Exodus

In addition to Stock, Chuck Strahl and John Cummins have also announced they won't run again. While the opposition will certainly try to paint this as a case of Tories jumping ship, that's a tough spin. Cummins is 69. Strahl's health problems are well document. Day's been in politics for a quarter century. Moreover, it's not like any of the three were in any remote danger of losing their seats.

One bit of spin that might have some truth to it is the claim the Tory front bench is looking weaker and weaker by the day. True or not, the perception out there is that Jim Prentice, Chuck Strahl, and Stockwell Day were three of the strongest Tory ministers. Once you take away Ministers currently or formerly embroiled in scandal, or the lesser known Keith Ashfields of this world, there aren't a lot of stalwarts left. Sure, there's the Harris gang, Peter McKay, and a few reasonably competent Ministers from Quebec. But they all lack the kind of cross-partisan respect Prentice and Strahl were given.

Politically, it won't make a huge difference - by both perception and decree, this is very much the Harper government. But if Harper is re-elected and can't inject some fresh blood into his government, he'll have a thin bench...which might very well lead to more Bev Oda-ish mishaps in the future.

Maybe he's running for the BC Liberal Leadership...

Prentice and the Tory caucus, in happier times

Sadly, he's not resigning in furor over the potash deal. There isn't a hidden scandal involving Chinese pandas. He's not in any way involved with Julie Couillard.

Rather, Jim Prentice will resign as an MP to take a Vice-President position at CIBC. I'm not up on my conflict-of-interest rules, but I'm sure the Tories will assure us this doesn't breach any ethical guidelines and the Liberals will assure us it most certainly does.

Well, that's the official explanation for his departure. The more truthful one is that being Stephen Harper's environment minister is a miserable job that is quietly killing Prentice's soul and/or leadership ambitions. So, bon voyage Jim - we'll look you up when Stephen Harper or Ed Stelmach announce their resignations.

As for what it all means, we'll have a by election in Calgary - I'll leave it to the good people at Pundits Guide to speculate on timing, though I suspect it will get rolled up with the other two by elections we have coming down the pipe (one for a Bloc seat in Quebec, the other in Jay Hill's BC riding). Being Calgary, (spoiler alert!) the Conservatives will win that by election (though to downplay expectations the PMO will let Jane Taber know it's the Liberals' seat to lose).

I know it won't happen, but if anyone wants to speculate about Dave Bronconnier making a jump to federal politics, this would be a good time to do that. Calgary Centre-North one of the most Liberal-friendly ridings in the city, a popular moderate incumbent is leaving, and a by election entry point would let Bronconnier win on his name rather than on the Liberal brand. Toss in frustration among the Tory base over wild spending, and this is about as good a chance as Bronco's ever going to get. Hell, the city's even in a "let's go wild" kind of mood, having just elected Naheed Nenshi as mayor. Maybe they'd be crazy enough to vote in a Liberal!

But assuming Bronco doesn't run, the more interesting side effect of this is the inevitable Cabinet shuffle speculation we're about to be subjected to. John Baird will act as interim environment minister but assuming "interim" actually means "interim" (and this isn't like "Canada's new government") someone else will eventually inherit the portfolio.

As mentioned above, it's not exactly a prize job. I have no clue who Harper will choose, though I'm guessing it's likely someone whose leadership ambitions Harper is looking to crush.

Just when they got rid of Garth Turner...

...the Tories have a new "maverick", it appears. BC MP John Cummins decided to end whatever faint hopes he ever had of making it to Cabinet by ripping Jim Prentice a new one earlier this week:

OTTAWA–A Vancouver-area Conservative MP has caused a stir by accusing federal Indian Affairs Minister Jim Prentice and his provincial counterpart of bribing natives into accepting a controversial provincial treaty.

Tory MP John Cummins (Delta-Richmond East) says Prentice and B.C. Aboriginal Relations Minister Mike de Jong are knowingly manipulating the Tsawwassen treaty ratification vote by throwing money at the band.

"They are unfit for office," Cummins told the Toronto Star last week.

If it wasn't the summer and I had a bit more energy to devote to this thing, I'd probably try and find some of John Cummins quotes to show that he's "unfit for office", but I think the story is enjoyable enough by itself.


In Other News...

-While they didn't find a female candidate for Outremont, at least they found one with a feminine name. Jocelyn Coulon is the candidate who will be trying to fill Jean Lapierre's shoes and it looks like he's a very strong candidate. Expect a good race between the Liberals and NDP for this one.


-And...we're...all...tied...up. 31-31 in the latest Allan Gregg poll. More interesting is the low support for the Afghanistan mission which, one imagines, will be causing Harper some concern, especially in Quebec.


-Oh, and Adam Radwanski's tour around the blogosphere continues - this time he's landed at the Globe & Mail.