Henninger Chokes

(UPDATED - SEE BOTTOM OF POST FOR FULL ANALYSIS)






Calgary Elbow
Cheffins (Lib) 46%
Henninger (PC) 38%
Reed (Gre) 6%
Greydanus (AA) 4%
Brown (NDP) 3%
Grover (SC) 2%
Willerton (Ind) 1%


Drumheller- Stettler
Hayden (PC) 58%
Dooley (Lib) 14%
Davidson (SC) 12%
Rew (Ind) 7%
France (AA) 5%
Wigmore (Gre) 3%
Bough (NDP) 1%


Full analysis tomorrow but, for now, let me say: I could get used to this...

A few morning after thoughts...

-Don't read anything into this as far as the federal voting intent in Alberta.

-On a completely self-indulgent point, I'm fairly pleased I managed to call Elbow nearly bang on.

-That said, my Drumheller predictions sucked. Liberal Tom Dooley won 9 of 13 polls in Drumheller, but got absolutely obliterated outside of the city. If there's any doubt about the Tory base, look no further than Big Valley, home of the creationist museum, where the Tories beat the Liberals by a 35 to 1 margin. I'd say rural Alberta is set to march behind the PCs yet again.

-There are still some positives for the Liberals to take out of the Drumheller byelection. If they can break through in some of Alberta's small to mid sized cities, there are ridings to be won outside of Calgary and Edmonton.

-How much does it suck to be an Alberta Alliance member today. Sure, Elbow was always a write-off for them. And, sure, they didn't have a very strong candidate running in Drumheller-Stettler but...fifth place? In the heart of rural Alberta, they lost to the "NEP Party", a party that hasn't existed for thirty years, and a crazy pro-Alberta independence independent candidate. Ouch.

-The news isn't much better for the NDP, coming 5th in Elbow and 7th in Drumheller.

-The win in Elbow will be huge from a momentum stand-point for the ALP and should help them attract volunteers and candidates over the next year, leading up to the next election.

-While it's dangerous to read too much into byelections and stupid to extrapolate those results to other ridings...what the heck, let's give it a try.

Adjusting the Elbow vote through to the rest of the City of Calgary, gives the Liberals 8 seats next election, the PCs 8 seats, and leaves 7 as too close to call (within 5% either way). Given the Liberals need at least 15 seats in Calgary to have any chance of forming government, that shows there's a still a long way to go...but at least they're in the game.

Out of the Blue?

One of the most hotly contested byelection campaigns in Alberta's history wraps up tonight as Calgary Elbow residents vote for the MLA to replace Ralph Klein. The Tories have burned through $200,000 of taxpayer dollars to send out pamphlets across the province, they've re-re-re-re-announced funding for a South Calgary hospital, and they even rolled Jim Dinning out last week to drum up support for his next leadership bid Brian Henninger's campaign. In an absolutely bizarre twist, Henninger seems to be running on an "anti-Ed" platform, promising to choke the Premier if elected. The election is being hyped as Ed Stelmach's Alamo and an Ederendum, with the conventional wisdom being that we're in store for a photo finish.

There will be less suspense for the Drumheller vote tonight, in a riding the PCs have traditionally won by 6-1 or 7-1 vote ratios. But, if Elbow is Stelmach's Calgary litmus test, Drumheller is his rural one and it will be interesting to see if any erosion has occurred in the party base.

I was out in Drumheller on the weekend with some other Liberals to help door knock and I must say I was absolutely blown away by the support for Liberal candidate Tom Dooley in the poll I was in. For the first hour, I honestly felt like I was in the GTA, rather than rural Alberta (well...maybe that's pushing it...let's say Edmonton). I wouldn't be at all surprised if Tom picks up a few polls in Drumheller due to his personal popularity and anger over the Balzac water transfer. The rest of the riding is still pretty anti-Liberal (damn that Sifton! damn that Rutherford!), but just getting a candidate of Tom Dooley's local profile to run for the ALP gives them some credibility in rural Alberta. Oh, and I can't let a post about the Drumheller byelection pass without mentioning John Rew who is...well...I'll let his website speak for himself.

Byelections are weird creatures and hard to predict. Between low voter turn-out and the absense of any real polls, you're really going on gut alone so any predictions almost ensure the predictor will look like an idiot afterwards. That said, here are my entries in a pool I'm in...maybe I'm being a little overly optimistic for the home team, but what the hell:



Calgary Elbow

Liberals 45%
PC 38%
Alliance 7%
Greens 6%
NDP 3% (The NDP will no doubt receive a boost by having Brian Mason run in both ridings)



Drumheller-Stettler
PC 45%
Liberals 22%
Alliance 18%
Greens 6%
Social Credit 4%


I'll be down at Cheffins headquaters tonight and, having just now learned how to do mobile blogging, will post the vote totals from Elbow and Drumheller as soon as they come in [since I expect all of my Ontario readers will be up late, eagerly awaiting the results].

Henninger on Stelmach

Last week, I decided to take a break from bashing Ed Stelmach, to allow Ed Stelmach to bash Ed Stelmach.

Today, I cede the podium to Brian Henninger, who is running for Stelmach's PCs in Tuesday's incredibly important Calgary Elbow by election:

CALGARY — Brian Heninger’s message at a doorstep in Calgary-Elbow seems downright bizarre from a candidate running for a party that has governed Alberta for more than 35 years.

“I’d choke our premier,” Heninger says to the disgruntled voter, the latest in a string of citizens who have expressed frustration with Progressive Conservative Premier Ed Stelmach.

With friends like these...


INCREDIBLY ENTERTAINING UPDATE:

Ed Stelmach has weighed in and he agrees that Ed Stelmach should be choked:

According to reports, [Henninger] told a constituent at the door he would like to "choke" Stelmach. The premier said that kind of enthusiasm is exactly what he wants in his MLAs.

Ed should be careful what he wishes for, because if things continue like this, he may find himself with a few more "enthusiastic" MLAs in his caucus...

Signs "R" Us

Consevative Calgay Elbow candidate Bian Heninger's campaign headquaters is missing that cetain something...

Hat Tip: Davebeta

Phrases I Never Thought I'd See in the Calgary Sun

"In Calgary, it seems to be permissible to call yourself a Liberal. In public."