Fun with Numbers: Wasted Votes

During all the hullabaloo over Stephen Harper's 20 hours in paradise last week, I read one comment somewhere about how Harper needs to win the popular vote by at least 3 or 4% to actually get the most seats, due to the wasted votes coming out of those uber-majorities in Alberta. So, as a follow up to my earlier post on competitiveness, here are some numbers to munch on:

1. At first glance, it does appear the Conservatives have been a lot less efficient with their vote. If we say every vote over a 1-vote margin of victory is wasted, and every vote in a losing riding is wasted, the Tories "wasted" 3.5 million votes last election, compared to 2.6 million for the Liberals and 2.1 million for the NDP.

Of course, they also had a lot more votes to waste. As a percentage of their total vote, the picture looks a lot different - 68% of the Conservative vote, 73% of the Liberal vote, and 82% of the NDP vote was wasted (although some smart asses would argue 100% of the NDP vote is wasted...).


2. That said, the Liberal vote was more efficient than the Tory vote in both 2006 and 2004 - 69% of the CPC vote was wasted in both elections, compared to 67% and 64% of the Liberal vote.


3. There is some truth to the "Alberta super majority" argument. The Conservatives are wasting 23,000 votes a riding there, on average. Comparatively, the worst Liberal province is Ontario, with about 11,000 votes per riding being wasted. But the Tories are actually winning seats in Alberta which is, ya know, kind of the point of elections. So even if 77% of their vote in Alberta is wasted, that's still better for them than in Quebec (83%) and, as much as I hate to say it, 100% of the Liberal vote is being wasted in Alberta.

Add it all up, and Alberta drags down the Conservative efficiency percentage by 1.7%, and it drags down the Liberal efficiency percentage 1.2% - hardly a stunning difference.


4. Now, those are quite a few numbers...full marks if you're still reading at this point. So here's the money shot in all this. If we close the gap between the two parties, and set up a 32-32 tie, the seat total winds up tied. Well, actually, the Tories are up 111 to 109 seats but the Liberals are within striking distance in a lot more seats so, in the end, it would all depend on where the votes shift, how the Bloc and NDP do, yada yada yada. But the take home message is that a tie probably is a tie because, all things considered, both parties are getting a similar bang for their vote.

In Fairness

I've given Stevie a bit of a hard time on these Senate appointments. But this Liberal line of attack rings fairly hollow:

"He is unequalled in Canadian history as the only prime minister to have made 27 Senate appointments in a single year and he beat (Conservative prime minister) Robert Borden who made 26 (in 1917)"

Harper has done exactly the same thing as every single Prime Minister that preceded him: He has filled Senate positions when they opened up. Yeah, yeah, he dithered about it at first, leading to a big total in 2009, but "Patronage King" is a bit rich, given the number of appointments Liberals have made over the years.

That said, to the Conservatives snickering about how the Liberals were no better, Paul Martin did appoint 4 Tories and 1 Dipper to the Senate.

In a shockingly non-partisan move

Gary Doer to be named Canada's new US Ambassador. Good choice.

Doer is one of only a handful of Premiers to leave at the top of their game in recent years. He's certainly been one of the most underrated politicians in this country over the last decade.

For those counting, this will leave Gordon Campbell as Canada's longest serving Premier.

The Toughest Job In Sports

Harper has appointed John Williamson, a former newspaper editorialist and former
lobbyist, as his new director of communications.

The over under on how long Williamson lasts is 8 months.

Even Stephen

The Globe's front-page headline of "HARPER GETS EVEN" was somewhat more charitable than what I would have run with. But, then again, "HARPER GOES AGAINST EVERYTHING HE'S EVER SAID IN 'UNDEMOCRATIC' AND HYPOCRITICAL MOVE" might not have fit above the fold. So, fair enough.

Still, I look forward to future headlines such as "HARPER GETS EVEN: Sets up sponsorship program to funnel cash to Tory friendly ad firms" and "HARPER GETS EVEN: Will raise GST by 2 points" in the near future...

Same Old, Same Old

"As everyone in this room knows, it has become a right of passage for aspiring leaders and prime ministers to promise Senate reform - on their way to the top - but once they are elected, Senate reform quickly falls to the bottom of the Government's agenda. Nothing ever gets done."
-Stephen Harper, Speech on Senate Reform before Senate Committee, September 7, 2006


The recipe for Senate appointments rarely changes, does it?

-Round up some party cronies

-Make sure at least two thirds are men

-Add an athlete (preferably a hockey player) to deflect attention away from the patronage

-Make the announcement at a time when no one's really paying attention


Yes, the Liberals used the same playbook for years. It's just, you know, they were always fairly upfront about it.

Entitled to their Entitlements: 2009 Senate Edition

Then: Tories pledge Senate reform, fixed election dates
Calling Canada's appointed Senate a relic of the 19th century, Harper said a Senate chair should be occupied by someone with a democratic mandate.

Now: Harper to appoint close Tory backers to Senate
Campaign chair Doug Finley and long-time communications assistant Carolyn Stewart-Olsen to go to Red Chamber in coming days

"The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives and the dreams shall never die."

Where are they now?

Via Full Pundit:

These, then, are the people with whom Dumont has thrown in his lot. And he might be having second thoughts after seeing what they've done to him in a promotional video for his show, Dumont 360 (snipurl.com/ qu9lj).

For 10 seconds, it shows Dumont in slow motion pointing, posing, jogging (!) and finally waving his arms. He might be the only one who can watch the video without laughing and saying, "This guy almost became premier of Quebec?"

Let's Make a Deal?

LAYTON MEETS WITH PM IN ADVANCE OF FALL SESSION

Aug 25, 2009

OTTAWA – New Democrat Leader Jack Layton will meet with Prime Minister Stephen Harper in Langevin Block to discuss the fall session of Parliament.

Layton plans to speak to reporters immediately following the meeting.

There's a lot of speculation there could be a Conservative-NDP coalition deal in the works. Jeff has a good run-down on why this might make sense. I suggested as much back in June too.

On the flip side, maybe our politicians are actually taking the minority government reality seriously and are, you know, talking to each other. As they should.

UPDATE: Sounds like it was just a friendly chat. Nothing wrong with that - that's probably something the party leaders should do more often.

A Good 20 Hours for Ignatieff

A Sunday night 11-point deficit turns into a statistical tie by Monday afternoon. At this rate, he'll be approaching Diefenbaker '58 numbers by mid-week!

OTTAWA_ A new poll suggests the Conservatives and Liberals remain locked in a dead heat amid rumblings of a possible fall election.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the parties in a statistical tie, with 32 per cent support for the Liberals and 31 per cent for the Tories.

The NDP were at 16 per cent, the Greens at 11, and the Bloc Quebecois at nine.

The numbers have barely budged throughout the summer, a period in which voters are typically disengaged.

Some Liberals have been pushing for an autumn election while the Tories have been trashing the idea, saying it would hurt the economic recovery.

The survey of just over 2,000 respondents was conducted Aug. 13-23 and is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points 19 times in 20.

Shockingly, the Iqaluit typo hasn't proven to be a game changer for the Liberals

Ipsos shows the biggest Tory lead since the coalition days:

CPC 39%
Lib 28%
NDP 14%
Green 10%
BQ 7%

It bears noting that every other poll published over the past month has had the parties neck-and-neck.

World Wide Web War

Via Kinsella, comes today's Star article declaring "Mission Accomplished" for the mainstream media in their war with the rogue blog rebels:

We are witnessing the triumph of the allegedly extinction-bound MSM over their cyberspace detractors. The economic reality is that the 224-year old Times of London boasts vastly more "brand-name awareness," as marketers say, than the best-written, most imaginatively designed blog in the world. So do The Lancet, Paris Match and National Public Radio.

And that's separate from the newspapers' and TV news channels' vaunted advantage in newsgathering, about which we so often hear from those making the case for "saving" our endangered traditional news media. The MSM win because of their continued, far larger financial resources, ubiquity of distribution, and decades-long familiarity and trust with audiences.

So if it ever was a war – and some of the early bloggers called it that– the MSM have won it.

Well, maybe. But I don't think this is really a "win" and "lose" situation.

Olive's theory is that a lot of bloggers have joined the MSM, thereby admitting defeat. But, then, the Toronto Star has 30 blogs on their website, so the MSM has certainly joined the blogosphere in full force. Is that admitting defeat?

This really isn't a war by any means - blogs, MSM, and the MSM who blog can all benefit each other. Blogs drive traffic to news stories and news stories provide stupid articles for bloggers to make fun of content for bloggers to post about. So I for one think the intertwining of the two sides over the past year or two is a welcome trend.

St. Paul's vote a national battlefront?

That was the Star headline this morning. Since they included a question mark at the end, I'll answer them: no.

Putting aside that most of the "senior anonymous insiders" quoted in the story are simply trying to manage expectations, let's assume for a second the Tories do win St. Paul's. They won't, but we did just see a 20 point margin of victory safe seat switch hands in a by election a few months ago, so it's not ridiculous to speculate about this.

What is ridiculous is to assume this is some sort of Harper versus Ignatieff litmus test, that will impact when the next federal election happens. By elections, by their very nature, are pretty awful indicators of public opinion - trying to extrapolate out the results of a provincial by election to the federal political scene is about as useful as this.

Here's the federal Liberal vote share over the last 40 years, plotted against the provincial Liberal vote share in the election that preceded it:



For the more numerically inclined among you, there's a -0.583 correlation between the two variables - in normal speak, that means when the provincial Liberals do well, the federal Liberals don't. And, even though I used 40 years of data, it's been that way since the dawn of time (or, at least, the dawn of confederation).

If you prefer, we can use the change in provincial vote to predict the change in federal vote...at least that should control some of the secondary factors, right?



Well, once again, we get a negative correlation (-0.259).

So even if by some miracle the PCs do win St. Paul's, it won't tell you a thing about the upcoming federal election. If it did, you'd have to conclude that after the John Tory by election fiasco, Michael Ignatieff is poised paint rural Ontario red this fall.

This Time We Mean It?

Well, at least according to "un proche collaborateur de M. Ignatieff, qui a requis l'anonymat", "une autre source libérale", and "un stratège libéral".

Les libéraux veulent provoquer des élections

(Ottawa) Les libéraux de Michael Ignatieff n'ont plus qu'une chose en tête à l'approche de la rentrée parlementaire: renverser le gouvernement conservateur. À moins d'un revirement majeur, les libéraux profiteront de la journée de l'opposition qui leur sera accordée fin septembre pour déposer une motion de censure envers le gouvernement Harper afin de provoquer des élections à l'automne.

Si les libéraux obtiennent l'appui du Bloc québécois et du NPD, ce qui semble acquis à en juger par les déclarations du chef bloquiste, Gilles Duceppe, et du leader du NPD, Jack Layton, des élections auraient lieu le lundi 9 novembre. Il s'agirait du quatrième scrutin en cinq ans et du deuxième en douze mois.

For equally credible speculation, there's always this.

Unwiped Bums Gaute

PMO Iqaluit bumble draws smiles, frowns

OTTAWA — A bumble by the Prime Minister's Office has residents of Nunavut alternately chuckling and cringing.

A news release sent out Monday outlined Prime Minister Stephen Harper's itinerary as he began a five-day Arctic tour.

The release repeatedly spelled the capital of Nunavut as Iqualuit - rather than Iqaluit, which means "many fish" in the Inuktitut language.

The extra "u" makes a world of difference.

"It means people with unwiped bums," said Sandra Inutiq of the office of the Languages Commissioner of Nunavut.

"It's not exactly a nice term."

Better Know a Riding - Saanich Gulf Islands

Welcome to part 3 of my 308 part series, Better Know A Riding. Today, Saanich-Gulf Islands. The fighting Islands!

This Vancouver Island riding borders the University of Victoria, famous not just for its large rabbit population, but also its ability to produce Harper Cabinet Ministers - alumni include Stockwell Day, Gary Lunn, and Rona Ambrose (she is still in Cabinet, right?).

The riding is also home to Cadboro Bay, home of the mythical "Cadborosaurus" sea monster (well, according to wikipedia anyways) - so I suppose some residents will believe electing a Green MP is possible.


2008 RESULTS
Gary Lunn (CPC) 43%
Briony Penn (Lib) 39%
Andrew Lewis (Green) 11%
Julian West (NDP) 6%


THE CANDIDATES

Elizabeth May

May got her first taste of politics in 1980, when she ran as part of an 11-candidate slate for "The Small Party" (if the Dippers are still thinking name change...), with May finishing fourth in a four person race with 272 votes.

Her second go around in politics would be (slightly) more successful, losing to Glen Pearson in a 2006 London by election, and to Peter MacKay in Central Nova last election. Following this, May boldly changed tactics, breaking from Green Party tradition and trying to actually win a seat in the next election.


Gary Lunn

Gary Lunn (pictured above with colleague John Baird), was first elected as an MP in 1997, and subsequently has sat in parliament for the Reform Party, Democratic Representative Caucus, Canadian Alliance, and Conservative Party.

He served as Minister of Natural Resources in the Harper government, fired Linda Keen, and was subsequently "promoted" to Secretary of State for Sports. In Natural Resources, Lunn had to decide whether or not to shut down nuclear power plants. In his new job, he has had to make equally important decisions such as "should Canadian athletes be forced to wear seal skins?".

As an MP, Gary distributes the "Lunn Report", something he calls "an invaluable tool for communicating with [his] constituents" - the most recent invaluable edition is from July 2008. In it, Lunn says "As for elections, I would prefer to govern until the fixed election date in October 2009".


The Liberals

The Liberal nomination meeting has been called for September 12th, with 2 candidates vying for what has suddenly become a much less coveted prize:




Renée Hetherington PhD - Research scientist, author and businesswoman

Kit (Christopher) Spence - Entrepreneur and international democratic development expert


The NDP

You may recall the last NDP candidate dropped out after naked-gate, around the same time two other BC NDP candidates were replaced because of drug-related incidents. So, quite understably, the NDP are taking their time nominating a candidate this time around.

My advice to their nominating committee would be to, at the very least, do a quick google search of their candidates before green lighting them.


What Next?

The word on the street is that May will formally declare on September 8th, and will hit the ground running with 100 volunteers on the 9th. She's also apparently shopping for a house in the area.


Can May Win?

Well, it's a better choice than Central Nova. But, then again, what riding isn't?

My running of the numbers pegged Saanich as the second best choice for May and, given that she seems to prefer losing to running against Conservatives than Liberals, it's a logical choice for her.

Greg Morrow has also run some numbers and he begs to differ. But part of his reasoning is the relatively weak ground game the Greens have in Saanich. While I agree 100% that May will win or lose it on the ground, the fact that the Guelph Greens had such a strong ground game in past elections might mean they're already punching well above their weight there. If the Greens have been doing well in Saanich without much of an organization, there's certainly some pottential for growth, since one presumes the Greens will shower the riding with pamphlets (on recyclable paper!) and that Green Party members from across BC will drive down in the hybrids to help May out.

So I'm going to go against the general blog/media spin and say this was actually a fairly solid choice for May. If I were her, I would begin campaigning immediately and spend every day tricycling thru the riding until the writ drops. I know May has said she will stay in the riding for the entire campaign, but it will still be important for her to maintain a national profile - so time should be made for national media, and a few trips to Ontario are a must. And heck, maybe she can even make the time to stop by Central Nova to bug Peter MacKay, just for old time's sake.


Previously Known: Central Nova, Papineau

Forever New

NDP Name Change Debate Fizzles

"I Didn't Know Truth Had A Gender"

In case you missed it earlier this week, the Globe ran a story with the rather provocative headline: Can a busy female politician give reliable evidence? A judge says no. Here's what the Jane Taber article had to say:

Lisa MacLeod is a young female politician who commutes to her job at Queen's Park from Ottawa and leaves her husband, Joe, and four-year-old daughter, Victoria, at home. Mr. Justice Douglas Cunningham of Ontario Superior Court said this is a big distraction for the 34-year-old woman and as a result he felt he could not accept her evidence as corroboration of the Crown's key witness in the recent high-profile, influence-peddling trial of Ottawa Mayor Larry O'Brien.

Judge Cunningham is 69; he was appointed to the bench in 1991.

His comments, delivered last week in his ruling dismissing the charges against Mr. O'Brien, are now drawing criticism from political strategists and activists who are shaking their heads, wondering when women will be treated as equals in politics.

Taber goes on to quote a plethora of outraged individuals, including Lisa MacLeod who laments "I didn't know truth had a gender". It's not hard to get worked up over this shocking incident. In fact, I was left pretty aghast after reading this article the first time.

The problem is, this shocking incident didn't really happen.

As was pointed out to me in an e-mail from a frequent reader, this sensationalist story falls apart as soon as you bother to read the actual ruling. Click on the link and read items 61 to 64 on page 14. The quote raising the fuss is simply a recap of the defence's case and is not given as the judge's reason for dismissing her testimony.

If you don't feel like reading the ruling, James Bowie has a fantastic post up where he neatly summarizes the case:

In her own words, Ms. MacLeod says she didn't know if it was Kilrea who initiated discussions. She said that "somebody" was talking to Kilrea about "an appointment," but she can't say who. She is unable to testify as to exactly what words were used. Asked if she didn't know about Kilrea working on an appointment himself, or whether the discussion had taken place earlier, she herself admits she doesn't know.

That is the salient point here - the witness, by her own admission, does not know the answer to the question. Asked "and you didn't know?" She responded "Yes." Asked "and you didn't know...?" She responded, "correct."

It is all a bit rich, therefore, for Ms. Taber and Ms. MacLeod to say that the judge was motivated by sexism in his apprisal of the witness. She herself said she did not know, and her recollection was not clear. It is only reasonable in such cases to assign little weight to the evidence of the witness.

Now, I don't want to criticize Jane Taber on this - no one can take a few anonymous quotes and pass them off as real news better than she can. But this story should never have run - one look at the ruling would show that there was absolutely nothing there.

I would love to see more articles on the problems facing female politicians, because the low number of elected women in Canada remains a travesty. But trying to drum up faux sexism charges against a judge doesn't help anyone.


UPDATE: Chris Selley also weighed in this morning, and points out the idiocy of the Globe accusing Lisa MacLeod of overracting, a day after running with the story on the front page.

New Ideas of the Old NDP

Since I did comment that people are focusing on the NDP name-change policy that will never happen, I have taken it upon myself to, as a favour to the NDP, raise awareness of some other worthwhile policies being debated this weekend at their convention.

Here are some of the highlights, obtained via the NDP mole:


3-67-09 Decriminalizing Recreation Drug Use

BE IT RESOLVED THAT in recognition that the criminalization of the production and use of recreational drugs is socially destructive, the New Democratic Party of Canada will use its political influence in every available forum to begin the process of decriminalizing the production and use of recreational drugs, beginning with the decriminalization of the production and use of marijuana.

BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED THAT the New Democratic Party of Canada recognizes that issues around drug use are best treated as public health issues.

Ottawa Centre (Riding of NDP MP, Paul Dewar)

This policy shows a rare amount of pragmatism on the part of the NDP. After all, increased recreational drug use among voters is more likely to increase NDP support than a name change ever would.


1-30-09 Democratic Management of Banks & Insurance Companies

BE IT RESOLVED THAT the following be added to Section 1.8 of the Policy booklet:

The New Democratic Party of Canada will actively campaign for nationalization of the big five Canadian banks and major insurance companies (including life, home and auto insurance firms), to be operated under public democratic control, with compensation to the former owners in the form of low-interest, long-term bonds; and that democratic management be exercised by an elected council of bank workers, consumers, small business folk, family farmers and the labour movement as a whole.

Thornhill

Nationalizing the banks isn't too shocking by NDP standards. But what I really like about this policy is that the banks would be run by an elected council that includes bank workers, consumers, family farmers, small business folk, and the labour movement. I think watching farmers and small business folk sitting around a table trying to run Canada's five major banks would make for one heck of a reality TV show.



1-31-09 Guaranteeing Domestic Supply and Management of Energy

BE IT RESOLVED THAT the following be added to Section 1.2 of the Policy
booklet:

The New Democratic Party of Canada will actively campaign for nationalization of the energy industry, under workers' and community control, to guarantee domestic supply and to furnish the basis to rebuild industry, and to create hundreds of thousands of jobs, especially in renewable energy and mass public transit.

Thornhill

I really think Linda Duncan should take the lead on this one...



5-34-09 Repealing the Clarity Act

BE IT RESOLVED THAT the New Democratic Party of Canada actively campaign for repeal of the Clarity Act.

Davenport

What an insane idea from a wing nut NDP member that Jack Layton would never consider...what? Oh yeah...forgot about that...



7-26-09 Exploring Merger with Other Political Party

BE IT RESOLVED THAT if this reporting process indicates that the party members and riding associations are open to the possibility of such a merger, the federal party should initiate discussions with the Green Party of Canada to consider a merger of the two parties, possibly beginning with an agreement to work together in an electoral alliance or partnership in the next federal election.

New Brunswick Southwest

Well, now that Elizabeth May has picked Saanich to run in, the Dippers could help out by re-nominating Julian West.


6-29-09 Measures to Ensure News Organizations Serve Public Interest

BE IT RESOLVED THAT the following be added to Section 6.8:

Legislation ensuring that media are separated from the corporate world through a form of trust with primary responsibility to report and comment in the public interest.

Winnipeg North (Riding of NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis)

I don't know about you, but I believe it's in the public interest for the media to report and comment on these policies...

Natural Governing Party

Adam Radwanski is spot on today:

Yes, it's not hard to dislike Stephen Harper if you watch him on a day-to-day basis. But in the big-picture sense, it's not entirely clear to your average person what it is that's fundamentally wrong with his government.

The opposition, to this point, has done a lousy job of framing the case against the Conservatives - because fundamentally, it's yet to disagree with it on major issues of economic stewardship (at least since January's budget), major social priorities, foreign policy...anything, really. There's hasn't even been a convincing, consistent argument that the government is economically incompetent - admittedly a tough case to make when it more or less adopted your budget demands

Instead, policy differences like the trumped-up EI spat are predicated on the notion that all you need is an excuse to bring it down, and that all Canadians are looking for is an excuse to replace it.

Guaranteed to be better than GI JOE

No arts grants, cast of 15, directed by Shawn Postoff, co-writer andco-producer of the US Queer As Folk, it's an epic 2+ hour YouTube mini-series, the first of its kind in the world. It's written by an award-winning screenwriter, we shot it crazy fast last October, and have been editing it since. It's very pro-Obama and pro-progressive, but also embraces conservatives as a necessary part of a healthy society. It makes fun of the left and right at the same time.

The real victims of the recession

Worldwide Slump Makes Nigeria's Online Scammers Work That Much Harder

LAGOS, Nigeria -- Online swindling takes dedication even in the best of times, the scammer said earnestly.

The spinal cord aches from sitting at a desk. The eyes itch from staring at a computer. The heart thumps from drinking bitter cola to stay awake for chats with Americans in faraway time zones. The wallet shrinks from buying potions that supposedly compel the Americans to pay.

Succeeding in the midst of a worldwide economic meltdown? That, he said, takes even firmer resolve.

"We are working harder. The financial crisis is not making it easy for them over there," said Banjo, 24, speaking about Americans, whose trust he has won and whose money he has fleeced, via his Dell laptop. "They don't have money. And the money they don't have, we want."

Hat Tip - Goalmez

The "New" NDP

It seems everyone has weighed in on the possibility of an NDP name change. I could wax on at length about the pros and cons of this but, the short of it is, it's a dumb idea and it won't happen.

Having gone to many a convention, you always get a motion or two that the media focus in on a lot more than the party members, and I suspect this is that sort of motion...I'd be surprised if it gets over 20% support in the actual vote. I know a name-change motion would be shot down in a second by Alberta Liberals - an organization that has a lot of good reasons to do something like this. So I can only assume the equally idealistic NDP would be just as quick to back away from this one, even if it made sense.

And I have a hard time seeing the benefits of dropping the "new". Consider:

1. A name change is a branding exercise and, as much as it pains me to say it, the NDP brand isn't in awful shape. They've gained seats in three straight elections, to the point where they're as successful now as they've ever been.

2. They have two provincial NDP governments who it helps them to be associated with - the only place where the NDP brand gets pulled down from its provincial wing is in Ontario (ironically enough, because of a Liberal).

3. A name change only really makes sense if the party is going under a major ideological change...and even though there's a good argument to be made for that, it doesn't sound like something the Dippers are considering. Otherwise, it's just a gimmick that won't do anything but confuse voters. It also makes for a nice hammer to hit the DP with - "a new name, but no new ideas" yada yada yada.

4. Latching their horse to the Democratic Party makes sense now, with Obama as popular as he is. But, considering how often Jack Layton has used "american" in the pejorative sense over the past few years, it's an odd donkey to hitch your wagon to.

5. Even if "new" doesn't make a lot of sense for a 50 year old party, this is a country that still has the somewhat oxymoronic "Progressive Conservative" Party...I think we can accept it. And, from a marketing perspective, "new" isn't a bad adjective to be associated with.

So, yeah, ain't gonna happen. For better or worse, the old NDP is here to stay.

Our winner...

The winner of Canada's Silliest Scandal is...



My vote would still be for Joe Clark's lost luggage, but if you consider this photo may have ended Stanfield's career, it's probably a worthy winner.

Coming Soon to a Platform Near You

...assuming the Tories actually bother to release a platform this time, that is.

Stephen Fletcher reiterates the call to eliminate public subsidies of political parties - I think it's a safe bet we'll be hearing about public subsidies, coalitions, and all the other things that made the end of last year so much fun, whenever an election is called:

Canadians outside of Quebec find it galling that the Bloc Québécois, whose raison d'être is Quebec sovereignty, receives 86 per cent of its funding from the federal government, said Democratic Reform Minister of State Steven Fletcher, who is calling for an end to political party subsidies.

"Virtually every Canadian is forced to make involuntary contributions based on parties' results. I know a lot of people in other parts of the country are not pleased that ... the vast majority of the funding that one particular party [the Bloc] gets is from this voter subsidy," he told The Hill Times last week.

As for Fletcher's straw-man argument against the BQ - I hate the Bloc, I would vote for the Tories before I voted Bloc and I would rather the Conservatives win seats in Quebec than the Bloc. But, so long as they're a political party, you have to treat them the same as everyone else. And, even if you scrap the public subsidies, there would still be millions (of taxpayer dollars) going to the Bloc and their MPs through other salaries, subsidies, and budgets.

Stephen Doesn't Play Well With Others

Silliest Scandal Final

After a close round of voting, we have our top 10, in the quest to find Canada's silliest scandal.

10. Sexgate: Alberta Premier John Brownlee goes down in defeat over a Berlusconi-esque sex scandal, with his UFA party completely wiped out - one of 3 government changes in the province's history. Only problem is, most historians have concluded the charges were mostly bogus.

9. Startovergate: A reported asks Stephane Dion a poorly worded question with mangled verb tenses. Dion asks for clarification. This showed he was not a leader.

8. The billion dollar boondogglegate: If nothing else, the opposition deserves credit for branding this one. Only problem is, the "boondoggle" in question wasn't even remotely close to a billion dollars. Or a million. Try 85 grand. And Jane Stewart's career went down in flames over something which didn't even happen on her watch.

7. Scantily-clad-womangate: NDP MP Irene Mathyssen catches James Moore looking at somewhat revealing pictures on his lap top. She raised a stink, then sheepishly appologized when Moore explained they were pictures of his girlfriend.

6. Fuddle Duddlegate: Trudeau dropped an F-bomb. Everyone knew he dropped an F bomb. And yet, debate swirled over what he'd actually said.

5. Handshakegate: Stephen Harper shakes his son's hand, instead of giving him a bear hug on the first day of school. Asshole bloggers have a field day with it.

4. Lost luggagegate: An airline loses Joe Clark's luggage. And, somehow, this made him not suitable to be Prime Minister. Him and everyone else who has ever flown Air Canada.

3. Doangate: The BQ questions the naming of Shane Doan as Team Canada's captain. And other parties, believing this is a good idea , jump in.

Which means our winner will be one of the following two scandals. Polls are open until Monday evening at 8 pm.

Footballgate: Robert Stanfield drops a football. Something Randy Moss does a few dozen times a season. Again, this made him not suitable to be Prime Minister.

Wafergate: Stephen Harper may have eaten a cracker. Or not. No one really knows. Yet this story consumed the media's attention all summer long.

What was Canada's silliest scandal?
	Wafergate
	Footballgate
pollcode.com free polls

Canada's Silliest Scandal - The Polls Are Now Open

In honour of the wafer waffle making the New York Times, nearly one month after it may or may not have occured, I've opened up a poll to crown Canada's silliest scandal - a scandal or faux-pas that generated way more media attention than it deserved. Voting will be open until Friday evening, at which point the top 2 vote getters will be invited to duke it out over the weekend for the title of Canada's Silliest Scandal.

Thanks to everyone for the suggestions - I've narrowed the field down to 17 nominees. While most of these entries are more recent, I prefer to chalk that up to history wisely discarding the silliness from our collective memory, rather than the death spiral of irrelevency Canadian politics now finds itself in.

Wafergate: Stephen Harper may have eaten a cracker. Or not. No one really knows. Yet this story consumed the media's attention all summer long.

Camcordergate: Yeah, the Liberals really fuddle duddled that one up. But, really, should one bad tape have sunk the coalition and forced the Liberals to forego a proper leadership race?

Startovergate: A reported asks Stephane Dion a poorly worded question with mangled verb tenses. Dion asks for clarification. This showed he was not a leader.

Berniergate: Yes, yes. There were some serious allegations. But, c'mon, would anyone have cared if it wasn't for a certain low cut dress?

Scantily-clad-womangate: NDP MP Irene Mathyssen catches James Moore looking at somewhat revealing pictures on his lap top. She raised a stink, then sheepishly appologized when Moore explained they were pictures of his girlfriend.

Doangate: The BQ questions the naming of Shane Doan as Team Canada's captain. And other parties, believing this is a good idea , jump in.

Handshakegate: Stephen Harper shakes his son's hand, instead of giving him a bear hug on the first day of school. Asshole bloggers have a field day with it.

Strippergate: Anyone want to guess how much media attention this would have gotten had the campaign worker in question had been a teacher, rather than a Romanian Stripper?

Warm comfy furgate: AKA Gurmant Grewalgate. Ahh...the naivete we all felt in 2005, long before before secret tape recordings became routine political news, and before David Emerson made everyone look at floor crossing differently. Sure, offers may have been implied, tapes may have been edited but, really, the whole thing was a tad silly.

Reptiliankitteneatergate: What was clearly a tongue-in-cheek press release calling Dalton McGuinty an evil reptilian kitten eater from another planet became a multi-day story. And people say elections aren't about issues.

The billion dollar boondogglegate: If nothing else, the opposition deserves credit for branding this one. Only problem is, the "boondoggle" in question wasn't even remotely close to a billion dollars. Or a million. Try 85 grand. And Jane Stewart's career went down in flames over something which didn't even happen on her watch.

Shawinigate: It was undeniably a messy situation, but does anyone besides Conrad Black really think this was worth the obsesive coverage it garnered in the Post?

Tunagate: Brian Mulroney endured dozens of scandals, most of them well deserved. But, if the scandal involves bad tuna and no one ever gets sick from bad tuna...well, that's a little silly, isn't it?

Lost luggagegate: An airline loses Joe Clark's luggage. And, somehow, this made him not suitable to be Prime Minister. Him and everyone else who has ever flown Air Canada.

Footballgate: Robert Stanfield drops a football. Something Randy Moss does a few dozen times a season. Again, this made him not suitable to be Prime Minister.

Fuddle Duddlegate: Trudeau dropped an F-bomb. Everyone knew he dropped an F bomb. And yet, debate swirled over what he'd actually said.

Sexgate: Alberta Premier John Brownlee goes down in defeat over a Berlusconi-esque sex scandal, with his UFA party completely wiped out - one of 3 government changes in the province's history. Only problem is, most historians have concluded the charges were mostly bogus.

What was Canada's silliest scandal?
	Wafergate
	Camcordergate
	Startovergate
	Berniergate
	Scantily-clad-womangate
	Doangate
	Handshakegate
	Strippergate
	Warm comfy furgate
	Reptiliankitteneatergate
	The billion dollar boondogglegate
	Shawinigate
	Tunagate
	Lost luggagegate
	Footballgate
	Fuddle Duddlegate
	Sexgate
pollcode.com free polls

Canada's Silliest Scandal

In honour of Harper's wafer waffle, now a month old and back in the news, I'll be tossing up a poll to crown Canada's all-time silliest scandal next week.

"Silliest" can be interpreted however you want, but I would suggest "gets way more attention than it deserves" as a guideline.

So submit your nominations below. Scandal names ending in "gate" are preferred, since that adds to their silliness, but suggestions of good scandals from back in the day are also welcome. Lost luggage, dropped footballs...there's definitely material there for a good list.