Maybe he's running for the BC Liberal Leadership...

Prentice and the Tory caucus, in happier times

Sadly, he's not resigning in furor over the potash deal. There isn't a hidden scandal involving Chinese pandas. He's not in any way involved with Julie Couillard.

Rather, Jim Prentice will resign as an MP to take a Vice-President position at CIBC. I'm not up on my conflict-of-interest rules, but I'm sure the Tories will assure us this doesn't breach any ethical guidelines and the Liberals will assure us it most certainly does.

Well, that's the official explanation for his departure. The more truthful one is that being Stephen Harper's environment minister is a miserable job that is quietly killing Prentice's soul and/or leadership ambitions. So, bon voyage Jim - we'll look you up when Stephen Harper or Ed Stelmach announce their resignations.

As for what it all means, we'll have a by election in Calgary - I'll leave it to the good people at Pundits Guide to speculate on timing, though I suspect it will get rolled up with the other two by elections we have coming down the pipe (one for a Bloc seat in Quebec, the other in Jay Hill's BC riding). Being Calgary, (spoiler alert!) the Conservatives will win that by election (though to downplay expectations the PMO will let Jane Taber know it's the Liberals' seat to lose).

I know it won't happen, but if anyone wants to speculate about Dave Bronconnier making a jump to federal politics, this would be a good time to do that. Calgary Centre-North one of the most Liberal-friendly ridings in the city, a popular moderate incumbent is leaving, and a by election entry point would let Bronconnier win on his name rather than on the Liberal brand. Toss in frustration among the Tory base over wild spending, and this is about as good a chance as Bronco's ever going to get. Hell, the city's even in a "let's go wild" kind of mood, having just elected Naheed Nenshi as mayor. Maybe they'd be crazy enough to vote in a Liberal!

But assuming Bronco doesn't run, the more interesting side effect of this is the inevitable Cabinet shuffle speculation we're about to be subjected to. John Baird will act as interim environment minister but assuming "interim" actually means "interim" (and this isn't like "Canada's new government") someone else will eventually inherit the portfolio.

As mentioned above, it's not exactly a prize job. I have no clue who Harper will choose, though I'm guessing it's likely someone whose leadership ambitions Harper is looking to crush.

Shamelessly Partisan Anti-Conservative News Bits

1. This Couillard thing keeps getting more and more intriguing, even two and a half weeks after the Minister's resignation. An aid in Michael Fortier's office is gone, after it's revealed he dated Couillard. And accusations of influence peddling are flying! Will the fun never end?


2. Does it make me a bad person to be glad that Pierre Polievre is in trouble?


3. Meet the new Judge Gomery - Jeffrey Oliphant. And it didn't take long for the first conflict of interest connection to emerge (I personally don't think it's a big deal that Mulroney appointed him, but I'll be curious to see if the opposition/media latch on to this at all).

Munsinger Deux

L'Affair Bernier's Briefs, as I think I will hereafter call it, has certainly proven to be a far sexier scandal than Cadscam, the In & Out scandal, or even Mulroney-Schreiber. It was front page news for the third consecutive day in Canada, and has been grabbing international headlines, including a front page story in Italy.

The latest highlights:

1. The Liberals are alleging that CSIS met with Harper about Bernier and Couillard weeks ago.

2. The NDP are alleging that Bernier carelessly left his briefing files out on an airplane.

3. Don Martin floats the bizarre theory that Bernier was "set up" (to take the blame, not with Couillard).

4. Chris Selly at Macleans is trying out "the leave-behind affair" as a possible name for the scandal. He also finds this gem of an article from Peter Worthington:

"Supposedly, the cabinet documents contained data about Afghanistan. Big deal," Peter Worthington scoffs in the Toronto Sun. "It's a challenge to imagine anything about our role in Afghanistan that could be damaging."

5. The Globe has the latest Cabinet Shuffle speculation, indicating it will be a "small" shuffle then talking about the need to replace Bernier, Toews, Emerson (at Trade), and Guergis, while promoting Jason Kenney, a Quebec MP or two, James Moore, and James Rajotte. Which is just cruel to the last two - why get their hopes up yet again, only to have Harper crush them?

Things I Now Care About

Maxime Bernier's ex-girlfriends.

What looked like a non-issue a week ago has exploded with the surprising firing/resignation of Maxime Bernier, ending a rather underwhelming year as foreign affairs minister. Once touted as a possible heir to Harper, his political future is pretty much toast:

Maxime Bernier has resigned as foreign affairs minister, after he acknowledged leaving sensitive government documents out in the open -- apparently at his former girlfriend's home.

Sources told CTV News the documents included classified information for last April's NATO summit in Romania. One sensitive document contained details about NATO's military strategy in Afghanistan.

Leaving your stuff at an ex's is always awkward, so I'd image when it's confidential NATO files, "awkward" doesn't even begin to describe it.

So Bernier is out and the former Liberal David Emerson becomes Harper's third foreign affairs minister, with a shuffle expected this summer, at which point some other poor sucker will get the job. Although it's a difficult portfolio, I can't for the life of me imagine them faring any worse than Bernier, who has now given Harper one of the larger black eyes of his time as PM thus far.