Sunday, September 07, 2008

Election Called - Jump Into The Pool

It's official - we're off, with an October 14th Election Date. And if you want any proof that Stephen Harper a mean spirited man who shouldn't be Prime Minister, consider what he did to poor Michaelle Jean. First, he made her cancel her trip to Beijing and then he woke her up at 8 a.m. on Sunday morning. Tsk, tsk, Steve.

This blog will, of course, be covering the election in great detail. I'll have relevant links on the sidebar. I'll have a "week in review" every Sunday. I'll keep the "Ad Watch" feature going. I'll do some fun numbers stuff every Wednesday. And I'll be posting on election goings-on whenever the real world gives me time to.

Be sure to try your hand at prognostication with the James Bow Election Pool and the Gaffe Pool. I'm also pleased to launch the second (almost annual) offbeat election pool. Each question is worth 1 point, with a tie-breaker to be included at the end.


1. Will Elizabeth May win her seat?

2. Will Justin Trudeau win his seat?

3. Will Senator Michael Fortier win his seat?

4. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta?

5. How many seats in Quebec will the NDP win?

6. Which polling company's final numbers will be closest to the actual result?

7. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad? (I get to play judge and jury on this one)

8. Will the word "abortion" be used in a major party TV ad? ("right to choose" doesn't count, but the word doesn't need to be spoken)

9. Which leader will get the most points in the gaffe pool?

10. Conservative Party over/under in Crowfoot - 80%.

Tie-Breaker: Number of seats won by the Conservatives.

38 Comments:

  • 1) no
    2) yes
    3) no
    4) no
    5) 0
    6) Nanos
    7) Green
    8) Yes
    9) Dion
    10) over

    Tie-breaker: 161

    By Anonymous john g, at 12:36 PM  

  • 1. no
    2. yes
    3. no
    4. no
    5. 3
    6. Ipsos-Reid
    7. Liberal
    8. no
    9. Dion (I wanna say May, but is it a gaffe if no one is listening?)
    10. Under

    tie breaker - 141

    By Anonymous Lou, at 12:45 PM  

  • 1. No
    2. Yes
    3. No
    4. No
    5. 1
    6. Nanos
    7. Tories
    8. No
    9. Dion (verbal flubs, mainly)
    10. Over

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 1:00 PM  

  • 1. No.
    2. Yes.
    3. Yes (if you look at the province-wide swing, Vaudreuil could be close, and will get lots of money behind it... plus without Garneau, Fortier becomes the natural federalist standard-bearer).
    4. No.
    5. 1 (Outremont).
    6. SES/Nanos.
    7. The NDP.
    8. No.
    9. Harper (expectations of Dion are lowered enough that he will not be seen has having as many gaffes)
    10. Over, thanks to the carbon tax, and... its Crowfoot.

    Tie-Breaker: 162

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 1:09 PM  

  • 1. No
    2. No
    3. Yes
    4. No
    5. 4
    6. Nanos
    7. Liberals
    8. No
    9. Dion (Do gaffes by Conservative candidates count?)
    10. Over

    Tie breaker: 159

    By Blogger Skinny Dipper, at 1:15 PM  

  • 1) lol no
    2) yes (grumble grumble)
    3) no, thanks to Brigitte Legault
    4) 0
    5) 0 (bold prediction I know, but all the word around here is a real Liberal is running against Mulcair)
    6) Nanos (Crop in Quebec)
    7) NDP
    8) No
    9) Dion (if only because he started with one this morning)
    10) Under
    TB: 160 (42 in Quebec)

    By Blogger Antonio, at 1:18 PM  

  • 1. No.

    2. Yes.

    3. No.

    4. No.

    5. 1.

    6. Nanos.

    7. Tories.

    8. No.

    9. Layton.

    10. Over.

    And 106.

    By Anonymous richard peregrino, at 1:21 PM  

  • Yes, but will Obama be the one atop Parliament Hill when it's over? ;-)

    http://www.BarackObamaForPM.com

    By Blogger admin, at 1:21 PM  

  • 1. no
    2. yes
    3. yes
    4. no, but the NDP might here in Edmonton East.
    5. 0
    6. Ipsos-Reid
    7. NDP
    8. no
    9. Clarification - are you asking which leader will generate the most points for his party, or which party will end up with the highest score? Nonetheless, I think I should abstain from this question out of fairness.
    10. under

    Tory seats: 149

    By Blogger Don, at 1:31 PM  

  • Oh, and Tory seats: 139

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 1:51 PM  

  • 1. Will Elizabeth May win her seat? NO

    2. Will Justin Trudeau win his seat? NO, too many Liberals want him to lose for their own agenda.

    3. Will Senator Michael Fortier win his seat? YES

    4. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta? NO

    5. How many seats in Quebec will the NDP win? 2

    6. Which polling company's final numbers will be closest to the actual result? NANOS

    7. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad? (I get to play judge and jury on this one) LIBERALS

    8. Will the word "abortion" be used in a major party TV ad? ("right to choose" doesn't count, but the word doesn't need to be spoken) NO

    9. Which leader will get the most points in the gaffe pool? DION-the plane fiasco, didn't know what a car pool was...off to an early start.

    10. Conservative Party over/under in Crowfoot - 80%. OVER

    156 Conservative seats, but really to early to tell.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 1:52 PM  

  • I know doing this as anon doesn't help but just call me anon1 for the prize.

    1.no
    2. yes
    3. yes.
    4. yes (we'll surprise everyone with a win in Edmonton)
    5. 0 (poop TM will lose his chance at Jack's job)
    6. Nanos
    7. Tories when Libs pass them with 10 days to go.
    8. no
    9. May - but people will find it endearing
    10. under
    tie breaker - 117

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:54 PM  

  • poop TM will lose his chance at Jack's job

    I assume that was meant to be "poor" TM, but it's funnier this way.

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 1:56 PM  

  • Check out Big City Lib - I think the first gaffe has happened and the winner is ****##### Peter MacKay, Conservative.

    LOL

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:10 PM  

  • 1. No
    2. Yes
    3. No
    4. Not a single one of them
    5. Just a single one of them, Outremont.
    6. Ipsos, just for kicks.
    7. CPC
    8. No
    9. Dion
    10. Over

    Tie break : 145

    By Blogger jeagag, at 2:26 PM  

  • 1. Yes
    2. Yes
    3. No
    4. No
    5. 1
    6. Environics
    7. Liberals
    8. Yes
    9. Dion
    10. Under
    Tie breaker: 147

    By Blogger Daniel, at 2:27 PM  

  • 1. No
    2. Yes
    3. Yes
    4. No, but if they do, it's Edmonton-
    Centre, and not by much.
    5. One
    6. Nanos
    7. The Tories will feel threatened at some point.
    8. No, but "avortement" might well show up in Bloc ads.
    9. Layton
    10. Under.

    Tie-breaker: 119

    By Blogger Maestro, at 2:29 PM  

  • yes, yes, yes, no, 0, nanos, tories, no, Dion, over. 146

    By Blogger Gauntlet, at 2:55 PM  

  • 1. Will Elizabeth May win her seat? NO

    2. Will Justin Trudeau win his seat? Yes with over 50% of the vote.

    3. Will Senator Michael Fortier win his seat? No.

    4. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta? Nope.

    5. How many seats in Quebec will the NDP win? Zero.

    6. Which polling company's final numbers will be closest to the actual result? Pollara...Ok, Nanos

    7. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad? (I get to play judge and jury on this one)Conservatives when the Liberals appear to be winning.

    8. Will the word "abortion" be used in a major party TV ad? ("right to choose" doesn't count, but the word doesn't need to be spoken)YES. IN QUEBEC.

    9. Which leader will get the most points in the gaffe pool? JACK LAYTON

    10. Conservative Party over/under in Crowfoot - 80%. UNDER

    By Blogger James Curran, at 5:45 PM  

  • Oops. Tiebreaker is 106 with the Liberals forming a minority government.

    By Blogger James Curran, at 5:48 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by the author.

    By Blogger Jason Cherniak, at 6:57 PM  

  • 1. No
    2. Yes
    3. No
    4. Yes
    5. 1
    6. SES
    7. Conservatives
    8. No
    9. Jack Layton
    10. Equal

    By Blogger Jason Cherniak, at 6:59 PM  

  • 1. No
    2. I sure hope not, for the sake of this country. But, no.

    3. Yes

    4. No.

    5. 1

    6. Nanos.

    7. The LPC. The CPC has done their dirty work already, and defined Dion as a loser.

    8. Yes.

    9. Dion. Layton will say the stupidest things, but not count as gaffes.

    10. Over.

    Tie-Breaker: Number of seats won by the Conservatives. 140.

    By Blogger Möbius, at 7:00 PM  

  • 1. No
    2. Yes
    3. No
    4. No (although it'd be awesome if we eventually won a shocker in like Wild Rose - I hear we have a good candidate in that riding ;) )
    5. 0 (By-elections only)
    6. Leger
    7. NDP (they started early!)
    8. Yes (if you count the NDP as a major party)
    9. Dion
    10. Over
    Tie-breaker: 128

    By Blogger UWHabs, at 7:15 PM  

  • 1. No.

    2. Yes.

    3. No.

    4. No.

    5. One. (Thomas Mulcair is re-elected, but that's it. His popularity is based on the individual, not the NDP.)

    6. Can't go wrong with choosing SES.

    7. Liberals.

    8. No.

    9. Dion edges Harper.

    10. Over. I'd say 83-84%.

    Tie-Breaker: 131 seats.

    By Blogger BCT 2.0, at 7:19 PM  

  • 1. No

    2. No

    3. No

    4. No

    5. 1

    6. Strategic Counsel

    7. Liberals

    8. Mmmmmm....no?

    9. Dion

    10. Over

    153

    By Blogger le politico, at 8:35 PM  

  • 1. Yes.
    2. No.
    3. Yes.
    4. No.
    5. 2.
    6. SES.
    7. NDP.
    8. Yes.
    9. Stéphane Dion.
    10. Over.
    Tie-Breaker: 153.

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 8:36 PM  

  • 1. Ha. No.
    2. Sure.
    3. Yes
    4. No
    5. 10
    6. SES
    7. Liberals
    8. No
    9. Obvious. Dion.
    10. Over
    Tie Breaker: 100

    By Blogger Erin Sikora, at 9:25 PM  

  • 1. No
    2. Yes
    3. Yes
    4. No
    5. Three
    6. Nanos
    7. Conservatives
    8. No
    9. Layton
    10. Over
    Tie-breaker: 105

    By Blogger Scott, at 10:24 PM  

  • 1. No
    2. Yes
    3. Yes
    4. Yes
    5. 1
    6. Nanos
    7. The Grits
    8. Yes
    9. Dion
    10. Under
    Tie-breaker: 137

    By OpenID cow, at 11:40 PM  

  • 1. Yep.

    2. Yes.

    3. Yes.

    4. No.

    5. One.

    6. Ipsos, let's say.

    7. Bloc.

    8. No.

    9. Dion.

    10. Under.

    Tie-Breaker: 105

    By Blogger dru, at 2:24 AM  

  • 1:no
    2:no
    3: no
    4: no
    5: 3
    6 SES (I'm original..)
    7: Bloc
    8: Liberals
    9: Dion (cause there;s a question... should really be a free square)
    10: Over (crowfoot baby!)
    11: 159

    By Blogger Hey, at 4:46 AM  

  • 1. No
    2. Yes
    3. Yes
    4. No
    5. Three
    6. Ipsos-Reid
    7. Liberals
    8. Yes
    9. Dion
    10: Over
    Bonus: 159

    By Anonymous The Invisible Hand, at 8:13 AM  

  • 1. No, unfortunately.

    2. Yes.

    3. Not by a longshot.

    4. No.

    5. 1

    6. SES/Nanos

    7. Conservatives

    8. No

    9. May by a mile.

    10. Under

    115

    By Anonymous matthew, at 1:28 PM  

  • Here's what the money says

    UBC starts election stock market with Tories leading the way

    Kelly Sinoski
    Vancouver Sun


    Monday, September 08, 2008


    VANCOUVER - Just a day after Prime Minister Stephen Harper called a federal election, traders were already racking up "shares" on a university stock market about how they think the vote will come out.

    And by Monday evening, the Conservatives were in the lead for popular vote, with predictions they would take 140 seats in the Oct. 14 election, followed by the Liberals with 97 seats, Bloc Quebecois with 35 seats and NDP with 34 seats, according to the market's website.

    Although the stock market only opened Monday morning, 70 traders had invested $19,280 by 4:30 p.m. The average investment was $275.43. The Liberal plurality at the time was at 40 compared with Conservatives plurality at 93, according to the UBC market website.

    "We've had a lot of interest and the traders are active," said associate Prof. Werner Antweiler, of the UBC Sauder School of Business. "Translating the popular vote results into active seats - that's the hard part and that's seen to be where our pundits have the edge because they know the political situation really well. You have to be political sophisticated."

    The not-for-profit market allows traders to invest between $25 and $1,000 in real money, essentially placing bets on how they think the vote will turn out. The value of the stock is based on what traders are willing to pay for it.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 10:59 PM  

  • 1. No
    2. Yes
    3. No
    4. No (but NDP will - Ed-Strathcona)
    5. 2 (Outremont and WVM)
    6. Nanos
    7. Cons
    8. Yes
    9. Dion
    10. Under
    Tie-Breaker: 132

    By Anonymous mijawara, at 7:46 AM  

  • http://www.cyberpresse.ca/article/20080908/CPELECFED02/80908249/5050/CPPRESSE

    It's not an ad about abortion, but...

    By Blogger James Curran, at 7:58 AM  

  • 1) Yes
    2) No
    3) No
    4) No
    5) One
    6) Nanos
    7) Conservatives
    8) No
    9) Harper
    10) Over
    Tie-Breaker: 120

    By Blogger A View From The Left, at 10:29 PM  

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