Friday, November 24, 2006

Meanwhile, In The Tiny Albertan Nation...

There's a new poll out today of Alberta PC members (in early November). In a race like this, I really don't trust the poll numbers, but it gives a sense of how the race is shapping up:

Q: Of the eight candidates to replace Ralph Klein as PC leader, which one will you vote for?
Jim Dinning 21%
Ted Morton 18%
Lyle Oberg 11%
Ed Stelmach 10%
Mark Norris 7%
Dave Hancock 6%
Gary McPherson 2%
Victor Doerksen 1%
Don't know 25%

I'd like to point out that this is fairly close to my predictions I made a few weeks back. Obviously, Morton has jumped ahead of Oberg due to his new jingle and the fact that he's not a complete idiot.

For those wanting to glance through my profiles, I've listed them bellow. I've also added a few "endorsements" for what they're worth:

Best for Alberta Liberal Party: Ted Morton
Best for Alberta Liberals: Lyle Oberg
If I had to pick a Premier: Dave Hancock
Best choice for the PC Party: Ed Stelmach

Profiles (with links to their websites)

Dave Hancock
Lyle Oberg
Mark Norris
Ted Morton
Ed Stelmach
Gary and Victor
Jim Dinning

MUSICAL UPDATE: I didn't think anything could be worse than the Ted Morton song, but Jim Dinning seems to have one upped him. This one is truly horrific.


  • With it this close it will come down to who can get their supporters to the polls.

    So to all the Alberta Conservatives reading this that are Supportin' Morton - make sure your car is full of family and friends when you go to vote as they can sign up at the actual polling location.

    Sign up your kids! Your parents! Your friends! Your neighbors!(Just don't sign up the deceased, we're not supporting Joe Volpe here!)

    CG - will you be attending the party at the Roundup Centre on Saturday?

    By Blogger mattgelinas, at 1:58 AM  

  • Actually Ted Morton is the best for all Albertans. He will create a far right Tory party that will aid the Liberals and NDP. And will be the death of the one party state.

    By Blogger eugene plawiuk, at 4:36 AM  

  • I know I'm being even more obtuse than usual, but I don't get the distinction between "Best for the Alta LP" and "Best for the Alta Liberals".

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 9:59 AM  

  • jason; I think Morton gives the ALP the best chance to gain seats. Given internal difficulties, I think Oberg is a close second there. But since Oberg as Premier scares me a lot less than Morton as Premier, even if he does get re-elected, a liberally-minded person in Alberta could probably tolerate him as premier more than they could Morton.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:06 PM  

  • If accurate the big news in that poll is the 21% for the heir apparent. I doubt he'll be taking the next week off to plan his cabinet.

    Dinning needs the 3rd guy way back so that it's a two man race between him and #2. If not there could be a serious race between #2 and #3 while Dinning melts quicker than Calgary in a Chinook.

    By Blogger anonymous, at 1:17 PM  

  • anon; In fairness, the polls for Lib leadership had Iggy at 19% and he came in at 30% on Super Weekend. And that was of all eligible voting members - in this race people can sign up right to the moment so this was probably only a poll of half the people who will be eligible to vote.

    But still, it's sensational news for Morton and somewhat troubling for Dinning.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 1:38 PM  

  • CG, I doubt Dinning will be as low as that poll, but if he actually was I would not be surprised to have two candidates in the high teens. Dinning would be at risk of coming in 3rd as public attention shifts massively to the two with momentum. Dinning's been heir apparent for so long that 21 would be fatal.

    By Blogger anonymous, at 2:00 PM  

  • Jeezuuuusss - I didn't think anything could be worse than the Ted Morton song.

    Song for Jim? Kill me now. Flat, boring and stupid.


    By Blogger Stephen Carter, Carter McRae Events, at 4:51 PM  

  • Now I know what aural torture our guys in the 'Stan can mete out to any unforthcoming Taliban. Imagine, if you can, the Jim song being played over and over and over. Imagine how quickly you'd talk, sell your grandmother, decide Quebec really was a nation but that it didn't actually mean anything, just to make the awful noise stop.

    By Blogger jaycurrie, at 6:00 PM  

  • Exactly how much gain do you think the Libs and Dippers are going to get from Morton?

    Let's remember the best outing for the ALP in the last three decades. Who was the Premier at the time? Red Donald G.

    The worst outing for the ALP? 1997 when Klein was at his farthest rightward swing.

    Gee, why on earth would Tories ever want to repeat that showing?

    By Blogger Feynman and Coulter's Love Child, at 6:33 PM  

  • Thanks for clearing that up, CG.

    I still say that Dinning needs to watch out for Steady Eddie, IF he can swing 3rd spot in round 1. I can easily see him getting a lion's share of the 2nd-choice votes which, IIRC, can go a long way if nobody gets 50%+1 in round 2.

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 9:14 PM  

  • hickman - I agree. Stelmach isn't disliked by anyone to the same degree Dinning and Morton are so if he's left with those two, he could certainly win.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 10:21 PM  

  • F&C, Klein may have been at his "rightmost", but the Liberals had lost Laurence Decore, a fairly conservative Liberal. Further Klein was starting to benefit from an economic recovery - context, context, context!

    I do agree, however, that the left-right thing is not perfectly clear-cut. On the one hand Dinning may have trouble arousing the base, while, on the other, Morton will lose some centrist voters.

    Alberta political parties have more of a tendency to defeat themselves by being in power too long and just sort of existing for the sake of power itself. Though at least the Alberta PC's don't have the problem of the Socreds in the 60's - being run by regular Albertasauruses.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 2:02 PM  

  • Well right now all the Liberals have is Kevin Taft, and if Morton wins Taft's best (well, only, actually) ammunition -- his 12 1/3 page book about the Klein government -- will be useless. Dinning might appear in the tome but Morton sure doesn't.

    The Liberals would basically need another Laurence Decore. The only candidate I can think of for that is Jim Dinning doing his best Nancy MacDuff impersonation. Would be quite the followup to Taft, that's for sure! Like having Bob Rae succeeding Mike Harris.

    By Blogger Feynman and Coulter's Love Child, at 5:56 PM  

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home