Friday, March 25, 2011

Calgary Grit Election Pool - 20 Questions

Anyone can predict seat totals or popular vote. That's just the end result. The real excitement in an election is the journey - the campaign itself. With that in mind, I present the third (almost) annual Calgary Grit Potpourri election pool. Twenty questions to determine just how well you can predict the upcoming campaign.

While there is no prize for the winner, this is your chance to be immortalized forever and ever alongside previous winners Saskatchewan Grit and HoserToHoosier. Simply reply to this post with your predictions or e-mail them in to calgarygrit@gmail.com. Or, better yet, print off the questions and start up your own office pool.

1. Will Elizabeth May win her seat?

2. Will the Conservatives sweep Alberta?

3. Will Julian Fantino be re-elected?

4. Thomas Mulcair or Martin Cauchon in Outremont?

5. Which polling company's publicly released final numbers will be closest to the actual results?

6. Over/under on the highest level of support the Conservatives will hit in a national election poll - 42%

7. Will the Liberals ever lead in a national election poll?

8. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad? (as judged by yours truly)

9. Which party will run the "best" ad? (as voted on by Calgary Grit readers)

10. Will the words "abortion", "women's right to choose", or some variant, be used in a TV commercial this campaign?

11. Will any Harper Cabinet Ministers appear in an english-language commercial this campaign?

12. Will Harper's sweater vest make an appearance in a Conservative ad?

13. Conservative vote over/under in Crowfoot - 80% (82% the last 2 elections)

14. Voter turn out over/under - 60% (59% last election)

15. How many seats will the Conservatives win in Newfoundland?

16. Number of independent candidates elected?

17. The Bloc. Will they win more or less seats than last election?

18. Will over half the Liberal seats won come from Ontario? (last election, 38 of their 77 wins came from there)

19. Number of times Stephen Harper uses the word "coalition" in the (first) English language debate?

20. Who will the instant-polls show as having won the first English language debate? (based on an average of all debate polls released in the next 24 hours)


Tie-Breaker: Predict the seat totals for each party

43 Comments:

  • You forgot another question:

    Which war room will let out the first botched PR move that blows up in their party's face? (Think pooping puffins or beer and popcorn.)

    By Anonymous Sean Cummings, at 8:07 AM  

  • 1 - yes
    2 - no
    3 - yes
    4 - mulcair
    5 - nanos
    6 - over
    7 - no
    8 - tories
    9 - ndp
    10 - no (not by the major 5)
    11 - no
    12 - yes
    13 - over
    14 - under
    15 - 3
    16 - 0
    17 - less
    18 - no
    19 - 24
    20 - Harper

    cpc - 160
    lib - 60
    bq - 50
    ndp - 40
    grn - 1

    By Blogger ridingBYriding, at 8:19 AM  

  • 1. No
    2. Yes
    3. Yes
    4. Muclair
    5. Angus Reid again
    6. 39%-44% CPC
    7. No brand is damaged beyond repair. Rot runs too deep and LPOC has not been credible alternative in 5 yrs+. Merger in remaining left-progressives next step.
    8. Separatists
    9. CPC
    10. Yes
    11. Yes
    12. No
    13. 80%-84%
    14. 62-65%
    15. 2
    16. 1 -Andre Arthur
    17. Separatists 50
    18. 29 ON-Lib
    19. 12
    20. Lib

    ==============
    CPC 159
    Lib 62
    NDP 36
    SEP 50
    OTH 1

    http://canadiansense.blogspot.com/2011/03/conservative-majority-end-of-political.html

    By Blogger CanadianSense, at 8:53 AM  

  • 1. Yes
    2. No
    3. No
    4. Mulcair
    5. Angus
    6. under
    7. no
    8. NDP
    9. NDP
    10. No
    11. No
    12. No
    13. Under
    14. Over
    15. 1
    16. 2
    17. Less
    18. No
    19. 5
    20. Iggy

    Tie break:
    Libs 113
    CPC 122
    NDP 25
    Bloc 45
    Green 1
    Ind 2

    By Anonymous MackenzieBowell, at 9:27 AM  

  • 1) No
    2) No
    3) Yes
    4) Cauchon
    5) Nanos
    6) Over
    7) Yes
    8) Tories
    9) Tories
    10) Yes
    11) No
    12) Yes
    13) Over
    14) Under
    15) 2
    16) 1
    17) More
    18) Yes
    19) 20
    20) Lib

    =====
    CPC 128
    Lib 97
    NDP 27
    BQ 55
    Other 1

    By Blogger Glen, at 9:28 AM  

  • 1. No.
    2. No.
    3. No.
    4. Martin Cauchon
    5. Ekos
    6. Over
    7. Yes
    8. Con
    9. Lib
    10. Yes
    11. Yes.
    12. Yes.
    13. Under
    14. Over
    15. 0
    16. 1
    17. More
    18. No
    19. 8
    20. Duceppe

    Tie Breaker # of seats

    I'll send it privately.

    By Blogger Jason Cherniak, at 9:34 AM  

  • 1. No
    2. Yes
    3. Yes
    4. Mulcair
    5. Ekos
    6. Under
    7. Yes
    8. Conservatives
    9. Conservatives
    10. No
    11. No
    12. Yes
    13. Over
    14. Over
    15. 1
    16. 1
    17. Less
    18. Yes
    19. 7
    20. Liberals

    CPC: 126
    LIB: 108
    NDP: 30
    BQ: 43
    IND: 1

    By Blogger UWHabs, at 10:01 AM  

  • 1. Will Elizabeth May win her seat?
    No

    2. Will the Conservatives sweep Alberta?
    No

    3. Will Julian Fantino be re-elected?
    Yes

    4. Thomas Mulcair or Martin Cauchon in Outremont?
    Mulcair

    5. Which polling company's publicly released final numbers will be closest to the actual results?
    Nanos

    6. Over/under on the highest level of support the Conservatives will hit in a national election poll - 42%
    Over

    7. Will the Liberals ever lead in a national election poll?
    Yes

    8. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad? (as judged by yours truly)
    Bloc

    9. Which party will run the "best" ad? (as voted on by Calgary Grit readers)
    NDP

    10. Will the words "abortion", "women's right to choose", or some variant, be used in a TV commercial this campaign?
    No

    11. Will any Harper Cabinet Ministers appear in an english-language commercial this campaign?
    No

    12. Will Harper's sweater vest make an appearance in a Conservative ad?
    No

    13. Conservative vote over/under in Crowfoot - 80% (82% the last 2 elections)
    Under

    14. Voter turn out over/under - 60% (59% last election)
    Under

    15. How many seats will the Conservatives win in Newfoundland?
    1

    16. Number of independent candidates elected?
    2

    17. The Bloc. Will they win more or less seats than last election?
    More

    18. Will over half the Liberal seats won come from Ontario? (last election, 38 of their 77 wins came from there)
    No

    19. Number of times Stephen Harper uses the word "coalition" in the (first) English language debate?
    6 (average 1/question)

    20. Who will the instant-polls show as having won the first English language debate? (based on an average of all debate polls released in the next 24 hours)
    Layton

    Tie-Breaker: Predict the seat totals for each party
    Con: 135
    Lib: 80
    NDP: 40
    Bloc: 51
    Green: 0
    Ind: 2

    By Blogger Ian, at 10:52 AM  

  • 1 - No
    2 - No
    3 - Yes
    4 - Mulcair
    5 - Angus Reid Strategies
    6 - Over
    7 - No
    8 - Tories
    9 - NDP
    10 - No
    11 - No
    12 - No
    13 - Under
    14 - Over
    15 - 1
    16 - 0
    17 - More
    18 - Yes
    19 - 15
    20 - Layton

    CPC - 133
    Libs - 80
    BQ - 53
    NDP - 42

    By Blogger DL, at 11:15 AM  

  • 1. Yes.

    2. Yes.

    3. No.

    4. Martin Cauchon

    5. Nanos.

    6. Over.

    7. No.

    8. CPC of course!

    9. NDP

    10. No.

    11. No way.

    12. Yes.

    13. Under.

    14. Under.

    15. 1.

    16. 0.

    17. More.

    18. Yes.

    19. 13.

    20. Ignatieff.

    Tie-Breaker:

    Lib: 114
    CPC: 120
    NDP: 23
    BQ: 50
    Green: 1

    By Blogger A.L., at 11:30 AM  

  • 1. No
    2. Yes
    3. Yes
    4. Cauchon
    5. Nanos
    6. over
    7. No
    8. Libs
    9. Libs
    10. no
    11. Yes
    12. NO
    13. over
    14. under
    15 3
    16 0
    17 less
    18 yes
    19 7
    20 Harper

    Con 175, Libs 58, bloc 48, NDP 27

    By Anonymous Mr Rectifier, at 1:56 PM  

  • 1. Will Elizabeth May win her seat? No.
    2. Will the Conservatives sweep Alberta? No.
    3. Will Julian Fantino be re-elected? Yes.
    4. Thomas Mulcair or Martin Cauchon in Outremont? Mulcair.
    5. Which polling company's publicly released final numbers will be closest to the actual results? Ipsos.
    6. Over/under on the highest level of support the Conservatives will hit in a national election poll - 42% Under.
    7. Will the Liberals ever lead in a national election poll? No.
    8. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad? (as judged by yours truly) Conservatives, no question.
    9. Which party will run the "best" ad? (as voted on by Calgary Grit readers) Green.
    10. Will the words "abortion", "women's right to choose", or some variant, be used in a TV commercial this campaign? No.
    11. Will any Harper Cabinet Ministers appear in an english-language commercial this campaign? No. [What's a Cabinet Minister?]
    12. Will Harper's sweater vest make an appearance in a Conservative ad? Yes. And probably a kitten. Definitely children.
    13. Conservative vote over/under in Crowfoot - 80% (82% the last 2 elections) Over.
    14. Voter turn out over/under - 60% (59% last election) Under.
    15. How many seats will the Conservatives win in Newfoundland? One.
    16. Number of independent candidates elected? None.
    17. The Bloc. Will they win more or less seats than last election? Less.
    18. Will over half the Liberal seats won come from Ontario? (last election, 38 of their 77 wins came from there) No.
    19. Number of times Stephen Harper uses the word "coalition" in the (first) English language debate? Fifteen.
    20. Who will the instant-polls show as having won the first English language debate? (based on an average of all debate polls released in the next 24 hours) Jack Layton.
    Tie-Breaker: Predict the seat totals for each party. Con: 150 Lib: 85 NDP: 27 Bloc: 46 Green: 0 Ind: 0

    By Blogger Marc Bernard, at 2:51 PM  

  • Assuming you'll publish the results to each question? I've taken your suggestion and are using this to run my own pool, with proper credit!

    By Anonymous Crocker Jarmon, at 3:08 PM  

  • 1- No
    2- No (NDP loses Edm/Stra, but Ford wins Edm/Sher)
    3- No
    4- Mulcair
    5- Nanos
    6- Under
    7- No
    8- The CPofC of course
    9- Greens
    10- No
    11- No
    12- No
    13- Over
    14- Under
    15- Two (2)
    16- Three (3)
    17- More
    18- Yes
    19- 11 times
    20- Ignatieff

    Tie Breaker-
    CPC=128
    LPC=94
    NDP=29
    BQ=54
    Other=3

    By Blogger Tof KW, at 3:41 PM  

  • This poll, that poll, what does it matter.

    We have to fight the Harper menace. Michael Ignatieff is the most stupendous leader ever to happen to Canada. We are blessed to have him back in our country after a long, lonely absence.

    Courage, mes rouges!! We Liberals were destined to rule Canada and shape its future into the happy paradise that only We Liberals can bring to it.

    I have no doubt people will see how much better their lives would be in the care of our leader. Only his wisdom will bring happiness to the masses.

    By Anonymous Canadians for Ignatieff, at 4:16 PM  

  • Crocker - Once I close this (Monday or Tuesday), I'll sum up the totals and post on the averages...kind of a "wisdom of the masses" sort of exercise.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 6:40 PM  

  • 1. No
    2. No
    3. Yes
    4. Cauchon
    5. Ekos
    6. +3
    7. No :(
    8. Conservatives
    9. NDP
    10. No
    11. No
    12. Yes
    13. -3%
    14. +1%
    15. 1
    16. 1
    17. more
    18. No
    19. 11
    20. Statistical tie

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:59 PM  

  • 1. No
    2. No
    3. Yes
    4. Cauchon
    5. Ekos
    6. Under
    7. Yes
    8. Liberals
    9. NDP
    10. Yes
    11. No
    12. No - they don't want that again
    13. 82%
    14. Over
    15. 2
    16. 0
    17. More
    18. Yes (its almost impossible for them not to)
    19. 20-30
    20. Harper

    Tie Breaker -

    Cons 130
    Libs 95
    Bloc 51
    NDP 32

    By Blogger Volkov, at 7:19 PM  

  • 1. No.

    The rest, I don't know. :)

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 7:53 PM  

  • All the comments I scan over contain many references to the three-way split of progressive votes.

    Why can't the NDP and LPC and GPC co-operate here? If "60% of the electorate doesn't want Harper", then it's incumbent on progressive Leaders to co-operate and make that happen.

    We all saw Lord Of The Rings, we all know how WWII ended. Allies stick together and win, or they splinter and increase their odds of losing.

    Kids can figure this stuff out.

    I don't "want" an election because there's really no one to vote for. NO leader today inspires me to want them in. If someone could find some way to put aside their differences for what they claim to believe is in the best interests of the Federation, then maybe there'd be a reason to hold my nose and vote for one of these parties in my riding.

    Canada is about co-operation and working together. There's Liberal-strong ridings, there's NDP-strong ridings, throw Saanich to May and find 1 or 2 ridings with decent Green support, and sign some truces -- if progressive leadership can't find some, gee I dunno, "common ground in the progressive fight", then they all deserve to lose to "the evil Stephen Harpergovernment bogeyman".

    I'll probably vote for the Tory candidate in my riding if the progressives can't ORGANIZE themselves in "the most important election ever about the fundamental question of democracy". Can't organize a victory over someone "60% of folks can't stand"? Then fly a kite and get out of the way.

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 8:15 PM  

  • ...comments I scan over in election-coverage newspaper articles...

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 8:17 PM  

  • Damn it, my seat projection may have been low if its going to keep going like this
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okrouXVANsM&feature=player_embedded

    By Anonymous mr rectifier, at 11:33 PM  

  • Sean Cummings said...
    You forgot another question:

    Which war room will let out the first botched PR move that blows up in their party's face? (Think pooping puffins or beer and popcorn.)


    Actually, that one's my game. Dan, you gave the gaffe-o-meter a pass in your pool this time around, I see.

    1. no
    2. no
    3. no
    4. Mulcair
    5. Ekos
    6. Over, but it won't hold.
    7. no
    8. Tories
    9. Tories
    10. no
    11. Not a Conservative commercial. A Liberal ad, maybe.
    12. yes
    13. under
    14. over
    15. zero
    16. one
    17. more
    18. no
    19. sixteen
    20. Ignatieff

    Tie-break

    Con 118
    Liberal 97
    BQ 54
    NDP 39

    By Blogger Don, at 12:00 AM  

  • I propose an additional question: how many days will it take for Ignatieff to actually answer the coalition question? :)

    1. No
    2. Yes
    3. Yes
    4. Mulcair
    5. Angus Reid
    6. Over (it's already happened...)
    7. No
    8. Conservatives
    9. NDP
    10. No
    11. Yes
    12. No
    13. Over
    14. Over
    15. 3
    16. 1
    17. More
    18. No
    19. 7
    20. Layton

    CPC 163
    LPC 59
    BQ 51
    NDP 34
    Ind 1
    Grn 0

    By Anonymous The Invisible Hand, at 3:10 AM  

  • 1. Yes
    2. Yes
    3. Yes
    4. Mulclair
    5. Nanos
    6. Over
    7. No
    8. Cons
    9. Libs
    10. No
    11. No
    12. Not a chance
    13. Over
    14. Over
    15. 2
    16. 0
    17. Less
    18. No
    19. 16
    20. M.I.

    By Anonymous Brent, at 6:50 AM  

  • 1. Yes
    2. No
    3. Yes
    4. Mulcair
    5. Nanos
    6. Under
    7. Yes
    8. The Tories (duh!)
    9. NDP
    10. No
    11. No, not a national one
    12. No, but something equally goody-goody
    13. Over
    14. Over
    15. One
    16. One, or zero if Andre Arthur officially joins the Tories
    17. Yes
    18. Yes
    19. Thirteen
    20. Layton

    CPC: 116
    LPC: 100
    NDP: 39
    BQ: 51
    Green: 1
    Other: 1

    By Blogger saphorr, at 5:39 PM  

  • sorry, for #17 where I said "yes" I meant "more".

    By Blogger saphorr, at 5:42 PM  

  • 1 - no
    2 - yes
    3 - yes
    4 - Mulcair
    5 - EKOS
    6 - over
    7 - no
    8 - BQ
    9 - NDP
    10 - no
    11 - no
    12 - no
    13 - over
    14 - over
    15 - 3
    16 - 1
    17 - same
    18 - yes
    19 - 27
    20 - Smilin' Jack Layton

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 10:33 AM  

  • Tie-breaker: Con 163, Lib 65, BQ 50, NDP 29, Ind 1

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 10:34 AM  

  • 1. No (she will keep Gary Lunn in office)
    2. No (Libs will win a seat in Edmonton)
    3. No
    4. Cauchon
    5. Ekos
    6. Under
    7. Yes
    8. Conservatives
    9. Liberal
    10. No
    11. No
    12. No
    13. Under
    14. Over
    15. 2
    16. 0, Andre Arthur will lose
    17. Same (gain some in Quebec City, lose some in Montreal)
    18. Yes
    19. 4
    20. Ignatieff

    The Liberals will win a minority government. Despite an early CPC lead, Ignatieff's personal numbers will improve. I suspect they have some serious dirt on the Tories (separate from the present "scandals", which nobody cares about), while Canada's real estate bubble is primed to pop. Jack Layton will campaign badly, and Green support will fall, further aiding Ignatieff.

    Con 104
    Liberal 129
    BQ 51
    NDP 24

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 12:45 PM  

  • 1. No.

    2. Yes

    3. No

    4. Thomas Mulcair

    5. Nanos

    6. Under 42%

    7. No

    8. The Tories

    9. NDP

    10. Yes

    11. No

    12. Yes

    13. Over 80%

    14. Over 60%

    15. 2

    16. 3

    17. 1 More

    18. Yes

    19. 25

    20. Iggy

    Seat total:

    CPC - 133
    LPC - 90
    BQ - 55
    NDP - 30

    By Blogger Chris, at 5:31 PM  

  • 1. Yes

    2. No – they’ll take 25 ridings (1 Independent will win, 1 LPC, 1 NDP)

    3. Yes, barely.

    4. Cauchon

    5. Harris-Decima

    6. Under

    7. Yes – 2 weeks before election day

    8. CPC

    9. LPC

    10. Yes

    11. Of course. Not.

    12. No. He’ll go open-collar denim-like a la Chretien in 93.

    13. 85%

    14. 64%

    15. One - Avalon

    16. Three (Guergis, Ford (AB), Arthur)

    17. Same number as now.

    18. Yes

    19. Twenty-five

    20. It’ll be a toss-up… Ignatieff will edge Harper out though… just barely.

    Tie-Breaker

    LPC – 110
    CPC – 109
    BQ – 52
    NDP – 33
    GPC - 1
    IND: 3

    By Blogger Canadian, at 11:08 AM  

  • 1 - Not even close, she'll finish third
    2 - Yes
    3 - Yes
    4 - Mulcair by a wider margin than 2008
    5 - Nanos
    6 - Over (which they've already done)
    7 - No
    8 - Marxist-Leninist
    9 - Liberals
    10 - No

    11 - No
    12 - No
    13 - Under
    14 - Under
    15 - 2
    16 - 0
    17 - Push (exact same)
    18 - Yes
    19 - Science has yet develop a way of counting something that big, but we're working on it
    20 - Conservatives

    ========

    CPC - 160
    Liberals - 62
    BQ - 49
    NDP - 37

    By Blogger Tony Jones!, at 11:16 AM  

  • 1. No
    2. Yes
    3. No
    4. Mulcair
    5. Ipsos
    6. 44%
    7. No
    8. Conservatives
    9. NDP
    10. Yes
    11. No
    12. No
    13. Under
    14. Over
    15. 3
    16. 0
    17. More
    18. No
    19. 22
    20. Ingatieff

    Bonus:
    159 Conservative
    70 Liberal
    51 Bloc
    38 NDP

    By Anonymous Terry_G, at 12:05 PM  

  • 1. No

    2. Yes

    3. Yes

    4. Mulcair

    5. Nanos

    6. Over

    7. No

    8. Conservatives

    9. NDP

    10. Yes

    11. No

    12. No

    13. Under

    14. Under

    15. Three

    16. One

    17. More

    18. Yes

    19. 24

    20. Jack Layton

    160 CPC
    65 LPC
    50 BQ
    33 NDP

    By Blogger hatrock, at 12:21 PM  

  • 1 - No, second place
    2 - No
    3 - Yes
    4 - Mulcair
    5 - Angus Reid
    6 - Over
    7 - No
    8 - Conservatives
    9 - NDP
    10 - No
    11 - No
    12 - No
    13 - Over
    14 - Under
    15 - 2
    16 - 1
    17 - Less
    18 - Yes
    19 - 5
    20 - Harper

    By Blogger Wheatsheaf, at 1:01 PM  

  • 1. no
    2. yes
    3. yes
    4. Cauchon
    5. Nanos
    6. over
    7. no
    8. CPC (only because you're judging, I think it will really be the Libs).
    9. Libs (again, looking at your audience but this I actually think will be the Dippers).
    10. no
    11. no
    12. no
    13. over
    14. over
    15. 3
    16. 1
    17. more
    18. yes
    19. 28
    20. Duceppe

    CPC 161
    Lib 58
    BQ 53
    NDP 35
    Grn 0
    Ind 1

    By Blogger Reid, at 2:44 PM  

  • 1) no
    2) no
    3) no
    4) Mulcair
    5) Nanos
    6) over
    7) no
    8) Conservatives
    9) Liberals
    10) no
    11) no
    12) no
    13) over
    14) over, because I'm an optimist
    15) none
    16) none
    17) more
    18) yes
    19) no
    20) Duceppe

    Cons-132
    Libs-89
    NDP-35
    Bloc-52
    Greens-0

    By Blogger A View From The Left, at 6:04 PM  

  • 1. no

    2. no

    3. no

    4. mulcair

    5. nanos

    6. under

    7. no

    8. ndp

    9. liberal

    10. yes

    11. yes

    12. yes

    13. under

    14. under

    15. 2

    16. 2

    17. more

    18. no

    19. 11

    20. ignatieff


    Tie-Breaker: Con 121 Lib 102 Bloc 57 NDP 26 Ind 2

    By Blogger Jeff Townsend, at 9:48 PM  

  • 1) Yeah, sure, but there will also be another.
    2) Nope. They will bleed a couple in Edmonton to the Liberals.
    3) Libs will take this one back after Fantino does or says something too moronic for the voters to miss.
    4) Mulcair. Sorry, Martin.
    5) Harris-Decima.
    6) under.
    7) yes.
    8) CPC
    9) NDP
    10) you betcha. This election is too important and so is a woman's right to choose.
    11) no way - Harper knows they're too ugly.
    12) Nope, he is too pure and wonderful to ever wear anything twice.
    13) over. The crowfootians are Harper's adopted zombie family.
    14) over, but not by more than 5%
    15) Fuck-all.
    16) nada
    17) Quite a few less, like between 10 and 20.
    18) Yep.
    19) 5,790,409 (all scripted)
    20) Gilles Duceppe.
    TB:

    GPC = 2
    BQ = 34
    CPC = 90
    NDP = 23
    Liberal = 159

    By Blogger Scott in Montreal, at 12:19 AM  

  • 1 - no
    2 - yes
    3 - yes
    4 - mulcair
    5 - nanos
    6 - under
    7 - no
    8 - greens
    9 - ndp
    10 - no
    11 - yes
    12 - no
    13 - over
    14 - over
    15 - 2
    16 - 1
    17 - less
    18 - yes
    19 - 11
    20 - Harper

    Tory's - 152
    Libs - 70
    NDP - 40
    Bloc - 45
    Ind - 1

    By Anonymous Zuuko, at 1:13 AM  

  • My first question is can we change these at a later date as campaigns are so unpredictable that what I would predict now may not be what I predict closer to E-Day.

    Anyways here are mine

    1. No - Similiar results to Central Nova in 2008

    2. Yes - The NDP are strongest amongst younger voters and those attending the U of A and the former tends to have a low voter turnout and the latter will be out of school

    3. Yes - Pretty much a 50/50 proposition so flip a coin on this one at least for now. I suspect it will be close either way.

    4. Yes - Martin Cauchon has enough appeal he should overtake Mulclair, although with the Liberals' atrocious numbers in Quebec, I am bit hesistant.

    5. Nanos - If you took on the last day, he also nailed the last election too. Considering that the day before Was Thanksgiving while there is no stat holiday prior to this election, I suspect most polls will go right up to May 1st

    6. Yes - If Ipsos could give them 43% just before the election, I am sure someone else will at some point

    7. Yes - I am a bit skeptical of this but whether they pull ahead of not, I suspect there will be at least one poll where they come within 5% of the Tories. After all even John Turner was able to pull ahead of Mulroney at one point in the 1988 election.

    8. Conservatives - They have the most money and they have the most to gain from running nasty ads. Usually it is the governing party, although not always who runs the most vicious ad. Besides how will this be decided as it is quite subjective.

    9. I am going to guess the NDP, but pretty subjective here anyways.

    10. No - The Tories have no reason to bring it up and it will just look desperate if the Liberals bring it up.

    11. No - I think Ignatieff is more likely to include someone is his shadow cabinet than Harper is his cabinet considering how much of a one man show it is.

    12. No - If it hasn't by this point, why would it.

    13. Over - Even in 2004 when the lost, they still got over 80%.

    14. Under - I will even make a bolder prediction, this will be the lowest turnout in Canadian history

    15, 1 - Although I think the odds are against them in both Avalon and St. John's-Mount Pearl, I think they have a 30-40% chance in each riding and so combined that means a greater than 50% chance of winning one of them although too early to tell which one.

    16. 0 - It is rare for Independents to win three times in a row in the case of Andre Arthur and none elsewhere that I could see winning. Helena Guergis will cut the Tory margins in her riding, but not win.

    17. More - Although tough tell, they have a floor of 39 seats and ceiling of 59 seats and considering the weakness of the other parties I think they will win 1-3 more seats, most likely from the Tories in Quebec City

    18. Yes - This has been the case in every election since 1988, seems unlikely to change now considering how few seats they will probably win in the West and Quebec and the fact Atlantic Canada is only 1/3 as many seats.

    19. 15 - Not knowing the format, tough to say, but he will mention it for sure at some point.

    20. Stephen Harper - He has won in the past three elections and with this being Ignatieff's first while facing the same candidates this makes the most sense.

    Prediction: 145 seats Tories, 76 seats Liberals, 52 Seats Bloc Quebcois and 35 seats NDP. this really an average, anything from 92-188 seats for the Tories and 39-130 seats for the Liberals and the remainder between the other two parties is my guess.

    By Blogger Miles Lunn, at 9:37 PM  

  • Great project CG,

    Terry_G is over by ten seats.

    Anyone keep tracking of mistakes so your averages are not skewed?

    How will you handle those posts that are outside the 308 seats or are beyond any realistic outcome?

    ie LPOC, NDP majority?

    By Blogger CanadianSense, at 11:13 AM  

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