Thursday, November 09, 2006

Streetfight for the Crown

Here's a convenient list of information on the PC leadership race, as well as my predictions for the first ballot:


Profiles (with links to their websites)

Dave Hancock
Lyle Oberg
Mark Norris
Ted Morton
Ed Stelmach
Gary and Victor
Jim Dinning

Rules: There are no rules

Official Site: www.albertapc.ab.ca

When They Vote: November 25th. If no one gets over 50%, a second ballot with the top 3 contenders will be held December 2nd - the same day the federal Liberals pick their new leader.

The Bloggers Weigh In:
Jim Dinning - "It'll be the best Prom EVER!"
Daveberta Meets Mark Norris
Stephen Taylor Interview Ted Morton
BC Tory looks at the candidates
Ken Chapman looks at the polls
Website Traffic
Canconv on the Race


Prediction:
1. Dinning (35 to 40%)
2. Oberg
3. Morton
4. Stelmach
5. Norris
6. Hancock
7. Victor Doerksen
8. Gary McPherson

It wouldn't surprise me to see one or two drop off between now and voting day. If we get that final three, I think that would all but assure a Dinning win on the second ballot.

9 Comments:

  • Interesting predictions, CG. My guess is that you're bang on with the order of the bottom four.

    As for the top four, I think Morton will be in the top two for sure after the first ballot. In a race that seems to be capturing the imagination of no one, he has the most devoted supporters of any candidate. They'll come out and vote come hell or high water (or in Alberta's case, heavy snow or freezing rain).

    Dinning should be near the top, but he's not the lock that people think he is (though I'd be happy if your prediction came true), since it's so much harder to predict the result of a one member-one vote race.

    Oberg and Stelmach are the wild cards. Lyle has run a high-profile campaign, but he has as many enemies as he does friends, and there's no guarantee that all the PR he's getting will translate into votes. As for Stelmach, people seem to gush about what a nice guy he is (which makes you wonder if they think they're picking a premier or a boyfriend), but his policy is lacking, and I'm not sure how popular he is in the urban areas. Both of them could finish anywhere from 1st to 4th, depending on how well their PR in one case and niceness in the other translates into votes.

    That's my 2 cents, if I had to make a prediction for the first ballot it would go like this:

    1. Morton
    2. Dinning
    3. Stelmach
    4. Oberg
    5. Norris
    6. Hancock
    7. Doerksen
    8. McPherson

    By Blogger Alex, at 7:09 PM  

  • Another recent poll of actual PC card carrying members placed the three top contenders at:

    Dinning
    Norris
    Stelmach

    Not sure about the other rankings.

    By Blogger HearHere, at 7:20 PM  

  • Interesting comments - I'm really driving blind here since, given the nature of the race, it's hard to get concrete numbers (and I'm obviously not overly plugged into the inner workings of the Conservative Party).

    Oberg always does well in the polls and that's mostly what I was going on, so maybe he'll fizzle (god knows he's had a brutal campaign). Morton certainly has the most commited followers which, like Alex said, is critical if it's a snowy day.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 8:04 PM  

  • Just my two cents on the first ballot:

    1) Dinning
    2) Morton
    3) Doesn't matter

    Everyone sees Morton and wet themselves. Third place drops out (and falls right into a cabinet spot). Dinning wins in a landslide.

    By Blogger Glen, at 8:49 PM  

  • Oh, and if Morton wins, it still doesn't matter - the earth will open up and swallow Alberta whole. We'd be better off that way anyways.

    By Blogger Glen, at 8:52 PM  

  • From what (very little) I can gather, I thought there was a theory that ol' Steady Eddie could not only work his way into the #3 spot, but would collect a goodly chunk of the 2nd ballot support - perhaps even enough to win.

    Could any of you folks who are closer to the action let me know if that theory is still being passed around as credible or not?

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 8:56 PM  

  • I really think this race is about as hard to poll as it gets.

    I just can't see Dinning getting 40%. If this were a delegates race, I could see him getting 80% and taking it in a minute. However, this race will be one member one vote, and while the party elite really support Jim, I just don't think the average member does. On top of that, many of the people who Dinning seems to be targeting, I just don’t think will be as motivated to go vote as say Morton's people will be. I just can't see Dinning motivated as many people to go vote for his vague and status quo platform. I doubt much more then 60% of the people he sells memberships to will show up to vote.
    Morton's guys, like Alex was saying will get out and vote, but also sell memberships to their families, friends, and everyone else they possibly can, and make them get out and vote.

    Off course a little here, I've heard some Dinning people say too that they expect Morton to get 5% or less.......... I really can't wait to see what they have to say on the 26th.

    By Blogger Brad, at 9:00 PM  

  • Perhaps you think the Morton/Oberg camps are the more popular because you judge by the blogs and media.

    This leadership race is actually playing out on the ground. One on one as it is one member one vote.

    Morton does have a whole raft of very eager bloggers,as does Hancock who seems to have tapped into the student vote.

    Oberg has name recognition for good or for bad that is how non-member polls keep getting his name in there. Amongst PC members he is actually quite despised by many. He is also spending a lot on media.

    Morton is quite a bit like Iggy. he is an American professor who expounds on grandiose ideas which he has never put in practice in the real world. He is a rookie MLA and whispers have it that he just does not get reality in caucus meetings and is uppity because, well, after all, he IS an intellectual professor so MUST know better. He is considered to be somewhat radical. Sort of like Iggy there too.

    Jim Dinning has the money to do a pretty good media blitz as well.

    Steady Eddie has something that perhaps Dinning, Oberg and Morton do not have - respect and an excellent track record for being an honest hard working guy. He is certainly not a showboat.

    Mark Norris is young, down to earth, a good communicator and has a small business background. He has also proven to be a pretty honest work horse and I think was quite respected in his position as Economic Development Minister.
    Norris also saw firsthand how the party had disappointed people in the last election when Edmonton lost almost all PC seats - his own included. Them's pretty humbling and valuable learning experiences.

    These are the things you don't ever read about in the media . These are the kinds of conversations that happen on the ground member to member.

    By Blogger HearHere, at 9:24 PM  

  • Guy Boutilier had a falling out with Jim Dinning this week over the possibility of building a nulclear generating plant to supply the tar sands.

    Dinning in favour, Boutilier adamantly opposed.

    Boutilier promptly endorsed Oberg.

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 7:45 PM  

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