Monday, May 28, 2007


It appears that Canada's longest serving Premier is going down to defeat in PEI. Although young leaders have been flamming out across the country, 33 year old Robert Ghiz will be taking over as PEI's Premier.

So, for those keeping score on your 2007 election ballot, that gives incumbents a 2-1 record so far. (That is, if we're exceedingly generous and give Charest a win)



  • Great title Dan. I'll be posting a larger analysis in my blog soon.

    This is a big Liberal win for sure and not a good sign for PMPM in the Maritimes for sure.

    By Blogger Mark Greenan, at 7:47 p.m.  

  • Congrats to Mr. Ghiz, but Mark, I don't think this election result is AT ALL related to PMSH's popularity in the Atlantic region. Binns dominated Island politics for more than a decade - a decade over which the Liberals held EVERY LAST SEAT on the Island at the federal level.

    This was more about "old with the old, in with the new", and had little (if anything) to do with giving Harper a flip of the bird - although I doubt Harper was holding out much hope for making inroads on PEI, anyway.

    By Blogger daniel, at 7:57 p.m.  

  • And, there does seem to be a very general pattern in Canada of the Tories doing well provincially when the Liberals are in government federally, and vice versa.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 8:08 p.m.  

  • Don't take my word for it Daniel. That comes straight from the mouth of former PEI Liberal president Tim Banks on CBC election coverage tonight. He added that internal Liberal polling showed that 47% of Island voters were against the Conservative government.

    Methinks Binns' Harper love cost him big. Were Paul Martin still PM this would've been a completely different election.

    By Blogger Mark Greenan, at 8:18 p.m.  

  • I may not be an Islander, but I've followed this election much closer than most of my fellow mainlanders, and I think I'd be hard-pressed to find the words "Stephen Harper" being muttered by anyone on either side over the course of the campaign. Besides, there were plenty of other reasons to vote against Binns.

    And that figure of 47% of Islanders opposing the Harper government actually sounds LOW to me, for a province that went so lop-sidedly Liberal in the federal election.

    By Blogger daniel, at 8:40 p.m.  

  • I hope this anti-incumbancy trend follows through to Ontario and we send Dalton McGuinty packing to the unemployment line.

    Change is good in any democracy and 11 years is a long time for any party to be in power.

    Seriously though, its PEI does it really matter who wins??

    By Blogger Andrew Smith, at 9:46 p.m.  

  • I don't really see much of a link between federal and provincial results. Traditionally, Islanders liked to align their federal and provincial governments (although this curiously never extended to the MPs they actually elected), but since Lee won reelection in 1982, almost the exact opposite has been the case. The Tories won provincially in 1982, 1996, 2000, and 2003, and the Liberals in 1986, 1989, 1993, and now 2007.

    Until about halfway through this campaign, I wasn't expecting us to win. I was expecting maybe ten Liberal seats, Ghiz would quit, and we'd be stuck with the Tories for four more years. But gradually, and especially after the big poll was published, it suddenly became clear we were going to. Ghiz surprised me; I didn't think much of him as a politician, but he really came through this time, so more power to him.

    Even then, the scale of the victory really stunned me. My riding-by-riding analysis said we'd win 16 seats for sure, and 20 and the uppermost, but we bettered that by three. The "giant-slayer" award for the evening goes to Wes Sheridan, who toppled the incumbent provincial treasurer who won by more than 1000 votes last time (keep in mind that there are 98,000 voters on the whole Island, and each riding has between 3000 and 4000 people).

    Gail Shea's loss means one less woman than I was predicting in the Legislature, but we're still at seven (six Liberals, one Tory), nearly a full third. And we've got Canada's third non-European provincial premier (we also had the first, the original Mr. Ghiz).

    By Blogger IslandLiberal, at 11:32 p.m.  

  • imagine how many more liberals would be elected in PEI tonight had Harper tried to buy their votes like he did in Quebec. that worked well eh?
    I guess harper likes poutine more than potatoes?

    By Blogger ktr, at 11:59 p.m.  

  • Don't take my word for it Daniel. That comes straight from the mouth of former PEI Liberal president Tim Banks on CBC election coverage tonight.

    I don't think I'll take his word it either, thanks.

    By Blogger The Invisible Hand, at 2:08 a.m.  

  • By Blogger raybanoutlet001, at 9:31 p.m.  

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