Monday, April 18, 2011

Poll Soup: And here comes the NDP?


Tons of polls out today, with something for everyone.

If you're a Liberal, you're no doubt salivating at eating into the 8-point Tory lead in today's Decima and yesterday's Ekos polls. The NDP are surging in the latest from Leger and Angus Reid, with the latter showing them tied for second with the Liberals. The Tories, meanwhile, enjoy double-digit leads in Nanos and Forum polls.

Put it together and what have you got? Not a huge shift from last week, with the NDP up and the Tories down: (change since last week in brackets)

CPC 38.1% (-1.1)
Lib 27.0% (-0.3)
NDP 20.1% (+1.7)
BQ 8.3% (-0.4)
Green 5.5% (-0.9)

Translating this to seats, we see a similar shift, with the Dippers up and the Tories down:

Last week, the Conservative seat range was 141-168 seats, with a 46% chance at a majority. This week, their range is 138-162, with the majority odds down to 22%. For the Dippers, their pre-debate range of 22-35 seats has jumped to 28-42...and there are now 7 seats in Quebec they have at least a 5% chance of taking, with Outremont (89%), Gatineau (44%), and Hull-Aylmer (30%) the most promising.


As I've said before, I don't want to post seat-by-seat numbers, since models like this work far better at the aggregate level and can't possibly take into account all the riding-level dynamics. But I recognize the fun in this, so here are a few of the ridings to watch. Just please bear in mind that these projections are all based on regional shifts - just because the Tories are up in Ontario, it doesn't mean they're up in Ottawa, and a good (or bad) local campaign or candidate, can make a huge difference. And, of course, this is a reflection of current polls - this isn't a prediction of where support levels will be on E-Day.

With all those disclaimers in place (also: do not use seat projections and operate heavy machinery), I'll gladly take requests for others in the comments section:

-In PEI, the Liberals gace a 28% chance of taking back Egmont, but the Tories gace a 38% in Malpeque and 33% in Charlottetown.

-Justin Trudeau is at a 75% chance to hold in Papineau.

-Kingston and the Islands is the most vulnerable Liberal seat in Ontario (25% hold), with Sudbury, Mississauga-Erindale, Vaughan, Trinity-Spadina, Oak Ridges-Markham, and Kitchener-Waterloo all at between 20-30% chances of being picked up.

-Linda Duncan is at an 84% chance of holding Strathcona, with Edmonton East a 1-in-10 shot for the NDP and Edmonton Centre a 1-in-10 shot for the Liberals.

(click here for methodology)

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23 Comments:

  • This is going to be a tight election. And anybody who says differently at this point is lying.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:33 PM  

  • Everyone has Kingston tight based on last time & no incumbent...but its very very clear here this is going Lib with a much larger margin then last time.

    Lib Hsu absolutely dominating the lawn sign war(many lawns that haven't had a political sign before, and some formerly flying NDP colours) , while the NDP having a no name candidate vs popular city councilor last time and little interest in the Green this time (green's only press was writing a letter proposing Kingston, pop 120k, install street cars...seriously).

    By Anonymous Mr Rectifier, at 7:56 PM  

  • Who do you think has the best chance in Calgary Centre-north at beating the conservatives? I know its a long shot, but I'd would at least like to pick the second place guy(or gal!)

    By Blogger Martin, at 8:10 PM  

  • why are using an old ekos poll. todays poll has it 37 for the tories, 25 for the libs and 20 for the ndp. The spreaqd between the libs and tories has gone from 8 to 12.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:43 PM  

  • I wonder if the difference between the two spreads is within the margin of error.

    By Blogger sharonapple88, at 9:15 PM  

  • Anonymous 8:43,

    In fairness, today's EKOS poll just came out this evening.

    By Blogger Carl, at 9:57 PM  

  • I wonder if NDP gains will translate to seats. They appear to be up nationally, but most of those gains are in Quebec, where they don't have a concentrated bloc of support (though they said that about Harper in 2006 too). They may actually be down in the ROC, relative to 2008 levels.

    Some napkin math: if the NDP is at 24% in Quebec and 19% nationally, it suggests they are at about 17.3% in the ROC. In 2008 they won about 17.5% nationally, but 19.3% in the ROC.

    NB: my underlying assumption is that Quebec = 25% of the voting public in Canada.

    By Anonymous hosertohoosier, at 10:04 PM  

  • Also, I note that a majority is trading at 50% on intrade*. That looks like a good stock to short...

    http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=706376

    *Although my sense is that futures markets like this don't fit the efficient market hypothesis. The number of traders is too low, and there is no regulation of insider trading.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 10:31 PM  

  • There doesn't seem to be a lot of trading going on at Intrade. It's really a shame we don't have the UBC election stock market going again - I feel like that one did a good job as a political market last campaign.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:03 PM  

  • Martin - the Liberals should have the best shot in Centre North. They've been organized for a long time there (it looked like it would be a by election) and are spending cash. Whereas the NDP only nominated a candidate after the writ.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:05 PM  

  • The NDP surge is interesting, since everyone expected them to be squeezed and to lose seats this election. We'll have to see if it holds.

    And like you said, all these gains in Quebec might not do the Dippers a lot of good if they lose ground in BC or Ontario.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 11:09 PM  

  • Voter commitment might be another issue making the NDP surge problematic. For instance, if you take the Leger poll and just look at voters who considered their choice to be final (58% of the total), the NDP does poorly.

    CPC: 44.1% (+6.1%)
    LPC: 26.7% (+0.7%)
    NDP: 15.4% (-7%)
    BQ: 12.2% (+4.2%)
    GP: 1.7% (-3.3%)

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 1:43 AM  

  • Will the new TV network Sun News have an impact on the outcome?

    By Blogger Katechon, at 2:14 AM  

  • Somebody ask the Liberal War Room what they predicted the Conservatives would get, as of the day they decided to take down the House.

    They are seriously underperforming their expectations, as they have throughout the campaign.

    And that was before they left their friends in the media high and dry with untruths in a press release about F-35 engines, and before they left their friends in the media high and dry with untruths about Health Care.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:44 AM  

  • Hey CG, heres your first campaign abortion reference. Just came up on the CBC Reality Check last night: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/realitycheck/2011/04/ndp-targets-ignatieff-on-abortion-issue.html

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:20 AM  

  • With no Downes or Abrams running, the Libs are fine in Kingston.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:37 AM  

  • I don't like that Intrade charges you 5 bucks a month to trade. I understand they need to recoup some costs but monthly fees are skethcy. Otherwise, it'd be fun to try.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:38 AM  

  • $5 a month for a lot of fun doesn't sound too sketchy to this reporter.

    By Anonymous Jacques Beau Verte, at 12:17 PM  

  • It's not the cost, but the mechanism. I don't doubt that InTrade is legit, but pre-authorized monthly charges mean putting yoru credit card on file, and ending the charges and removing your card info can be a pain in the ass to remove in some cases. Paying per trade would have less potential for credit card chicanery.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:23 PM  

  • In 2008 every single Pollster underpolled the CPC?

    Ground game is key. GOTV.

    CPC-NDP have best ground game. According to Liberals getting their supporters to show up and a cast a ballot is the most difficult.

    If Lib pick up 1% in AB it won't save the seats in Ontario.

    Will new immigrants show up in large enough numbers in key ridings to give our PM his majority?

    By Blogger CanadianSense, at 2:45 PM  

  • ...and in 2004 and 2006 every single pollster underpolled the Liberals and overpolled the Conservatives. So what's your point?

    By Blogger DL, at 10:37 PM  

  • Any predictions for Oakville?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:08 PM  

  • @Calgary Grit, Heather Macintosh will come in second in Calgary-Centre North.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:47 PM  

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