Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Poll Smoking

This post is really nothing more than an exercise in self-congratulation, but I'd just like to point out that my Liberal leadership predictions were way better than anything put out by the MSM or major polling companies. Political Mouse does the comparison and, while Greg Morrow comes out on top, every blogger who put out weekend predictions came closer than the polls or media. I mention this only because I got a bit of flack for saying the polls we saw on the Liberal leadership race were garbage and it just shows that, for internal party matters, your average Liblogger is more tuned in to what's really going on than your average journalist.

Anyways, as a refresher, here's how my national and Alberta predictions stacked up to the real numbers (pending the final few ridings):

National
Michael Ignatieff 29.9% (I said 26.7%)
Bob Rae 19.8% (17.9%)
Gerard Kennedy 16.8% (17.7%)
Stephane Dion 16.5% (14.6%)
Ken Dryden 4.6% (7.2%)
Joe Volpe 4.6% (7.8%)
Scott Brison 4.0% (6.3%)
Martha Hall Findlay 1.0% (1.9%)


Alberta
Gerard Kennedy 27.8% (I said 26%)
Michael Ignatieff 24.7% (24%)
Stephane Dion 17.9% (16%)
Joe Volpe 9.4% (8%)
Bob Rae 9.0% (12%)
Scott Brison 2.7% (7%)
Ken Dryden 2.7% (2%)
Martha Hall Findlay 2.2% (3%)
Undeclared 3.6% (2%)

(and Brison should move up a bit once the aboriginal ballot is counted)

9 Comments:

  • Congradulations again Calgary Grit and I only wish I actually had a prize to give away!

    By Blogger Giant Political Mouse, at 3:58 PM  

  • Well done to us!

    By Blogger Cerberus, at 4:33 PM  

  • Clearly, this is the greatest Subject Heading on a post ever.

    (Nice work on the polls, sport)

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 4:34 PM  

  • Well done Calgary Grit, Cerberus, DemocraticSPACE...! Bloggers paid closer attention and worked harder to come up with the numbers.

    The MSM simply followed the polling firms and neither did their homework.

    Allan Gregg should consider retiring.


    Allan Gregg said on September 20, 2006:

    "It’s going to be a long night," he said of the convention vote. "But if you had to put money on it, you’d bet Rae right now."

    Allan Gregg said on October 1, 2006:

    "It’s far from over, because you’ve seen three other candidates with good, solid support," said pollster Allan Gregg of The Strategic Counsel.

    However, "I think if you’re a betting person, you’d have to put money on Michael Ignatieff right now," he said.



    I'm glad that I'm not a betting person. I'm even more glad that I didn't listen to the so-called professional polling firms such as Strategic Counsel!

    By Blogger polfilma, at 6:12 PM  

  • I want it noted that I strongly defended you against attacks and I said I would take you over Allen Gregg anyday

    By Blogger Aristo, at 6:17 PM  

  • jason; In fairness, poll smoking is a Daily Show segment...

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 6:18 PM  

  • Hey Polfilma, if you're going to cut and paste our post on Allan Gregg's betting advice, please give us a link. Thanks.

    By Blogger Libnews.ca, at 6:50 PM  

  • Hey Libnews.ca, I was going to, but for some reason it didn't show up on the post. Thanks for the link. ;)

    By Blogger polfilma, at 9:02 PM  

  • Calgary Grit,

    You may be closer than you think in some instances when the real numbers are in, I believe you were predicting on the basis of leadership vote, whereas the numbers posted to date are on percentage of delegates. So wait and see...I have predictions too, may not match yours, but I'm prepared to wait

    By Blogger LiberalAtHeart, at 7:58 PM  

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