Election Called - Jump Into The Pool
It's official - we're off, with an October 14th Election Date. And if you want any proof that Stephen Harper a mean spirited man who shouldn't be Prime Minister, consider what he did to poor Michaelle Jean. First, he made her cancel her trip to Beijing and then he woke her up at 8 a.m. on Sunday morning. Tsk, tsk, Steve.This blog will, of course, be covering the election in great detail. I'll have relevant links on the sidebar. I'll have a "week in review" every Sunday. I'll keep the "Ad Watch" feature going. I'll do some fun numbers stuff every Wednesday. And I'll be posting on election goings-on whenever the real world gives me time to.
Be sure to try your hand at prognostication with the James Bow Election Pool and the Gaffe Pool. I'm also pleased to launch the second (almost annual) offbeat election pool. Each question is worth 1 point, with a tie-breaker to be included at the end.
1. Will Elizabeth May win her seat?
2. Will Justin Trudeau win his seat?
3. Will Senator Michael Fortier win his seat?
4. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta?
5. How many seats in Quebec will the NDP win?
6. Which polling company's final numbers will be closest to the actual result?
7. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad? (I get to play judge and jury on this one)
8. Will the word "abortion" be used in a major party TV ad? ("right to choose" doesn't count, but the word doesn't need to be spoken)
9. Which leader will get the most points in the gaffe pool?
10. Conservative Party over/under in Crowfoot - 80%.
Tie-Breaker: Number of seats won by the Conservatives.
posted by calgarygrit at
12:27 p.m.
38 Comments:
1) no
2) yes
3) no
4) no
5) 0
6) Nanos
7) Green
8) Yes
9) Dion
10) over
Tie-breaker: 161
By
Anonymous, at 12:36 p.m.
1. no
2. yes
3. no
4. no
5. 3
6. Ipsos-Reid
7. Liberal
8. no
9. Dion (I wanna say May, but is it a gaffe if no one is listening?)
10. Under
tie breaker - 141
By
Anonymous, at 12:45 p.m.
1. No
2. Yes
3. No
4. No
5. 1
6. Nanos
7. Tories
8. No
9. Dion (verbal flubs, mainly)
10. Over
By
IslandLiberal, at 1:00 p.m.
1. No.
2. Yes.
3. Yes (if you look at the province-wide swing, Vaudreuil could be close, and will get lots of money behind it... plus without Garneau, Fortier becomes the natural federalist standard-bearer).
4. No.
5. 1 (Outremont).
6. SES/Nanos.
7. The NDP.
8. No.
9. Harper (expectations of Dion are lowered enough that he will not be seen has having as many gaffes)
10. Over, thanks to the carbon tax, and... its Crowfoot.
Tie-Breaker: 162
By
french wedding cat, at 1:09 p.m.
1. No
2. No
3. Yes
4. No
5. 4
6. Nanos
7. Liberals
8. No
9. Dion (Do gaffes by Conservative candidates count?)
10. Over
Tie breaker: 159
By
Skinny Dipper, at 1:15 p.m.
1) lol no
2) yes (grumble grumble)
3) no, thanks to Brigitte Legault
4) 0
5) 0 (bold prediction I know, but all the word around here is a real Liberal is running against Mulcair)
6) Nanos (Crop in Quebec)
7) NDP
8) No
9) Dion (if only because he started with one this morning)
10) Under
TB: 160 (42 in Quebec)
By
Anthony, at 1:18 p.m.
1. No.
2. Yes.
3. No.
4. No.
5. 1.
6. Nanos.
7. Tories.
8. No.
9. Layton.
10. Over.
And 106.
By
Anonymous, at 1:21 p.m.
Yes, but will Obama be the one atop Parliament Hill when it's over? ;-)
http://www.BarackObamaForPM.com
By
admin, at 1:21 p.m.
1. no
2. yes
3. yes
4. no, but the NDP might here in Edmonton East.
5. 0
6. Ipsos-Reid
7. NDP
8. no
9. Clarification - are you asking which leader will generate the most points for his party, or which party will end up with the highest score? Nonetheless, I think I should abstain from this question out of fairness.
10. under
Tory seats: 149
By
Don, at 1:31 p.m.
Oh, and Tory seats: 139
By
IslandLiberal, at 1:51 p.m.
1. Will Elizabeth May win her seat? NO
2. Will Justin Trudeau win his seat? NO, too many Liberals want him to lose for their own agenda.
3. Will Senator Michael Fortier win his seat? YES
4. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta? NO
5. How many seats in Quebec will the NDP win? 2
6. Which polling company's final numbers will be closest to the actual result? NANOS
7. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad? (I get to play judge and jury on this one) LIBERALS
8. Will the word "abortion" be used in a major party TV ad? ("right to choose" doesn't count, but the word doesn't need to be spoken) NO
9. Which leader will get the most points in the gaffe pool? DION-the plane fiasco, didn't know what a car pool was...off to an early start.
10. Conservative Party over/under in Crowfoot - 80%. OVER
156 Conservative seats, but really to early to tell.
By
nuna d. above, at 1:52 p.m.
I know doing this as anon doesn't help but just call me anon1 for the prize.
1.no
2. yes
3. yes.
4. yes (we'll surprise everyone with a win in Edmonton)
5. 0 (poop TM will lose his chance at Jack's job)
6. Nanos
7. Tories when Libs pass them with 10 days to go.
8. no
9. May - but people will find it endearing
10. under
tie breaker - 117
By
Anonymous, at 1:54 p.m.
poop TM will lose his chance at Jack's job
I assume that was meant to be "poor" TM, but it's funnier this way.
By
IslandLiberal, at 1:56 p.m.
Check out Big City Lib - I think the first gaffe has happened and the winner is ****##### Peter MacKay, Conservative.
LOL
By
Anonymous, at 2:10 p.m.
1. No
2. Yes
3. No
4. Not a single one of them
5. Just a single one of them, Outremont.
6. Ipsos, just for kicks.
7. CPC
8. No
9. Dion
10. Over
Tie break : 145
By
jeagag, at 2:26 p.m.
1. Yes
2. Yes
3. No
4. No
5. 1
6. Environics
7. Liberals
8. Yes
9. Dion
10. Under
Tie breaker: 147
By
Unknown, at 2:27 p.m.
1. No
2. Yes
3. Yes
4. No, but if they do, it's Edmonton-
Centre, and not by much.
5. One
6. Nanos
7. The Tories will feel threatened at some point.
8. No, but "avortement" might well show up in Bloc ads.
9. Layton
10. Under.
Tie-breaker: 119
By
Maestro, at 2:29 p.m.
yes, yes, yes, no, 0, nanos, tories, no, Dion, over. 146
By
Gauntlet, at 2:55 p.m.
1. Will Elizabeth May win her seat? NO
2. Will Justin Trudeau win his seat? Yes with over 50% of the vote.
3. Will Senator Michael Fortier win his seat? No.
4. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta? Nope.
5. How many seats in Quebec will the NDP win? Zero.
6. Which polling company's final numbers will be closest to the actual result? Pollara...Ok, Nanos
7. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad? (I get to play judge and jury on this one)Conservatives when the Liberals appear to be winning.
8. Will the word "abortion" be used in a major party TV ad? ("right to choose" doesn't count, but the word doesn't need to be spoken)YES. IN QUEBEC.
9. Which leader will get the most points in the gaffe pool? JACK LAYTON
10. Conservative Party over/under in Crowfoot - 80%. UNDER
By
James Curran, at 5:45 p.m.
Oops. Tiebreaker is 106 with the Liberals forming a minority government.
By
James Curran, at 5:48 p.m.
This comment has been removed by the author.
By
Jason Cherniak, at 6:57 p.m.
1. No
2. Yes
3. No
4. Yes
5. 1
6. SES
7. Conservatives
8. No
9. Jack Layton
10. Equal
By
Jason Cherniak, at 6:59 p.m.
1. No
2. I sure hope not, for the sake of this country. But, no.
3. Yes
4. No.
5. 1
6. Nanos.
7. The LPC. The CPC has done their dirty work already, and defined Dion as a loser.
8. Yes.
9. Dion. Layton will say the stupidest things, but not count as gaffes.
10. Over.
Tie-Breaker: Number of seats won by the Conservatives. 140.
By
Möbius, at 7:00 p.m.
1. No
2. Yes
3. No
4. No (although it'd be awesome if we eventually won a shocker in like Wild Rose - I hear we have a good candidate in that riding ;) )
5. 0 (By-elections only)
6. Leger
7. NDP (they started early!)
8. Yes (if you count the NDP as a major party)
9. Dion
10. Over
Tie-breaker: 128
By
UWHabs, at 7:15 p.m.
1. No.
2. Yes.
3. No.
4. No.
5. One. (Thomas Mulcair is re-elected, but that's it. His popularity is based on the individual, not the NDP.)
6. Can't go wrong with choosing SES.
7. Liberals.
8. No.
9. Dion edges Harper.
10. Over. I'd say 83-84%.
Tie-Breaker: 131 seats.
By
MB, at 7:19 p.m.
1. No
2. No
3. No
4. No
5. 1
6. Strategic Counsel
7. Liberals
8. Mmmmmm....no?
9. Dion
10. Over
153
By
le politico, at 8:35 p.m.
1. Yes.
2. No.
3. Yes.
4. No.
5. 2.
6. SES.
7. NDP.
8. Yes.
9. Stéphane Dion.
10. Over.
Tie-Breaker: 153.
By
nbpolitico, at 8:36 p.m.
1. Ha. No.
2. Sure.
3. Yes
4. No
5. 10
6. SES
7. Liberals
8. No
9. Obvious. Dion.
10. Over
Tie Breaker: 100
By
Erin Sikora, at 9:25 p.m.
1. No
2. Yes
3. Yes
4. No
5. Three
6. Nanos
7. Conservatives
8. No
9. Layton
10. Over
Tie-breaker: 105
By
Scott, at 10:24 p.m.
1. No
2. Yes
3. Yes
4. Yes
5. 1
6. Nanos
7. The Grits
8. Yes
9. Dion
10. Under
Tie-breaker: 137
By
Anonymous, at 11:40 p.m.
1. Yep.
2. Yes.
3. Yes.
4. No.
5. One.
6. Ipsos, let's say.
7. Bloc.
8. No.
9. Dion.
10. Under.
Tie-Breaker: 105
By
dru, at 2:24 a.m.
1:no
2:no
3: no
4: no
5: 3
6 SES (I'm original..)
7: Bloc
8: Liberals
9: Dion (cause there;s a question... should really be a free square)
10: Over (crowfoot baby!)
11: 159
By
Hey, at 4:46 a.m.
1. No
2. Yes
3. Yes
4. No
5. Three
6. Ipsos-Reid
7. Liberals
8. Yes
9. Dion
10: Over
Bonus: 159
By
Anonymous, at 8:13 a.m.
1. No, unfortunately.
2. Yes.
3. Not by a longshot.
4. No.
5. 1
6. SES/Nanos
7. Conservatives
8. No
9. May by a mile.
10. Under
115
By
Anonymous, at 1:28 p.m.
Here's what the money says
UBC starts election stock market with Tories leading the way
Kelly Sinoski
Vancouver Sun
Monday, September 08, 2008
VANCOUVER - Just a day after Prime Minister Stephen Harper called a federal election, traders were already racking up "shares" on a university stock market about how they think the vote will come out.
And by Monday evening, the Conservatives were in the lead for popular vote, with predictions they would take 140 seats in the Oct. 14 election, followed by the Liberals with 97 seats, Bloc Quebecois with 35 seats and NDP with 34 seats, according to the market's website.
Although the stock market only opened Monday morning, 70 traders had invested $19,280 by 4:30 p.m. The average investment was $275.43. The Liberal plurality at the time was at 40 compared with Conservatives plurality at 93, according to the UBC market website.
"We've had a lot of interest and the traders are active," said associate Prof. Werner Antweiler, of the UBC Sauder School of Business. "Translating the popular vote results into active seats - that's the hard part and that's seen to be where our pundits have the edge because they know the political situation really well. You have to be political sophisticated."
The not-for-profit market allows traders to invest between $25 and $1,000 in real money, essentially placing bets on how they think the vote will turn out. The value of the stock is based on what traders are willing to pay for it.
By
JimTan, at 10:59 p.m.
1. No
2. Yes
3. No
4. No (but NDP will - Ed-Strathcona)
5. 2 (Outremont and WVM)
6. Nanos
7. Cons
8. Yes
9. Dion
10. Under
Tie-Breaker: 132
By
Anonymous, at 7:46 a.m.
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/article/20080908/CPELECFED02/80908249/5050/CPPRESSE
It's not an ad about abortion, but...
By
James Curran, at 7:58 a.m.
1) Yes
2) No
3) No
4) No
5) One
6) Nanos
7) Conservatives
8) No
9) Harper
10) Over
Tie-Breaker: 120
By
A View From The Left, at 10:29 p.m.
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