Thursday, November 09, 2006

Montana Isn't The Only Tight Race

Two new polls tonight:

CPC 33
Lib 32
NDP 19
BQ 9
Green 5

CPC 31
Lib 28
NDP 18
BQ 10
Green 9

UPDATE: I missed the Ipsos poll - in fairness, it shows the Tories still quite a bit ahead:

CPC 37
Lib 29
NDP 19
BQ 9
Green 5


  • Granted...Ignatieff is one of those crazy Russian names...but I'm almost sure it isn't spelt "CPC"

    Oh right...that other race.

    By Blogger Small Town Shyster, at 8:28 AM  

  • It's just sunk into me just now, looking at this, that the Green Party has become an accepted part of the scene in Canada. Now to wipe out the BQ, and get on with things.

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 9:51 AM  


    By Blogger paulsstuff, at 9:55 AM  

  • The Green Party always polls similarily, jumping from 5% to 9% and then gets election results close to last January.

    Accepted part of the scene is very different from political force.

    By Blogger Kyle G. Olsen, at 10:44 AM  

  • I thought an interesting fact was that the 65% alberta number is inflating the CPC numbers across Canada kinda like what the Quebec numbers do for the bloc.

    By Blogger Aristo, at 10:50 AM  

  • These polls don't mean anything. In February, when we're getting close to an election and the leaders have been chosen.. then maybe I'll take a look at the polls. But we all know the CPC will run on a budget and that will change everything. Plus we should wait and see which leader is chosen.

    Rae or Ignatieff? I expect the Lib numbers to drop to 26-28%... Dion or Kennedy? I'd think the numbers would hold and then possibly rise.

    By Blogger Riley Hennessey, at 10:53 AM  

  • Yes, they'll run on a budget.

    And the Liberals will be very happy to point out that when Stephen Harper makes a promise on budgetary matters you can take it to the bank.

    And when you get to the bank you withdraw all your money and stuff it in your mattress because Harper lies.

    You'd have to be an idiot to still believe that the budget introduced before the election will be the same one he introduces after one.

    By Blogger Reality Bites, at 11:06 AM  

  • Funny how everyone ignored the Ipsos Reid poll.

    I guess polls only get media when they show a tight race.

    By Blogger SouthernOntarioan, at 11:40 AM  

  • Using the Hill & Knowlton election predictor, the Angus Reid poll gives the Conservatives 139 seats, Liberals 77, NDP 40 and the BQ 51.

    Decima gives the Conservatives 119, the Liberals 81, the NDP 41 and the BQ 56.

    The predictor has no entry for the Green Party.

    The NDP numbers seem quite high, but another recent poll said sixty percent of Canadians don't think the Liberals deserve to be back in government.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 12:29 PM  

  • I think the Green Party eventually - like within 10 years - replaces the NDP federally...and registers higher polling numbers within 4 years.

    By Blogger Ken Chapman, at 3:34 PM  

  • If the Liberals aren't careful, the NDP will be replacing the Liberals as the official opposition. Go Iggy go!

    By Blogger Joe Calgary, at 3:44 PM  

  • All the polls make sense given their margins of error. Environics +- 2, and the others +-3.

    If the actual voter support was:

    CPC: 34
    Lib: 30
    NDP: 19
    BQ: 9
    Green: 6

    Then all three polls could make a claim to being 'correct within the margins of error'.

    BTW: Thanks for adding Ipsos =)

    By Blogger SouthernOntarioan, at 3:53 PM  

  • I dont think the Liberals will point out the conservative flip flop in an election.

    I mean, thats been their trademark for the past decade, and they will be trying to differentiate themselves, wont they?

    GST, Environmental Policies, foreign policy, etc.... the libs dont need anyone talking about flip flops.

    It would be like them running a campaign on corruption!!

    By Blogger Joe_Canada, at 5:16 PM  

  • The Conservatives will try to campaign on the Liberals' record in office regardless of what the Liberals do.

    They have to.

    Their own record, short as it is, is appalling and getting worse every day.

    By Blogger Reality Bites, at 5:56 PM  

  • reality bites writes:

    "(the conservatives') record, short as it is, is appalling and getting worse every day."

    hmmm..if you mean keeping your promises and regaining Canada's respect in the world and getinng s softwood lumber deal and senate reform in the works, cutting the gst, paying down debt, accountability act, child care allowance, new military spending...I guess that may be appaling to you but it is impressive to most others asshole ;-)

    By Blogger Rav, at 11:05 PM  

  • i meant spineless, corrupt lieberal asshole ;-)

    By Blogger Rav, at 11:07 PM  

  • Of course the Conservatives will campaign on the Liberal record.

    For god's sakes, they were the most corrupt government Canada has likely ever seen.

    Not to mention, they are BLOCKING the accountability act in the Senate. One thing we know for sure about Liberals, is that they hate accountability!

    Its just so ripe, the unelected, unaccountable Senate stalling the accountability act. Funny.

    By Blogger Joe_Canada, at 11:07 AM  

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