out. A lot more interesting than the horse race numbers are two other nuggets buried in the story

"A new poll revealed a more Canadians support a spring federal election than oppose it, and a majority don't buy Martin's warning that a Conservative victory would threaten national unity.

The Pollara poll contradicts other recent surveys that have indicated most Canadians don't want a snap vote on the heels of allegations of Liberal corruption at the Gomery inquiry into the sponsorship scandal.

Forty-five per cent of the 1,255 Canadians surveyed from April 25 to May 1 said they support a spring election, compared to 41 per cent who are opposed.
Pollara chairman Michael Marzolini said the numbers actually turn in Conservative leader Stephen Harper's favour because he asked if respondents "support" a spring election.

"We're not saying: 'Do people want an election?' "People don't want elections just as they don't want wars or trips to the dentist, but they'll support them if they're necessary, he said.

The poll also raises questions about Mr. Martin's recent declaration that Mr. Harper, if he becomes prime minister after defeating the government with Bloc Quebecois support, threatens national unity.

Of those surveyed, 39 per cent said Mr. Harper's election would have no impact, while another 13 per cent said he's less of a threat than Mr. Martin. Another 24 per cent said Mr. Harper is a greater threat, while the same percentage didn't know or refused to say."

Finally, someone digs through the whole "do you want an election" spin. Of course no one wants an election. You could ask people four years into a mandate if they want an election and a good percentage will say they don't. That's why 40% of Canadians don't vote! In addition, as Parliament becomes more and more disfunctional by the day, I suspect more and more people will support an election.

Also interesting are the numbers showing that the national unity card isn't exactly the one the Liberals should be playing. This is a little disappointing for me because I've been salivating at the prospect of Jean Lapierre saying the Conservatives are in bed with the Bloc for five straight weeks but c'est la vie. Scare tactics are likely the way for Martin to go but given the PM's reputation for not being very solid on unity ("a million lost jobs", waffling on the Clarity bill, all the asymmetrical federalism goodness) and the fact that the surge in separatist feelings was caused by Adscam, I'd say that's about the worst topic they could scare people on.

-I hope everyone has been paying attention to the man who wants to be the Liberal Party's next leader. I think Adam Radwanski put it best:

And here, you thought Joe Volpe was unremarkable. You know, it's not just anyone
who can
pick a fight with Ezra Levant, and make Ezra look calm and rational by
comparison.

-Paul Wells thinks Lucienne Robillard (who?) should dispute the latest pro-separation propaganda spewed by the PQ. Personally, I think this would be a great opportunity for either Paul Martin or Stephen Harper to look like a Prime Minister.

-Finally, Tony Blair has done it again. Love him or hate him, you have to admit the guy is a leader, if nothing else.

12 Comments:

  • *Labour* has done it again. I'd personally be hard-pressed to believe that the UK voted for Blair over the Labour Party, especially since the Chancellor of the Exchequer is expected to take the Downing street within the next few months. Blair is finished.

    By Blogger Sigma-6, at 4:57 AM  

  • Calgrit:

    Be careful of putting your commentary analysis in the Pollara basket. The new SES polll out (Written about by yours truly at BlogsCanada) shows the Libs are leading 36-30-18.

    By Blogger Scott Tribe, at 5:33 AM  

  • We are seeing weird, weird polls.

    If I'm not mistaken, this is the same Pollara poll that showed the Conservatives with a 5 or 6 point lead a couple of days ago, and the National Post is using the trick of releasing the hard poll results one day, and the softer questions the next.

    That poll conflicts strongly with another poll done for CP and released just the day before. Margin of error doesn't seem to be account for the difference (although I don't have all the details, as I refuse to read the National Post), so one is an outlier. Because there's no obvious events driving the Pollara poll, I think it smells like the outlier.

    And now a new poll showing the opposite? Either public opinion is rocking back and forth like a lunatic trapped in a straitjacket, or at least one of these polls is out to lunch.

    By Blogger wonderdog, at 11:02 AM  

  • 1. CG: great post.

    2. On polls: all I pay attention to is "how will you vote?". And only the Ontario 905 matters. Upshot is dead heat.

    3. It is curious that Harper isn't taking the separatist bait. Is he that worried about risking his possible two quebec city/riviere du loup seats there that he wouldn't jump on the chance to grab some more 905?

    By Blogger matt, at 11:23 AM  

  • Labour or Tony Blair responsible? We'll see after the next election, once they've dumped Blair for his finance minister, Gordon Brown.

    I have a suspicion that people will find that it was a lot of Tony Blair, himself. But we shall see. :-)

    By Blogger The Tiger, at 1:12 PM  

  • I'm of the (fairly well-supported, IMO) opinion that the seats Labour lost (Shakespeare?) were lost over Blair, and that anything they lost they will gain back in the next election, provided Brown has some reasonable charisma.

    By Blogger Sigma-6, at 2:19 PM  

  • The Blair/Brown thing is interesting because it's a carbon copy repeat of the Chretien/Martin chism here.

    My hunch is that Brown may have a similar fate to Martin, but I don't follow British politics that closely so that's just wild speculation on my part. I think it's pretty clear that Conservatives will need to drop Howard.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 3:52 PM  

  • Howard announced that he's stepping down as Conservative Leader.

    By Blogger daveberta, at 4:00 PM  

  • sorry, not "stepping down", he's "standing down"

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4521941.stm

    By Blogger daveberta, at 4:03 PM  

  • And the key figure. Harper is not really much closer to becoming PM than he was in 2004.

    By Blogger Psychols, at 9:49 PM  

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