Monday, April 18, 2011

Scoreboard Watching

As we enter the stretch drive on the campaign trail, I figured I'd check in on the "20 questions" pool, to see if the campaign has unfolded as people expected it would.

Over/under on the highest level of support the Conservatives will hit in a national election poll - 42% (63% said over)

While Harper's numbers have been consistently below 40% of late, he did sneak over in one early Nanos poll, sparing me from having to rule on whether or not I would accept the COMPAS 45% as a legitimate poll.

Number of times Stephen Harper uses the word "coalition" in the (first) English language debate? (median: 13, mean: 120,653)

By my count, there was only one mention. A View from the Left is the closest at "0", but I'm willing to hand out points to anyone who said 5 or below.

Who will the instant-polls show as having won the first English language debate? (Ignatieff 39%, Layton 24%, Harper 22%, Duceppe 10%)

Despite Layton's tour-de-force, the instant polls all showed Harper as the winner.

Mulcair or Cauchon in Outremont? (73% predicted Mulcair)

A CROP poll from a few weeks back had Mulcair leading by 20 points...and this was before the NDP surge in Quebec. I wouldn't want to count out Martin Cauchon, but in the battle of leadership aspirants, Mulcair is certainly the odds-on favourite at this point.

Which party will run the most vicious attack ad? (73% said the Tories)

We've seen some blood in the water of late, but I feel like the harshest stuff is yet to come.

Will the words "abortion", "women's right to choose", or some variant, be used in a TV commercial this campaign? (33% said yes)

So far, the answer is a no. A "yes" here would likely give us a new contender on the previous question.

Will any Harper Cabinet Ministers appear in an english-language commercial this campaign? (21% said yes)

Unless Tony Clement was in the crowd on that Summit Series footage, still no Cabinet Ministers as of yet.

Will Harper's sweater vest make an appearance in a Conservative ad? (29% said yes)

Sweater vests are so 2008 - our fragile economic recovery calls for a suit and tie.


  • "Sweater vests are so 2008 - our fragile economic recovery calls for a suit and tie."

    You haven't noticed the Canada jacket Harper has been wearing everywhere? Yes other countries, we are so lame that our PM has to wear the name of his country on him, so we don't forget what country we are in.

    PS: I will note that Iggy has been rocking a powder blue sweater, though he looks better in red.

    Oh and I'm really glad I didn't bet money on this election pool thingy.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 10:14 p.m.  

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