Monday, November 29, 2010

It's By Election Night in Canada

The polls close at 9:30 in Vaughan and 8:30 in Manitoba. I'll be providing updates, snark, and Julian Fantino sightings throughout the evening but, if you're really keen to follow along, elections.ca will be posting the results here.


9:02 pm - Bonus by election results from the provincial by election in Quebec! With 39 of 159 polls reporting, the Liberals and PQ are neck and neck. The Liberals took this seat by 32 percentage points last election but with Jean Charest in trouble, many are expecting the PQ to steal. Chantal Hebert looks at the possible fallout here.


10:26 pm - Time for some results! In Quebec, the PQ cling to a 157 vote lead with 10 polls to go. Should be as exciting as a Grey Cup finish.

As expected, Vaughan is a close one. Fantino leads by 5% with a quarter of the polls reporting.

The surprise of the night could be Winnipeg North, where Liberal Kevin Lamoureux is within 100 votes with half the polls reporting. A win there would certainly take the sting out of losing Vaughan.

Oh, and the Pirate Party is up on the Greens by 1 vote in Winnipeg. In fairness, Jim Flaherty did warn us they were on the move.


10:54 pm - The PQ wins by 196 votes. A tough night for Jean Charest.

It's getting to the point where we can likely call Vaughan for Fantino. That 5-point lead shows no signs of narrowing, with 2/3 of the polls reporting. (though the Genco HQ has the lead at only 400 votes)

Dauphin, we could call about a month ago.

So that leaves Winnipeg North, where Kevin Lamoureux has taken a 235 vote lead with 33 polls left to report. Which means, as usual, it will be up to Western Canada to bail out the Liberal Party after Toronto abandons them.


11:26 pm - Well, well, well. The Liberal lead in Winnipeg North (1.4%) is now larger than the Tory lead in Vaughan (1.2%).


11:35 pm - Coming up on midnight and two of the by elections are still too close to call. Isn't this more fun than scan tran ballots?


12:08 am - Last update for the night. Fantino up by 500 votes with 24 polls to go. He'll likely hang on, but it's certainly not a sure thing.

In Winnipeg North, I think we can chalk it up for Lamoureux, who now leads 47% to 41%. Which means the Liberal vote share will have increased more than 5-fold since the last election. Which means we should expect a Liberal sweep across Western Canada next election, eh?

35 Comments:

  • at 10:33, lamoureux leads in winnipeg north

    -icky-

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:34 PM  

  • Ignatieff losing a Liberal stronghold in Vaughn.
    An opposition party losing a "safe" by-election.
    That is rare in Canadian History.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:40 PM  

  • "Which means, as usual, it will be up to Western Canada to bail out the Liberal Party after Toronto abandons them."

    Heh.

    "An opposition party losing a "safe" by-election."

    You know, if Vaughn had been a safe by-election, I might agree with you. Then again, maybe you are right. It could be all over. We are doomed!!!!

    By Blogger Gayle, at 10:59 PM  

  • Vaughn lead for the Tories is down to 3, Libs up by 2 in Winnipeg.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:02 PM  

  • Winnipeg free press is calling Winnipeg North for Kevin Lamoureux! Huge Liberal upset in Winnipeg.

    By Blogger Scott, at 11:03 PM  

  • Well to be fair, I don't think you can credit an LPC win in Winnipeg as a win for Ignatieff any more than the win for Fantino is a win for Harper. They are two candidates with huge name recognition.

    By Blogger Gayle, at 11:11 PM  

  • Difference in Vaughn seems to have settled in at about 3%. Faustino seems likely to run out the clock. 74 polls left and about 916 votes difference.

    Fat Lady ain't singing but she's starting to warm up.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:16 PM  

  • I agree...Lamoureux won as Lamoureux and Fantino won as Fantino. The popularity of the parties was definitely skewed in these byelections.

    Free press story:

    http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/Lamoureux-wins-upset-victory-for-Liberals-in-Winnipeg-North-111017029.html

    By Blogger Scott, at 11:17 PM  

  • Things are tightening up in Vaughan 48.5% to 47.2%

    By Blogger Scott, at 11:20 PM  

  • So assuming results stay as is do we basically end up with a zero momentum event? Story being that the Libs and Tories each pick up a seat outside of geographic strongholds and the Dippers being the only losers (with the star candidate astrix)?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:20 PM  

  • Don't know that Lamoureux has it yet. This one is a nail biter.

    By Blogger Gayle, at 11:20 PM  

  • Maybe I spoke too soon. Big tightening up in Vaughn

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:21 PM  

  • ...and in Winnipeg.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:22 PM  

  • I wonder if we'll end up with recounts in both?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:25 PM  

  • Wow, just over a 1% lead in both contested ridings. Political drama like this is intriguing, no matter what political stripe. :D

    By Anonymous Michael Harkov, at 11:28 PM  

  • Check the Winnipeg Free Press site...they have more up-to-date results than the elections canada site. Lamoureux has been declared the winner.

    By Blogger Scott, at 11:39 PM  

  • 11:26 pm - Well, well, well. The Liberal lead in Winnipeg North (1.4%) is now larger than the Tory lead in Vaughan (1.2%).

    Conservative Julian Fantino 15,793 48.5
    Liberal Tony Genco 15,349 47.1



    NDP-New Democratic Party Kevin Chief 5,522 43.2
    Liberal Kevin Lamoureux 5,666 44.3

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:43 PM  

  • Well, it looks like the Liberals lead in Winnipeg North is insurmountable now. Nicely played, guys. :D

    By Anonymous Michael Harkov, at 11:48 PM  

  • 11% seperation in Vaughn

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:50 PM  

  • "Faustino seems likely to run out the clock"

    Bud Bundy's running?

    By Anonymous Brendan Kane, at 11:50 PM  

  • 1.1 I mean

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:50 PM  

  • 474 Vote Difference, 24 polls left... difficult gap to overcome at this point.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:56 PM  

  • Yep. I can just see that sweep of Alberta only a few months away... (just kidding...).

    Congrats to Lamoreux in Winnipeg. You did something right. I didn't see that one coming...

    By Anonymous daveberta, at 12:26 AM  

  • Losing Vaughn hurts us more than winning Winnipeg North helps. Now we know we're vulnerable and beatable in our last stronghold.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:30 AM  

  • Wow Anon. You are right. I totally believe you are a liberal and now you have totally scared me.

    How will I sleep?

    By Blogger Gayle, at 12:32 AM  

  • Gayle, believe I am a Liberal or not, scared or not, wether you sleep well or not - the truth is what it is - the Tories have moved past the castle gate and are on the ramparts in Southern Ontario.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:45 AM  

  • And why would you ever think I thought you'd be scared, Gayle; after waht you've said in the past about not identifing as a Liberal, why would that impression thus even be there otherwise?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:50 AM  

  • Losing Vaughn does not hurt more then Winning Winnipeg, you're just Concern Trolling. I mean if you're gonna try and spin it as being vulnerable in a stronghold then by logical extension winning Winnipeg we're competitive elsewhere right?... So it all balances out. Really it means neither. All it means is that each party's Star Candidate won their riding. Nothing more nothing less.

    Plus, it's just a bye-election. Outside of feeding some national narrative they don't mean much and the Liberals picking up a seat mutes any Tory narrative (and equally so on the otherside from Vaughn). Tommorow is as was yesterday.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:05 AM  

  • Concern trolling, eh? Well if you mustsay so, Gayle.

    But before I take off for the night, remember this - elections (especially majorites) are won in Southern Ontario, hardly Manitoba. If you still think that after the recent municipal election in Toronto and the Liberals losing a previously safe Vaughn seat tonight still means that there is still no concern for Liberals, then you're dreaming.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:33 AM  

  • Yes, Concern Trolling... and don't call me Gayle.

    Elections are won in general elections (not bye-elections) fielding a standard slate of candidates (No one can have star candidates in every riding). If you think winning one seat under those circumstances equals doooooooooooom then you're the one who's dreaming.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:40 AM  

  • The problem with Liberals in Vaughn is pretty much the same as they have in any suburban Ontario "caucasian" majority riding. The only difference here was that the Cons had an Italian candidate with enormous name recognition running against a weak unkown Liberal in a riding with a huge italian-canadian pop, and everyone would just forget the relatively recent Libranos slur. Also, the ones that do vote for the Liberals know very well that the official multicultuarism policy so hated by the reformcons(now privately) was especially concieved by the Trudeau Liberals for allophones in Ontario and Quebec; at that time majority of whom were Italians and Greeks. There were very few visible minorities in Canada as colour blind immigration had just been introduced, though most people today associate multiculturalism with visible minorities. Many older Italians voting for Fantino or generally oposing any progressive idea today conveniently forget who gave them the freedoms that helped them being successful in Canada and still keep their Italian identity.

    By Anonymous Anthony, at 4:46 AM  

  • You're right, Anthony. To not vote Liberal makes them traitors! After all, Trudeau did a favour for their parents and grandparents, and now it's time for those second- and third-generation Canadians to pay up.

    All those allophones owe it to the Liberals to continue voting for them forever, regardless of whether they agree with their policies. :P

    By Anonymous The Invisible Hand, at 6:40 AM  

  • Older Italians are not bound to vote for any party - no one is obliged to vote for anyone.

    By Anonymous Jacques Beau Verte, at 11:26 AM  

  • Actually, Anthony is right. The Italian vote still massively went for the Liberals. The ones that do support Fantino, do so because of him and not because he is with Harper or the conservatives. Fantino could've run in any riding in Ontario and won. However, there are many older Italians that have a problem with progressivism and the rights of certain minorities for religious or cultural reasons.

    There is no hope for conservatives of making any inroads beyond Fantino's narrow win. Vaughn is one of the youngest ridings in the country and there was a massive Liberal sit out....as we've seen in many recent byelections. The turnout was heavily tilted towards the older generation. Yet there was an element of surprise there and it was quite evident in the reaction of the local media as no one expected it to be that close. Fantino was expected to win by a landslide, but the race was tight until the last few polls came in. Also, Vaughn is increasingly becoming more diverse like rest of the 905 region with older residents moving further north and relatively recent immigrants moving in from Toronto. Its undergoing the same demographic changes that happened in the neighbouring Peel region, which used to go massively for the PC's before the 90's but is now by and large Liberal territory.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:46 AM  

  • The Italian vote still massively went for the Liberals.
    ...
    The turnout was heavily tilted towards the older generation.


    Do you have a source for this?

    By Anonymous The Invisible Hand, at 3:22 AM  

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