Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Henninger Chokes

(UPDATED - SEE BOTTOM OF POST FOR FULL ANALYSIS)






Calgary Elbow
Cheffins (Lib) 46%
Henninger (PC) 38%
Reed (Gre) 6%
Greydanus (AA) 4%
Brown (NDP) 3%
Grover (SC) 2%
Willerton (Ind) 1%


Drumheller- Stettler
Hayden (PC) 58%
Dooley (Lib) 14%
Davidson (SC) 12%
Rew (Ind) 7%
France (AA) 5%
Wigmore (Gre) 3%
Bough (NDP) 1%


Full analysis tomorrow but, for now, let me say: I could get used to this...



A few morning after thoughts...

-Don't read anything into this as far as the federal voting intent in Alberta.

-On a completely self-indulgent point, I'm fairly pleased I managed to call Elbow nearly bang on.

-That said, my Drumheller predictions sucked. Liberal Tom Dooley won 9 of 13 polls in Drumheller, but got absolutely obliterated outside of the city. If there's any doubt about the Tory base, look no further than Big Valley, home of the creationist museum, where the Tories beat the Liberals by a 35 to 1 margin. I'd say rural Alberta is set to march behind the PCs yet again.

-There are still some positives for the Liberals to take out of the Drumheller byelection. If they can break through in some of Alberta's small to mid sized cities, there are ridings to be won outside of Calgary and Edmonton.

-How much does it suck to be an Alberta Alliance member today. Sure, Elbow was always a write-off for them. And, sure, they didn't have a very strong candidate running in Drumheller-Stettler but...fifth place? In the heart of rural Alberta, they lost to the "NEP Party", a party that hasn't existed for thirty years, and a crazy pro-Alberta independence independent candidate. Ouch.

-The news isn't much better for the NDP, coming 5th in Elbow and 7th in Drumheller.

-The win in Elbow will be huge from a momentum stand-point for the ALP and should help them attract volunteers and candidates over the next year, leading up to the next election.

-While it's dangerous to read too much into byelections and stupid to extrapolate those results to other ridings...what the heck, let's give it a try.

Adjusting the Elbow vote through to the rest of the City of Calgary, gives the Liberals 8 seats next election, the PCs 8 seats, and leaves 7 as too close to call (within 5% either way). Given the Liberals need at least 15 seats in Calgary to have any chance of forming government, that shows there's a still a long way to go...but at least they're in the game.

Labels: , ,

27 Comments:

  • To echo the posts on the pevious thread - congrats to all involved. Great to see a break through in my new home town!

    By Blogger Ian, at 2:37 AM  

  • I guess I left Alberta just as things are getting interesting...

    By Blogger Pete, at 3:01 AM  

  • I had thought about going to the party at his HQ, and now I regret not going!

    Oh well, it was still an exciting night! Congrats to Craig and everyone who worked the campaign. Here's to more of the same in the future!

    By Blogger Philosophical Liberal, at 3:03 AM  

  • I agree, I too could get used to this. Lets that this does become more common.

    By Blogger Wild Rose Grit, at 3:18 AM  

  • *choke*
    It's difficult to congratulate a Liberal win, even provincial, but it sounds like your guy worked for it.

    *double-choke*
    We really really really need a grassroots revolution in AB, and based on tonight's results, the Alliance isn't it.

    By Blogger Candace, at 3:18 AM  

  • I dunno, we didn't get the 'magic number' of 48%, according to our good friend "kevin daft". So how is this any better than a resounding rejection of the Alberta Liberals in Calgary?

    ;)

    By Blogger James L., at 4:08 AM  

  • Liberals still gotta figure out a way to win rurally....

    By Blogger Sean Cummings, at 8:24 AM  

  • Bravo!

    I never thought I'd applaud a Liberal victory in Calgary, but it makes me so proud for a few reasons:

    1. Calgarians are not mindless sheep at the voting booth.

    2. You can't feed us crap in a nice label and expect us to eat it.

    3. We WILL vote for a Liberal (or basically anything) if you don't give us any other good choice.

    Well done, my Calgary Elbow neighbours!!

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 10:37 AM  

  • The Alberta Alliance has got to be disappointed with those numbers; heck, they did almost as well in Calgary as they did in Drumheller.

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 11:01 AM  

  • Congrats to Craig Cheffins. Heard him speak on a few occasions, and he sounds like a decent guy who believes in what he is doing. He knocked on a lot of doors and worked hard at campaigning, and it's paid off.

    I think this will send a message to Albertans that they don't have to be scared to vote for change. Hopefully they will listen to this message.

    By Blogger Mercury Rising, at 11:27 AM  

  • You might think I'd be sad to see a Tory lose but in this case, you'd be wrong.

    The Alberta PCs need their feet held to the fire. A strong Alberta Liberal party is the best way for that to happen.

    By Blogger ALW, at 11:31 AM  

  • "We really really really need a grassroots revolution in AB"

    It would really be nice if people would just vote. When 19,000 (and 14,541 in Drumheller) grassroots people stay home it doesn't seem like a revolution (for anyone) is imminent.

    By Blogger Allie, at 12:09 PM  

  • May this Tory add his congratulations to Craig Cheffins. Even though I voted for Henninger, my new MLA is a decent sort who looks as if he'll be a hard worker. BTW, there's an interesting analysis by Roy Clancy. It's quite thoughtful and respectful, unlike the immature ranting and ruralphobic bigotry from Rick Bell (whom I refuse to link to).

    By Blogger Brian in Calgary, at 12:33 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by the author.

    By Blogger Andy, at 12:52 PM  

  • I too will echo congratulations to a Liberal win, as much as it hurts (man does it hurt!)

    Candace and ALW are correct, the provincial PC's need to understand this is a wake up call, and not just in Calgary. They need to get out of the "floating just along" mode that voters perceive them to be in. Klein was floating for probably 1 1/2 years (remember that he said the fire in his belly was gone?), and the perception is that Stelmach is floating now.

    I don't believe this means the Liberals will win the next election, but I would not be surprised that they will have a larger minority. It is the election after the next one I am worried about, and changes need to be done now.

    Congrats to all you Liberal supporters, but don't get too used to the wins... grin.

    By Blogger Andy, at 12:58 PM  

  • Sometimes the populace needs to give the government a little shot across the bow.

    If Stelmach keeps running (or is perceived to be running) a rural vs. urban agenda..he could lose a lot more city seats. Of course, he has some time to right the ship.

    I don't see a wholesale swing to the Libs just yet. Elbow would have always been a Liberal seat if it wasn't for Klein.

    Nonetheless, a victory is a victory, congrats.

    By Blogger le politico, at 1:33 PM  

  • what was the turnout overall ??

    By Blogger Fred :), at 1:50 PM  

  • About 35-40% in Elbow I think,

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 1:54 PM  

  • One thing I haven't seen mentioned today is the point that the poor showing of the Alliance in Drumheller does not bode well for the Liberals in the future. The liberals need a strong Alliance and Socred vote in order to sneak up the middle in a few close rurual ridings. It seems right now with yesterday's results that the Tories will own the rural areas for a long time to come.
    Maybe I'm reading into things a bit too much...?

    By Blogger Fother, at 3:42 PM  

  • You make it sound as though the Liberals haven't won a seat provincially in Alberta in thirty years. The win wasn't against Mr. Klein, and I don't see it as any more or any less than the ALP's other fifteen seats.

    My congratulations go out to both of the successful candidates, with the hope that both will serve Albertans well.

    By Blogger paul.obeda@, at 4:45 PM  

  • How much does it suck to be an Alberta Alliance member today.

    I'm sure both of them are devistated.

    By Blogger Nastyboy, at 5:24 PM  

  • "Elbow would have always been a Liberal seat if it wasn't for Klein."
    The seat has been PC since its creation in 1971. Klein was around 18 years.

    It seems right now with yesterday's results that the Tories will own the rural areas for a long time to come.
    Maybe I'm reading into things a bit too much...?

    The Socreds are sneaking in enough to cause some split hopefully

    By Blogger Kyle G. Olsen, at 6:44 PM  

  • I think it wasn't a resurgence of the So-Cred party that got those votes for Larry Davidson so much as it was Davidson's personal appeal. He's pretty well known in Drum, and in fact the So-Creds recently held a policy convention there, in anticipation of this by-election. It appeared from the local media coverage of this convention that the delegates consisted of Davidson, the guy they ran in Elbow, and the leader, who evidently has better things to do then seek a seat in the Leg. I'd say that if we are to see any movement on the far right, it will come from the AA. Hinman is a fairly bright guy, but the candidate he ran was just brutal.

    By Blogger Archie, at 8:37 PM  

  • I don't think it's really accurate to call the So-Creds "far right" anymore - looking at their policies they seem pretty centrist; re-regulation of a lot of things seem to be their raison d'etre.

    By Blogger Glen, at 10:53 PM  

  • I'd just like to say that I think it is hilarious that Drumheller has a creationism museum - considering that dinosaurs are that town's bread and butter.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 12:22 PM  

  • Most interesting outcome...

    The Liberal vote actually went DOWN! (barely)
    2004: 4938 votes
    2007: 4801 votes

    The Liberals won this seat because the Tory voters stayed home (probably because they were unhappy with the government, and Stelmach). Tories didn't vote Liberal, they just didn't vote at all.

    And the Tories were the only party whose supporters stayed home. Green, Alberta Alliance and NDP all stayed about the same, and the socreds actually went up 150%, so it's not like there was a low voter turn-out in general.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 11:06 AM  

  • Actually, there was: 36% turnout in this by-election, versus 52% in 2004.

    The decrease in the Liberal vote was a valid blow against their 2004 gains, but because by-elections almost always have low turnout, I don't think it means too much here.

    Oh, and the creationist museum is in Big Valley, not Drum.

    By Blogger The Invisible Hand, at 1:59 AM  

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home