Tuesday, April 05, 2011

Wisdom of the Crowds: Ads & Polls

At the start of the campaign, I asked 20 questions. I've already recapped some of your answers here and here.

Today, a look at what you expect from to see on the tube and in the polls:


Which polling company's publicly released final numbers will be closest to the actual results?

Survey says...Nanos 44%, Ekos 25%, Ipsos Reid 13%, Angus Reid 13%, Deicima 4%, Environics 2%. For my shot in the dark prediction, I'll got with one nobody picked and say Leger, who have been very good in recent elections.


Over/under on the highest level of support the Conservatives will hit in a national election poll - 42%

Thanks to the Sunday night Nanos numbers, the overs have it.


Will the Liberals ever lead in a national election poll?

One-in-four (25%) say they will. It wouldn't surprise me - even Dion came within 3 points on a Nanos poll last election.


Which party will run the most vicious attack ad?

Surprise, surprise, 73% of you picked the Conservatives. Still, I gave the NDP the win in this category last time. I'm going to go for the long-shot and say the Bloc take it this time. Duceppe hasn't held back in his criticism of Harper, so I don't see why his commercials would.


Which party will run the "best" ad?

The NDP (51%) and the Grits (31%) got the most votes. A few of you picked the Liberals saying Calgary Grit readers would stack the box in their favour. Well, keep in mind two NDP ads and a Tory ad sat on the podium last time.


Ad Content

One-in-three (33%) expect an abortion ad, with even fewer expecting to see Harper's sweater vest (29%) or a Tory Cabinet Minister (21%).

4 Comments:

  • Scroll down far enough, 3rd account under Brad Lavigne and you'll that this account is following a rather interesting account.

    http://twitter.com/#!/pmharper/following

    Surprised nobody has noticed this yet.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:24 AM  

  • Can you just tell us what account it is - some of us don't have Twitter.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 3:13 PM  

  • ...and some of us don't want to search through 12,000 listings.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:14 PM  

  • I tried the link but couldn't access it. I do have Twitter...

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 5:42 PM  

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