Quebec Turns Orange
I haven't reported on any individual polls as of yet this campaign, but this one, accurate or not, is going to be the only thing talked about tomorrow:
NDP 36%
BQ 31%
CPC 17%
Lib 13%
UPDATE: Ekos is in...and the Bloc has dropped to 24% in Quebec. People have been predicting the death of the Bloc for years, and sure enough, Gilles Duceppe finds a way to get his 40-50 seats every election. So let's not count him out quite yet - if there's a leader with the charisma and credibility to take on Layton, it's Gilles.
But...if this does hold...who would have ever predicted the NDP would be the party to knock off the Bloc?
Just when you think Canadian politics is as dull as it gets, it finds a way to surprise you.
Labels: Jacques Layton, Polls
posted by calgarygrit at
11:54 p.m.
40 Comments:
Interesting, but I'm not sure it will last or actually translate into that number in the vote.
Also two days ago Crop published a poll for 2 Quebec City ridings showing the NDP up only 5% from their previous result.
By
Anonymous, at 12:26 a.m.
Is it too early to make jokes about Quebec and political leaders with canes? Yes? Damn.
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Anonymous, at 12:41 a.m.
All I can say is wow. I put the Ekos numbers into the UBC election stock market predictor (assuming all declines in voter support for the other parties went to the NDP), and got 48 seats for the NDP.
We may get a coalition after all... with Jack as PM and Michael Ignatieff in something demeaning. Then again, Quebec voters can be rather fickle - just ask Dumont, Harper or Ignatieff - all of whom experienced short-lived surges in la belle province.
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hosertohoosier, at 12:55 a.m.
The Ekos poll is rather encouraging... If the liberals can gain just a bit and the Bloc fall just a bit the BQ could potentially become the third place party in Quebec. Now I really do expect the NDP to start cratering and that this will all end up being much ado about nothing. But it's fun to think of the possibilities in the meantime.
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Anonymous, at 1:01 a.m.
I keep hoping I'll wake up and this was all a nightmare...
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Hishighness, at 1:06 a.m.
I think Layton has the power to go a far distance in this election...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_kH6jS6zeA
By
Joseph Kerr, at 1:10 a.m.
I'm trying to decide if I like this or hate it.
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Gayle, at 1:14 a.m.
I'd like to see the look of joy on the random placeholder candidates the NDP is running in some of these ridings after seeing this poll... Although as the ADQ's brief period as official opposition illustrates, that doesn't always end well.
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hosertohoosier, at 1:20 a.m.
What happens to Harper if the coalition doesn't need the BLOC? This election is about to get very very interesting.
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Anonymous, at 1:30 a.m.
What happens to Harper if he gets a minority and the NDP are the official opposition? He has always said he would be prepared to have a coalition. Since he campaigned on it there is nothing to stop him from doing it.
Wishful thinking I know, but a gal can dream...
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Gayle, at 1:58 a.m.
If the Liberals and the NDP are not merged, it will be a decade long conservative rule in this country. It is math. If a whole bunch of dippers manage to get in it would be interesting to see how they handle the inevitable PQ govt and a possible referendum.
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Anonymous, at 3:08 a.m.
The NDP has always been the only party that could knock off the Bloc. The problem has always been the party has been too weak in Quebec to ever do so.
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Unknown, at 5:13 a.m.
"What happens to Harper if he gets a minority and the NDP are the official opposition?"
The way I see it, nothing would happen, after all the Black-mail Party was opposition before, so what is the differance if it were the Non-Democradic Party?
It is the Black-mail Party that wants to destroy Canada being part of the Coalition of the Damned that bothers most Canadins. If there is no Black-mail Party in the coalition then it would probably be more acceptable.
I think it would be a breath of fresh air having the Non Democradic Party as official opposition - at least they would NOT be Conservative back-benchers like the LIEberals - under DeYawn and Iffy, that is all they were.
So there is hope for coalition if the Black-mail party was out of the picture. Just my opinion on question asked - right or wrong.
Gayle, Question: What happens if the Non Democradic Party gets more seats than LIEberals? Would we have PM Jack instead of PM Iffy? Would the roles be reversed and LIEberals be subject to Jack?
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Clown Party, at 7:34 a.m.
...How did the Liberals get into FOURTH PLACE?
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Alexander Soley, at 8:40 a.m.
I wouldn't be too worried if I were you guys. Even if this holds, at best it will really only translate into a few seats - Gatineau, possibly Jeanne Le Ber, maybe the one in Abitibi, at best.
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Marc from soccer, at 9:12 a.m.
"What happens if the Non Democradic Party gets more seats than LIEberals? Would we have PM Jack instead of PM Iffy? Would the roles be reversed and LIEberals be subject to Jack?"
The answer to your question is in my post, and other than this response I am not going to answer it again.
If you want an adult discussion, maybe try behaving like an adult and ditch the name calling.
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Gayle, at 9:32 a.m.
Re: Anonymous - Many would argue that if the Liberals and NDP do merge, there would still be decade-long conservative rule in this country, just of a different label and colour.
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Anonymous, at 9:34 a.m.
The CROP poll is interesting because it was online and says it is not random therefore has no margin of error.
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Bailey, at 9:59 a.m.
"If you want an adult discussion, maybe try behaving like an adult and ditch the name calling."
You appear to not like the words"
Black-mail Party - The Bloq is black-mailing Canada by demanding Billions of dollars to get support. What would you call it? How many Billions are already promised to get support for the LIEberals and NDP?
LIEberal - they lied about GST and every promise in RED BOOK and Iffy lied in debate about Coalition.
The Non-Dermocradic Party - they hardly do anything democradic, but at least the NDP are consistant - unlike the flip-flooping Iggy.
The Cons - well they are just as bad for some of their broken promises - Income Trust comes to mind.
No party is perfect, and Gayle neither are you and I - unless you never see fault in yourself.
The reason the Calgary Grit is respected is that the author is not afraid to point out pro and cons of each party. Where praise id due, it is given. Where condemnation is due, it is given. That makes it a very balanced blog.
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Clown Party, at 10:01 a.m.
Sure, but calling parties names is childish.
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Gayle, at 10:19 a.m.
I'm trying to decide if I like this or hate it.
Nice one Gayle
By
Anonymous, at 10:23 a.m.
Some of the comments regarding this seem to be a bit off. The idea that the Conservatives are poised to benefit greatly from the Quebec shifts is somewhat flawed. The party looks to be consistently polling about five points lower in the province than their 2008 result.
There is clearly room here for Tories to hope that some strange splits will go their way but that does not mean it will happen. I certainly would not be eager to lose nearly a quarter of my vote in Quebec.
This also has the potential to seriously backfire on the main thrust of the Conservatives' campaign. A fair amount of the coalition attacks might highlight the NDP as a negative part of any, non-Conservative, post election outcome but the most effective aspect has centred on fears of Bloc involvement. Flanagan's comments have shown that, at least he thinks, the Bloc's existence is the real vote mover there. Likewise, Coyne makes similar points without necessarily framing it as a reason to support the Conservatives. Now will appeals to Canadians that they must vote Conservative, lest the Bloc gain power, really achieve the same kind of desired results?
I could definitely see the Conservatives losing some voters in the Rest Of Canada if the Bloc really implodes. Furthermore, I just cannot see much of an upside to the Conservatives in Quebec if the Bloc disappears. Now this is of course pretty hypothetical since the Bloc is still at least second but hold with me. Many of the Tory friendly Bloc voters, who were essential to forming the party, already switched in 2006. The remainder of the Bloc, having remained with the clearly leftwing Duceppe, seems to be composed of the kind of voters that, without the Bloc as an option, will drift towards the NDP and, to a lesser degree, the Liberals. If the Conservatives are now maxed out at fifteen to twenty percent in the province, then they can only lose seats if the rest of the vote coalesces around two parties instead of three.
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Robin, at 10:41 a.m.
Marc - with the NDP at 20-25%, they'd likely only get 3 or 4 seats.
With the NDP at 30-35%, that trickly would turn into a flood. There's no way you can get a third of the votes and not have the seats follow. Even if the Tories hold Quebec and the Libs hold the West Island, they'd have to pick up somewhere.
Like H2H said, a lot of placeholder candidates could be going to Ottawa.
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calgarygrit, at 10:59 a.m.
Ignatieff has already said no coalition. If you think a 60-80 seat NDP is going to support the Liberals without getting anyone at the Cabinet table, forget it.
If you think the Liberals are going to make Jack Layton PM, forget it. If they fall to third, they'll be too busy with a leadership race and rebuilding to try anything (as would the Bloc) - so Harper would be back to his de facto majority for a bit.
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calgarygrit, at 11:01 a.m.
Very interesting development!
Half the NDP candidates in Quebec are women, so they might help break the record set in 2008.
P.S. Gayle is right about the name-calling.
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Robert Vollman, at 11:10 a.m.
Originally the Bloc got their support across the spectrum, but since they've they've drifted to the far left. (In fact you could say the same thing of the Greens).
It's good for establishing a base, but as you can see if leaves their support vulnerable to the rally of a single party.
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Robert Vollman, at 11:14 a.m.
Dan,
The thing is I am not sure if Ignatieff would be in any position to say no to a formal coalition given that kind of result. Something like 120-130 Conservatives, 80-90 Liberals, 70-80 New Democrats, and 20-30 for the Bloc. If we end up in a situation where the Bloc is irrelevant because it would require any two of the other parties, and only two of the other parties, to pass legislation then what are his choices? He would be too weak to really make a case to go it alone. I cannot see the NDP deciding to prop up Harper in this hypothetical so it really puts the onus on the Liberals. They would then be left with two real options. Support the Conservatives or acquiesce to NDP demands for a coalition. Neither would be particularly appetizing but would he rather fight the next election with the Tories calling him a liar or the NDP campaigning against the, albeit informal, Conservative-Liberal coalition.
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Robin, at 12:01 p.m.
Re: calgarygrit - It's quote possible to approach one-third of the vote and not have many seats follow, particularly for the NDP and even moreso in Quebec.
Last election, the NDP got 26%, 22, 29% and 34% of the vote in SK, NB, NS and NFL respectively. Results: 0, 1, 2, 1, respectively, for a total of 4/42.
I would argue even 3-4 seats in PQ would be extremely fortunate at 20-25% for the New Dems. They have a tonne of ground to make up.
I think this election is very regional and even seat-specific in nature and the results may not reflect the national and even provincial polls, but that's just my two cents.
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Marc from soccer, at 12:06 p.m.
Indeed, in a scenario where NDP/Liberals had a majority of seats, I think it's inevitable we would see a coalition (supporters of both parties would strongly push for it). This could provide stable government for 4 years (as in the current coalition in the UK - only this coalition would have much better policies), at which point the parties would stand on their own merits, not on the Tories' fear-mongering about coalitions.
That might well end up in the long-term replacement of the Liberals by the NDP (much as Labour replaced the Liberals in the UK), but, frankly, that would be fine with this Liberal supporter. Based on Ekos' second-choice item, most current Grits are more left than centre, so not many tears would be shed if the Liberals were replaced by an even more progressive alternative as one of the parties of government.
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Anonymous, at 12:12 p.m.
Forum, polling for The Hill Times, has now become the third party to find the NDP leading in Quebec and the first to find them second, behind the Conservatives, nationally.
It is beginning to look like we have a real trend in Quebec.
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Robin, at 12:16 p.m.
...How did the Liberals get into FOURTH PLACE?
Trudeau. Chretien. Meech.
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Nuna D. Above, at 12:16 p.m.
The CPC war room must be overjoyed at this development. Does anyone think the Libs would be interested in a coalition with the NDp on a relatively equal basis? It would be the death of the Liberal party.
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Betty, at 1:42 p.m.
In a scenarion where the NDP gets 60+ seats, I think you would see the Tories seeks to bring them into a quasi-coalition. Both hate the Liberals, but the NDP more so. This would be an historic opportunity for both to destroy the Liberal party.
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Anonymous, at 2:41 p.m.
Something people should remember is the NDP is mainly siphoning off the soft-nationalist votes from the Bloc. The LPC and CPC may in fact both benefit from this.
With vote splitting between the BQ and NDP in Quebec, a lot of these Bloc ridings had the Libs or Conservatives running in 2nd place - they may just squeeze up the middle and win them now.
This is unknown territory, and we may not even be able to envision the final outcome until May 3rd.
I think worse for the Libs is if the NDP start eating into the Ontario vote. There vote-splitting can go the wrong way for them.
Or, the soft Conservative votes in ONT might go to the Libs if they see the Bloc is no longer a 'coalition' threat anymore, and are worried about health care issues or how the CPC & abortion seems to be on the radar again.
The demise of the Bloc is potentially the biggest development in Canadian politics since, well, the demise of the Progressive Conservatives in 1993.
No one can say this is a boring election campaign anymore.
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Tof KW, at 3:34 p.m.
"It's quite possible to approach one-third of the vote and not have many seats follow, particularly for the NDP and even moreso in Quebec."
Yes, except that the examples you gave involve a 3-way race in which one party has way more than a third of the vote. If the NDP is really ahead, then they will win a number of seats.
The assumption that NDP support is thinly spread out is not based on anything, except their results last election. One poll had the NDP at 40% in Montreal, and some riding polls have shown dramatic increases, while others have not.
Jack Layton is picking up left-leaning nationalists, just as Harper picked up right-leaning nationalists in 2006. This is a group of people that is not distributed evenly across Quebec.
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hosertohoosier, at 4:55 p.m.
I'm gonna go all in w/ a guess:
CPC: 135
NDP: 85
BQ: 45
LPC: 40
GRN: 1
IND: 2
As a Liberal that REALLY pains me to write - but that's what it's gonna be.
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Anonymous, at 5:36 p.m.
Canada should celebrate this if what's happening comes to pass.
Lefty separatists and Lefty federalists are sliding into bed together under an orange-yellow blanket.
The Bloc may not die outright, but it will be put on an iron lung after this election.
The Liberals, well, they will likely feel some pain from the Dipper surge. But they should rejoice that in their suffering, they brought lefties together on happy, neutral ground.
Dippers should have a provincial party set up right quick.
By
a change is gonna come, at 5:41 p.m.
Ipsos-Reid, just released at 5:30 tonight (nationally):
CPC: 43%
NDP: 24%
LPC: 21%
BQ: 6% (down 3%, or 1/3 of their support)
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