Sunday, April 03, 2011

Wisdom of the Crowds: Races to Watch

At the call of the election, I asked Calgary Grit readers to answer 20 questions about the campaign. Here's what those who entered had to say:

Will Elizabeth May win here seat?

One-in-five (21%) say she will. For what it's worth, I think national Green support will drop this campaign, but I do think May will take her seat. She's been working the riding for over a year, and most Liberal and NDP voters will rally behind her.

Will the Conservatives sweep Alberta?

Close to half (46%) say they will. I'm going to go out on a limb and say they only take 26 of 28. Linda Duncan holds in Edmonton Strathcona and Independent James Ford takes Edmonton-Sherwood Park.

Will Julian Fantino hold his seat?

Two-in-three (67%) think he will. A lot will depend on how the national campaign goes, but I'd bet on a hold if I had to.

Mulcair or Cauchon in Outremont?

Close to three-in-four (73%) pick Mulcair. Truth be told, I have a tough time predicting this one - it's likely the best local race in the entire country, with two leadership aspirants for their respective parties duking it out. Gun to my head, I'd say Mulcair, but I could certainly be wrong. It has traditionally been a Liberal seat, and Cauchon was a well liked MP.

(For the mean seat total guesses, click here)


  • Yeah, she might win (May)...

    ... she's squandered all the potential the Greens had built up 5 years ago. I hope she loses and exits.

    Oh, who am I kidding -- she could lose the next 3 elections and stay Leader.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 3:58 PM  

  • May got them into the debates - Harris couldn't do it, and I doubt Chernushenko could have.

    In my view her bitterly anti-conservative views have cost the party money, voters, volunteers and credibility, but that pales in comparison to what they would have lost without a spot in the debate.

    And there's no way they would have been invited if their leader weren't a left-wing woman.

    By Blogger Robert Vollman, at 5:58 PM  

  • Other than Elizabeth May winning Saanich-Gulf Islands I have to agree. As someone somewhat familiar with the riding, it is not as favourable as many think. The Gulf Islands will no doubt rally behind her, but most of the population lives in Saanich which is generally full of your older middle class suburban voters and unlike the other Vancouver Island ridings has a low rate of unionization so by nature it is fairly Conservative. Provincially, Saanich-North and the Islands has almost always gone for the pro-free enterprise coalition in BC (be it the BC Liberals or Social Credit) and this is more evenly split. Saanich South and the Gordon Head portion of Oak Bay-Gordon Head are more competitive, but those would more likely be NDP or Liberal votes and while some will swing behind May and don't think all will.

    By Blogger Miles Lunn, at 6:52 PM  

  • I can't say what Chernushenko coulda/woulda done.

    I doubt he would have, say, run against a popular incumbent Cabinet Minister in his and his ex-MP dad's hometown. There were ridings May could have won, which she ignored.

    A seat in Parliament would have guaranteed them a spot in subsequent debates. The spot she got in the debate gained them nothing at all.

    I really think she doesn't want to win and prefers a responsibility-free soapbox. Just an opinion with no facts.

    And there's no way they would have been invited if their leader weren't a left-wing woman.

    I remain to be convinced of this.

    Green support was high in polls and the national buzz on the Greens making a breakthrough was in every story - it was the height of the global warming scare (without googling, I'd guess it was even before they invented "climate change" to replace "global warming").

    I can't say if Chernushenko could have got them in the debates... but his odds would have been decent. I think most leaders would have focused their game on winnable ridings, which would have proved far more fruitful in the long-term. She is a disaster.

    Her anger and contempt have certainly cost them ground, you are right. It's damage that will linger after she's finally gone.


    I'd like a more rational, goal-oriented leader to replace her after another defeat. I bet they'll keep her, but it's fun to make-believe.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 7:19 PM  

  • Jack Layton was on Tout Le Monde En Parle tonite. I guess more of them will appear during April.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 8:53 PM  

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