Monday, June 04, 2007

Monday Morning Round Up

1. Oh, sure, he's all "Mr. I Can Take a Punch" until Harry Rosen uses him in a cartoon. Watch out Aislin!

[Reader Challenge: A big kudos to whoever can find a picture of the ad online. An even bigger kudos to whoever can find some sort of proof that Stephen's stylist has picked out Harry Rosen clothing for him in the past.]

2. With PEI, Manitoba, and (for now) Quebec, all behind us, the eyes of election aficionados turn next to Ontario. SES has it in a dead heat:

Liberal 29.8%
Tories 29.8%
NDP 16%
Greens 9.3%

That, in itself, isn't too bad, but it's not a good sign for McGuinty that he ties Tory on the "best Premier" question and that wrong track beats right direction 46% to 35.3%.

I still think McGuinty will win, but both Ontario and Saskatchewan should be interesting to watch this fall.

3. Down in the States, the Dems held a New Hampshire debate on Sunday, with Edwards going after the top 2. Speculation continues about Al Gore. And for Republicans finally have a candidate able to run a credible law and order campaign.

4. This week's Hill Times has an article about Tory staffers being less than pleased about being banned from facebook. Perhaps most interesting is that Stephen Taylor is their source for defending the government position in the story (at the same time his blog hypes the new blogging Tories facebook application).

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  • 1. I got the postcard in the mail last week, if I have time I'll scan and e-mail it to you. I thought it was clever.

    2. McGuinty will (thankfully) lose. The fact that the Tory Tories haven't even come out with any policies, and are are tied with the government is quite astounding and shows McGuinty is in trouble. I think he will have a difficult campaign becuase I can't see people believing a word that comes out of his mouth. Also that 35.3% who say the province is on the right track, is probably McGuinty's cieling.

    3. Al Gore wants to be rich and famous, not president. The Republican race will be quite interesting, and quite possibly very bloody.

    4. Banning facebook is stupid - I love facebook, probably waste like an hour each day on it.

    By Blogger Andrew Smith, at 12:55 p.m.  

  • ... but both Ontario and Saskatchewan should be interesting to watch this fall.

    No argument here. I think the Ontario election will be close, possibly even resulting in a minority government. But, the Saskatchewan election will be a blow-out, possibly on the order of what happened back in 1982, with the provincial Liberals probably being wiped out, again.

    By Blogger Brian in Calgary, at 1:25 p.m.  

  • Andrew:

    I'd love to see the card too. Send along if you don't mind.

    I don't know who will win, but the fact that Tory is only even with McGuinty would be worrying. Right now, he's pretty much a blank slate. Once (if?) he starts coming out with policies, we'll know whether he's trying to be middle of the road like McGuinty/Bill Davis, or hard right like much of his caucus. THEN, the Liberals will have something to attack him on. Right now, Tory can criticize and does criticize everything the government says or does. After policies come out, McGuinty gets to punch back a bit: you say this about us, but all you plan to do is Y, or you criticize us on A but don't have any plans.

    The history of polling shows that it is easier in the pre-election period for voters to park their vote with a blank slate.

    And if Tory doesn't come out with SOME policies soon, he'll be faced with the problem of Harper's first environmental plan: overly long build-up leads to higher expectations. So if he wants to keep delaying, his policies had better be good.

    By Blogger Cerberus, at 1:25 p.m.  

  • Interesting dynamic in Ontario with regard to Ontario voters.

    They tend to vote for opposite parties provincially and federally.

    So if John Tory does win Ontario then Stephen Harper may have cause for real concern.

    If the Liberals win Ontario, which is the most likely outcome, then the federal Liberals will have cause for concern.

    It will be interesting to see if this dynamic holds up in the fall.

    By Blogger ottlib, at 2:04 p.m.  

  • "3. Al Gore wants to be rich and famous, not president."

    ummm, isn't al gore rich...and famous???

    that harry rosen kerfuffle is pure gold...these guys just cannot pass up an opportunity to show how full of piss and vinegar they are. this inability to show any emotion other than anger will be their downfall.

    By Blogger canuckistanian, at 2:31 p.m.  

  • cerberus - at least federally, incumbents usually drop during campaigns. And Tory has been around for a while already... Having the opposition leader tied for "best Premier" is never a good sign.

    brian; If Sask is going to be a blowout (I assume for the Sask Party), why would Calvert call it this year, rather than wait and see?

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 2:36 p.m.  

  • CG, re: Sask. Lorne might delay until next spring but there are pitfalls to that.

    First, stretching it out to the max highlights the desperation and that isn't something the NDP wants to showcase.

    Secondly, the NDP _will_ have a leadership change after the next election. If the NDP stretches it out then they run the risk of apathy in the ranks. That isn't smart when choosing a leader.

    Nobody would want a convention in the summer, summer is to precious in Saskatchewan to be worrying about politics. Winter is the best time, because it's high in the news and in peoples minds.

    Having the leadership in say Jan/Feb/March 2008 avoids the Legislature, gives the new leader the most time in opposition, and allows the NDP to clean house in as messy a fashion as they want to without it hanging over them the next election.

    I'm feeling here that Brian might just be correct on the results. So many prominent NDP aren't running, it's like they've decided to throw the neophytes to the wolves for a gov't or two.

    The Liberals on the other hand could position themselves to pick up the NDP bleed, at least if they were thinking that way they could.

    The problem with the Libs here is that they aren't perceived as serious and their history is not good, honourable or worthy of a vote.


    By Blogger lance, at 5:06 p.m.  

  • CG:

    I'm not so sure that is true.

    I think there are as many examples of the incumbent government going up as there are of it going down.

    I know this was the case with Harris and with Mulroney. I think it was the case with Chretien vs. Day.

    The other point is that the opposition leaders often drop as well. Certainly that is the case with a lot of NDP leaders and was the case with Day and the losing battles of the Liberals in Ontario in the 1990s. So whether McGuinty goes up or down, once Tory gives them a target, Tory is as likely to go down without any change to McGuinty's numbers. That's all I was saying about Tory.

    As it stands now though, I don't see a majority and I don't see McGuinty losing.

    By Blogger Cerberus, at 5:25 p.m.  

  • I think McGuinty will lose the upcoming Ontario election - the NDP appears to be somewhat resurgent, while the fact that the Tories (John and the party) managed to tie their respective incumbents (the premier and the Liberals) without the benefit of a pressing issue to force McGuinty's numbers down should be highly worrying to the Liberals. New Brunswick, Quebec, and PEI, anyone?

    By Blogger daniel, at 7:41 p.m.  

  • As far as Saskatchewan being a blowout, I'm just speculating. But the last poll was reported by the Regina Leader Post, and does give one food for thought. With the NDP about 26 percentage points down (compared to only 16 - 54 to 38 - in 1982), then the potential is certainly there for a political beating as bad, if not worse, than 1982, which was 55 seats to 9. Even the Premier's seat could be in jeopardy, since it is Romanow's old riding, and he was beaten in 1982 by 19 votes.

    By Blogger Brian in Calgary, at 9:01 p.m.  

  • Well if we are going by 1982, Saskatchewan voters should be very careful.

    A lot of those Grant Devine Conservatives were later convicted and some went to jail.

    Be careful who you elect.

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 11:29 p.m.  

  • To Down & Out in L A:

    I think the problem in 1982 was that the Devine Tories got in by such a huge majority (I remember thinking at the time that it was too big) that it sowed the seeds of arrogance. It gave too many of them the feeling that there was nothing they couldn't do. I think Brad Wall is much smarter than Devine (although to be honest I don't think that's any great feat), so he knows the mistakes to avoid. Certainly the people of Saskatchewan seem to think so.

    By Blogger Brian in Calgary, at 8:26 p.m.  

  • I don't think there was much arrogance after '82. I think that arrogance came after they won again in the next election.

    After seeing their policies endorsed via the polls they felt they could do no wrong.

    That's when we got the $10k, local buy, home reno grants and the like.

    Hmm. See, if Devine's Tories were 'now' they could have sold that as a means to combat GHG's. Obviously they were ahead of their time. :)

    As a reply to "down and out in LA", most of the rules the members broke were immediately made 'legal' by the NDP gov't. I mean you kind of have to have computers in the office, no?

    Two of those 'crooks' would be charged and go to jail today. Oh, wait, I guess only two did go to jail.


    By Blogger lance, at 1:39 a.m.  

  • Calvert won't wait beyond this fall. If he doesn't, the Sask NDP caucus will be wiped out in the same way the BC New Democrats were decimated 6 years ago.
    That the Sask Party will win is no question; as to the magnitude of victory, that remains to be seen. The Sask. Liberals have a shot at one seat, in Regina.

    By Blogger John Murney, at 5:48 p.m.  

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