Sunday, October 01, 2006

Open Thread

I'm too busy hitting refresh and too tired after two days of non-stop campaign stuff to try and write anything coherent.

Discuss the results among yourselves...

77 Comments:

  • Sad to see Martha, Dryden, and Brison doing a bit lower than expected, but it is interesting how all the predictions aren't off by more than about 3% per candidate.

    The big questions to be resolved by the late numbers tonight and tomorrow:

    [nationally]
    -Will Ignatieff stay above the 30% barrier?
    -Can Rae crack the 20% barrier he's been flirting with?
    -Will Kennedy catch Dion for the #3 spot?
    -Will Volpe stay ahead of Brison?
    [regionally]
    -Will Kennedy catch Ignatieff in Ontario?
    -Will Ignatieff catch Kennedy in Alberta?
    -Bob or Kennedy in BC?
    -Can Bob hold half the spots in Manitoba?
    -Will Martha win a seat in the maritimes?
    -Who will end up the Champion in the Prairies? The West? The Maritimes?

    By Blogger UWHabs, at 2:24 AM  

  • Congrats on sweeping the Northwest Territories!

    By Blogger J. Kelly, at 3:05 AM  

  • Hey, you stole my thread (after commenting in it)

    Pebbles

    Snap!

    By Blogger Liberal Pebbles, at 4:29 AM  

  • CG,

    Do you think Brison, Volpe or Dryden will bow out before convention night in hopes of fueling Rae, Dion or Kennedy's chances of overpowering Iggy?

    Kennedy seems to be really strong in Ontario, it looks like he is still very much a contender.

    By Blogger Riley Hennessey, at 8:08 AM  

  • I'm really disappointed that Martha Hall Findlay's so far behind Brison and Volpe and, as far as I understand it, Undecided. Too inexperienced to win, sure - but I'm surprised there's so few on her bandwagon.

    Maybe she hasn't talked enough, maybe she could have used Israel-Lebanon to define herself more strongly - but I've a feeling that wouldn't have helped.

    Anyway, I like her and respect her and would be completely satisfied if she was a distant fifth or sixth to the frontrunning four. But that's just me.

    Also, I've started to get the feeling that Rona Ambrose might be a real consideration for the CPC members, and maybe then for Canadians, to be first elected female PM.

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 8:29 AM  

  • Dryden, Volpe and Brison together, if they controlled their supporters, could barely make Rae pull even with Ignatieff. And they don't; they would leak support out the butt and Iggy would remain ahead.

    Kennedy and Dion have big decisions to make. They probably won't. I don't believe Iggy has nearly run out of room to grow. Get to like him, Grits; you'll be seeing a lot of him.

    By Blogger Paul, at 9:55 AM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 10:18 AM  

  • To have an impact on this race, Kennedy has to quickly get behind Dion.

    He is young, has a great future but is unproven in some people's eyes.

    Dion has the experience and the political scars .

    Kenndy is weak in French. Dion weak in English. Toether they would make a great team.

    With the Chretienites perceived to be backing Rae and the Martinites backing Ignatieff, a quick Kennedy Dion merger would change the dynamic ic this race dramatically and would create excitement.

    My guess is that Dion has just one or two federal elections left in him and Kennedy would have a great mentor to grow under.

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 10:20 AM  

  • Martha Hall Findlay has outlasted three elected MPs in this race. She has no constituency to speak of. No caucus colleagues. No high profile in or out of politics. That's she's made it this far without making a fool of herself I think is quite an achievement. Joe Volpe can't say the same, and he's got all kinds of advantages over her, despite all the discrimination he apparently faces. Ha ha.
    ________________________

    One thing I'm watching out for is to see if someone finally takes the gloves off and starts going after Iggy. The rules of this race require that candidates don't offend the supporters of other candidates too much. Well, if someone other than Iggy is going to win, they're going to have to put him through the kind of paces he'll face once Harper gets a shot at him eventually anyhow. It's unlikely Iggy supporters will go to any of the other frontrunners. So, go for the jugular, guys. You may only have one shot at it, so you might as well take it. It's politics, not the get along and be happy society.

    By Blogger Dennis (Second Thoughts), at 10:32 AM  

  • It seems like Kennedy's absolute no-show in Quebec is his big story. The numbers look great in the West and in Ontario, but east of the Ottawa River he's getting absolutely nothing. That's obviously his biggest problem and dissapointment.

    By Blogger Shawn, at 10:42 AM  

  • Will Scott Brison blame rampant homophobia in the Liberal Party for the fact that he's running behind Joe Volpe, who's blaming anti-Italian prejudice for the fact that he's running behind Ken Dryden, who'll blame Leaf fans for the fact that he's running behind Gerard Kennedy?

    By Blogger Loyalist, at 10:51 AM  

  • Cyber Menace, that's a great positive spin on Martha H F - I like it. Thanks.

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 10:55 AM  

  • Martha Findlay Hall is a sincere person, and many like her. However, her candidacy was impulsive.

    Her lack of political experience and organization shows. Note that Volpe despite his bagggage performed much better in every province.

    Her campaign attempted to run on sheer hard work. But, that is not enough.

    There's always someone in every election who hopes to beat the odds. In this election, there were just too many better-qualified candidates.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 11:56 AM  

  • At this point, I would say things are looking good for Iggy - he has had solid results, and is very strong across the country. Since he is the second ballot choice of some people, he will probably win by gradual attrition if all three of Rae, Kennedy and Dion don't get together soon.

    I don't think Kennedy has the legs nationally for people to coalesce behind him - 7 delegates in Quebec is not so good. Incidentally though, Kennedy is probably a strong second in voter support (Ontario tends to have larger Liberal riding associations), especially outside la belle province.

    In the ROC, of course, things look very different:
    GK: 440 21.8%
    MI: 574 28.4%
    Volpe: 99 4.9%
    Dryden 122 6.1%
    Brison: 95 4.7%
    Dion: 266 13.2%
    Rae: 348 17.3%
    HF: 28 1.4%
    UD: 44 2.2%
    total: 2016

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 12:05 PM  

  • jimtan: Findlay isn't running to win, and came out of nowhere, with nothing even resembling the machine that Volpe had at his disposal. She's gained the stature she sought.

    Volpe, well...

    By Blogger Demosthenes, at 12:32 PM  

  • Martha should be proud of how she's run this race, regardless of how her results finish up.

    I hope she stays in the race and brings most of her 100 delegates with her to Montreal - it's been a great story for the party.

    Volpe will stay in to screw over Iggy.

    Dryden and Brison deserved better but fell victim to the lack of media attention I think (as did Kennedy to a lesser extent). They've got tough decisions to make now.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 12:46 PM  

  • This is beautiful. A candidate is leading the leadership race of the self-described Party of Canadian Values", who has spent virtually his entire adult life outside of Canada, much of it in America, and refers to himself as "us" in writing for American consumption. If any other party put up such a candidate the anti-American bigotry and xenophobia coming from the Liberal Party would be stunning to behold. If you guys don't think Harper is smart enough to turn that around and make you look like the opportunistic unprincipled fools you are, then prepare to become roadkill.

    By Blogger Grithater, at 12:53 PM  

  • hosertohoosier,

    Disagree with some of your observations. All four of the top 4 have problems.

    Iggy: perceived too right wing for most Liberals. With Brison's delegates does not hit 35%. Prediction for next 2 months - try to position himself more left-wing (centre).

    Gerard: great achievement for someone who was a provincial minister (with no Federal experience) at the start of the year. Great Rest of Canada result, poor Quebec result. Prediction for next 2 months - more French lessons and lots of experience speaking French while courting Quebec delegates (expect French to be better than Harpers in Montreal).

    Rae: Who wudda thought it. Not most Liberals in Ontario who are giving their former premier only 15.4% support. He proves that smarts, experience, and money are just as important as ground game. Prediction for next 2 months - more of the same (why mess with success, first place among left of centre leadership candidates across all of Canada is impressive).

    Dion: In second behind Iggy in Quebec. That is fine, but he is only 17 delegates ahead of Rae in Quebec. Rest of Canada numbers disappointing for most supporters. Prediction for next 2 months - I'm not sure, maybe hope.

    By Blogger Peter, at 1:10 PM  

  • As an interested liberal leaning voter but non-Liberal member, I really like the suggestion of a Dion-Kennedy led Liberal party. That might brink me back to voting Liberal after two elections voting for other guys.

    By Blogger Matthew, at 1:26 PM  

  • The more I think about a Dion-Kennedy partnership the more I like it. It harkens back to the great dual partnerships of Canadian parliamentary history: Baldwin-LaFontaine, Macdonald-Cartier, King-Lapointe, Martin-Lapierre (oops, scratch that last one). But you see what I mean. Dion and Kennedy supporters should think about it.

    By Blogger Matthew, at 1:41 PM  

  • Dion would make an excellent deputy PM/Environment Minister to Prime Minister Gerard Kennedy.

    By Blogger Manitoba Liberal, at 1:45 PM  

  • Volpe always had a constituency that could produce delegates. It's probably why the party didn't turf him after the kiddie donor scandal.

    Hall Findlay had nothing, and she's done nothing but impress people along the way.

    Don't know what it will gain her, beyond the respect she's earned for herself, of course. We'll see.

    By Blogger Dennis (Second Thoughts), at 1:46 PM  

  • Still think that Kennedy going to Dion is the best hope for the future of the party and in the best long term interests of both candidates.

    Dryden could easily go to Dion as could Brison.

    I also believe that all ex-officio delegates should support Martha Hall-Findlay on the first ballot in Montreal because

    1. It would validate her candidacy.

    2. The first ballot isn't going to decide the leader.

    3. She might finish ahead of Volpe, which is what almost everybody wants.

    4. Martha has shown well and deserves a higher level of support.

    5. It will serve the party well to have an intelligent, well spoken woman in the forefront in the future and would be a welcome change from the women who have been featured recently.

    Get those ex-officios to support Martha !!

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 1:55 PM  

  • I think Dryden, Volpe, Brison, and Hall Findlay could still play a significant role in determining who faces off against Ignatieff. If they all want to either Rae, Kennedy, or Dion, that would put the person they went to in a clear second place.

    I also have a feeling that between Kennedy and Dion, whichever one is dropped off first, he will go to the other one. Despite all this talk of Rae having more room for growth than Ignatieff, I believe Kennedy and Dion have even more room for growth than Rae. Most Liberals want to win the next election and they realize that Kennedy and Dion have very little baggage Harper can attack them on. Those two can also unite the Liberal Party since I have yet to meet one Liberal who would quit the party if either of those two one, whereas I have met Liberals who would quit if Rae won and also if Ignatieff won. Part of the reason Harper won the last election is he was able to unite Conservatives while we were divided between the Chretien and Martin factions. In fact main reason we are the natural governing party is it is usually the Conservatives, not the Liberals who have infighting between the various factions. Therefore we need someone who can bring all sides of the party together.

    By Blogger Miles Lunn, at 2:39 PM  

  • If Dion and Kennedy team up, they have to do it sooner rather than later - waiting for the other to fall of the ballot would be fatal. As time drags on, there will be attrition, especially in the camps with poorer organizations and less chance of winning. However, both have a strong incentive NOT to do that, because by waiting, Dion or Kennedy can hope the other gets taken out anyway.

    The "nobody's second ballot" choice may be true for Iggy, but he is still looking very strong. Ex-officio votes should put him up to about 35%. So if it is a race between him and say Rae at 19%, Rae needs to pick up 67% of all delegates - which is harder than it looks. Delegates don't just vote ideologically, they also vote for who they think can win a general election.

    As well, I'd be very surprised if no leadership contenders went to Ignatieff. Brison will, almost surely, but others can be bought off with the promise of jobs. If a Kennedy-Dion alliance looks like it is forming, and likely to win, Ignatieff will get out his check-book and start writing i-o-u's. The fact that nobody has dropped out and backed Iggy yet, means that all the plum jobs are still up for grabs.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 3:05 PM  

  • CG,

    I have a question. If you are so hip inside the power corridors of Liberaldom, how come you never send anything via your wireless blackberry?

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 3:06 PM  

  • Only self impotant Liberal twats feel the need to inform the world that they are so important and so keyed into the power circles that they must blog from their blackberry while taking part in a very important meeting somewhere in a smokey backroom.

    This post was sent via my wireless blackberry!

    By Blogger Manitoba Liberal, at 3:13 PM  

  • Findlay isn't running to win, and came out of nowhere, with nothing even resembling the machine that Volpe had at his disposal.

    Is that your subtle way of saying that unlike Volpe, all of her supporters are alive? ;)

    By Blogger Reality Bites, at 4:07 PM  

  • What's an ex-officio delegate?

    I too think it's important - very - that Hall Findlay wind up ahead of Volpe. Again, I'm not saying she should win - she should just place strong. She could be a real bonus to the Liberal party in the future.

    Chucker, Manitoba - tee hee.

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 4:31 PM  

  • yeah, Manitoba Liberal is a very funny guy. To bad about the Liberalitis. But that can be cured with a whallop of a tax cut in the next budget.

    By Blogger Chuckercanuck, at 4:42 PM  

  • I'm going to be the resident jerk and say that I wasn't very impressed with Martha Hall-Findlay. Having no baggage and no constituency, one might have thought she would have injected some sort of new ideas into the race - given that she lacks the constraints of the more prominent candidates. She is the archetype of the candidate that starts out in last, but to whom people come around to - beating expectations, then generating massive momentum.

    I am impressed that Joe Volpe can have nothing but negative headlines - taking money from kids, signing up dead people, etc. and still not come last. Now there's an organizer.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 4:58 PM  

  • I don't think Kennedy will join up with Dion to be honest. Both candidates recognize each other to be weak in either Quebec or Ontario and you can't have a 'joint-Prime Ministership'. The Tories would have a field day pointing out any perceived contradictions between the two during any campaign.

    The solution is to go either for Rae or Iggy at this point. I think Kennedy's dismal performance in Quebec is going to be key. He has to drop out.

    Dion will stick around I think, mostly as a result of his status as the only francophone and maybe he hopes that one or the other (Rae or Iggy) will abdicate to him when they realize he holds the key to power.

    Kennedy won't go for Iggy, so I suspect he'll join Rae.

    Its just a hunch though.

    But with dead Liberals voting, children donating thousands, an NDP ex-premier and a Harvard professor running, nothing would surprise me now.

    By Blogger SouthernOntarioan, at 5:03 PM  

  • Jason bo green;
    Exofficio delegates are Elected members of Parliament as well as all the people who ran for MP and were defeated in the 2006 election.All 308 federal ridnng presidents. LPC Officials from each Province. Former Cabinet Ministers. Generally they are called Automatic delegates and do not have to run at a DEM to go to Conventions.

    By Blogger Lolly, at 5:13 PM  

  • I would agree that the Kenndy Dion merger has to happen quickly to change the dynamic of the race.

    And I thought Martha injected life into the campaign.
    Good shot at Brison in the first debate.

    Lively one on one with Dion and held her own easily.

    Looking at the results, Dion and Kennedy are a natural fit.

    The onus is on Kennedy.

    Does he have the political maturity to recognize that this is his best hope for the future, if he is not going to win.

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 5:23 PM  

  • What's an ex-officio delegate?

    Jason, an ex-officio is a person who gets to go to the convention automatically. They would be former candidates, riding association presidents, some party officials, former MP's and former Senators. There should be 1000 of them going to Montreal.

    By Blogger Zac, at 6:00 PM  

  • Is anyone else having problems with the online ticker at Liberal.ca?

    It's just sitting there "loading".

    By Blogger Zac, at 6:01 PM  

  • Kennedy has pulled a head of Dion and is now in 3rd.

    It's a pretty pitch battle between Kennedy and Iggy in Alberta. Tied at 90 delegates each at this point.

    I can't believe there are 24 Volpe delegates from Alberta...

    By Blogger daveberta, at 6:44 PM  

  • I like Dion a lot. If he showed more strength in his own province and across Canada, I would have to agree with those suggesting Gerard walk to Dion. However, the reality is that it is makes more sense for the walking to occur in the opposite direction.

    IMO, Gerard (social conscience, progressive, view on Afghanistan) is more alike the average Quebecer than probably Rae or either of the two professors. The problem is that Quebecers just don't know him.

    Harper in 2004: 8.8% of vote
    Harper in 2006: 24.6 % of the vote

    Dion's numbers in Quebec are rather unimpressive as well. At present, with 52/97 meetings reported, he is only 17 delegates away from THIRD in his own province. And he shows no real strength in any other region in Canada (about 13% outside Quebec). Don't get me wrong. As I said above, I like Dion a lot. It's just that after 6 months, he and his team have not achieved the results that us progressives would have expected, and need to be assured that Harper's tenure is short-lived!

    MississaugaPeter

    By Blogger Peter, at 6:46 PM  

  • davealberta,

    Lots of good, live Italian-Liberals in Calgary and Edmonton. On the second ballot, we need those Italians to join the Ukrainians (who voted for Gerard on the first ballot).

    By Blogger Peter, at 6:51 PM  

  • Lolly, Zac - thanks. I'd never heard the term before.

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 6:59 PM  

  • Low membership numbers in Alberta, plus a high concentration of new Canadians (who are a fair chunk of Volpe's base) are why he has done well in Alberta.

    Peter, winning Quebec is key to the Liberal party's status as Canada's natural governing party. Kennedy's French is worse than Harper's, and that he may share the views of French Canadians means little (see: CCF/NDP results in Quebec). Quebec's socialism has a nationalist bent to it, and social programs that have national symbolism elsewhere, like universal healthcare, do not in Quebec (look at most polls on two-tier healthcare on that one). Can you envision a Liberal majority government without Quebec? Its mathematically tricky, and requires Gerard Kennedy going over a lot better in places like Moosejaw.

    Dion may be weak in Ontario, but he is not 7 delegates weak.

    Incidentally now that Kennedy has pulled ahead of Dion (though once more Quebec results come in, I suspect Dion may move back to third), he may refuse to make a move. This puts the ball in Dion's court, and I can't see Dion going to Kennedy, given the Quebec problem.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 7:06 PM  

  • Guys and galls, don't look now, but Kennedy is on the verge of overtaking Ignatieff for the lead in Ontario. That would have to be the accomplishment of the leadership race so far, if he can do it. Too bad Kennedy has absolutely stunk the joint in Quebec. The one great achievement would be nullified by the other horrible failure. Oh well.

    And the one person smiling during all of this is Iggy himself. Kennedy's strong finish means Dion will have faded somewhat, and none of the three challengers look good to take on the top dog right now.

    By Blogger Dennis (Second Thoughts), at 7:31 PM  

  • KENNEDY HAS TAKEN THE LEAD IN ONTARIO! It's coming down the stretch! Can he hang on? Neck and neck. Kennedy. Iggy. Kennedy. Iggy, as they're heading towards the finish line, it's, it's, it's......

    By Blogger Dennis (Second Thoughts), at 7:38 PM  

  • If Kennedy and Dion can't strike a deal it willbe bad news for the Liberal party.

    Kennedy is largely unproven in the eyes of Canadians outside Ontario.

    Dion has integrity and has been a passionate defender of Canada and Federalism in theface of adversity, to the point where his wife and daughter required 24 hour security protection.

    He alone among federalists, responded to the three great letters advocating separation for Quebec.

    In short, he has proven himself.

    Together Kennedy and Dion are formidable.

    Four weeks from now, they both may be forgettable.

    Kennedy has good ideas. Dion has credibility, integrity and experience.

    Geographically, they compliment each other in terms of voter appeal and support.

    Wake up. Forget personal ambition. And do what is best for Canada and the party.

    Find a way to work together.

    Maybe based on the British Blair/Brown model.

    Dion agrees to lead for 5 years and then turn it over to Kennedy . . .

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 8:22 PM  

  • It would be interesting to know which ridings are coming in when. My guess is that in Ontario, the first ridings to report were in eastern and central Ontario, and hence favoured Iggy. Later returns from the GTA, would swing things in favour of Kennedy, but, moving into southwestern Ontario, probably back towards Ignatieff.

    My guess on Quebec is that Montreal is starting to report in, which will reduce Ignatieff's lead there.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 8:45 PM  

  • Interesting comments about an unholy alliance between Dion and Kennedy. Question for my Liberal friends - where do you think the left leaning Power Corp backed Bob Rae would go with his support? Let's see? Hmmm Ignatieff + Rae = 50%. Give it up.

    If I were on the Ignatieff I would encourage Iggy to give that young Mr. Kennedy a call. Which, in the end, is the unholy alliance that I feel will come out of this.

    By Blogger Trav, at 8:57 PM  

  • The problem that I have with Kennedy going over to Iggy is that I don't think many of his followers would actually want to follow.

    Kennedy didn't pull his policy on Afghanistan out of a hat. I also don't think it's a coincidence that that Boris dude is also in Kennedy's camp, along with some other leftish people on foreign policy.

    I suspect the most moderate followers of the three main challengers come from the Dion camp yet, being from Quebec, it's hard to see him endorsing Iggy's Bush-lite approach, too.

    The combined delegate support of the three main challengers easily surpasses that of Iggy. They're all left-of-centre, especially on foreign policy.

    I don't have a hard time seeing many of these delegates wanting to stop Iggy in some way. The problem is, however, a strategy of doing just that, given the uneven support all three challengers seem to be getting coming out of Super Weekend.

    Should be interesting, though.

    By Blogger Dennis (Second Thoughts), at 9:08 PM  

  • Gerard and his team have done an incredible job of going from nothing to a SECOND PLACE FINISH ACROSS CANADA (excluding Quebec).

    Now the job of going from almost nothing in Quebec to VICTORY in Montreal begins.

    Hopefully now Gerard's work ethic, SID (sincerity, decency, integrity) and charisma will receive the exposure in Quebec they deserve.

    I am sure Gerard's campaign website will be thanking all those who have worked so tirelessly and enthusiastically the past few months.

    MississaugaPeter

    By Blogger Peter, at 9:47 PM  

  • Kennedy and Iggy are going neck and neck in Ontario - it will be exciting to see the final result.

    From what I know, the Kennedy camp will be more than pleased with the results, especially in Ontario. The results in Quebec are expected, but I think the national media will react to it more negatively than it deserves.

    Here are some of my predictions on what will come out:

    1. I think Volpe will quit the leadership rather than pay the $20000, now that he knows his delegate support is minimal. A friend of mine believes that Volpe will hang in there, if "only to make a point". Moreover, no one wants his support, as it will be seen more like a burden than an advantage.

    2. Hall Finlay should not be disappointed with the results, although I don't think they will see that way. I would like to think that Finlay will swing her support behind Kennedy because of connections within the campaign teams, but I don't think that will happen until she gets knocked out in the voting in December

    3. I just can't see Dryden or Brison continuing on, but I have no idea on where they might go. If Brison decides to drop out before Montreal, I would think that many of his delegates will decide against attending.

    4. I could see it where Dion and Kennedy agree to work it out where if one gets knocked out in Montreal, they shift their support to the other. But this is just speculation.

    By Blogger Peter Konieczny, at 9:51 PM  

  • I don't know how anyone can paper over Ignatieff's complete stink job in Quebec. ONE PERCENT!

    I mean, you have to think it's over for Kennedy based on that alone.

    I'm sure we'll here a lot of "we have a lot of work to get our message out in Quebec" BS from the Kennedy camp over the next few days, but come on. I repeat, ONE PERCENT in Quebec.

    Newsflash: you spent way too much time and money in Ontario, not enough in Quebec. It borders on incompetence, if you ask me.

    By Blogger Dennis (Second Thoughts), at 10:06 PM  

  • I meant Kennedy's complete stink job. Sorry.

    By Blogger Dennis (Second Thoughts), at 10:07 PM  

  • I don't think its an accident that the top four contenders in Quebec are who they are. Kennedy drops to the back of the pack because he can't really communicate with the French press to the same extent that the bilingual candidates (Rae, Iggy, Volpe and Dion) can.

    If Kennedy was a Conservative, he could survive this - Dief did terribly among Quebec delegates, as did Clark and Harper (Quebec went to Stronach). Unfortunately for him, he's a Liberal.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 10:29 PM  

  • Some of my thoughts on the results of the delegate selection thus far: Liberal Delegate Count - My Thoughts

    P.S. the Liberal election ticker is really great!

    By Blogger Harrap, at 10:34 PM  

  • "What's an ex-officio delegate?"

    An Ex-Officio delegate holds their position (in this case, as a delegate) out of ("ex") the office ("officio") which they hold.

    That is, by virtue of the office they already hold (within the Liberal Party), they become delegates. So you can say that Liberal MPs are automatically delegates, or you can say that they are invited "ex-officio".

    As for the current results, Kennedy can only be proud. Unfortunately for him, I don't think others can viably throw to him (given his lack of response in Quebec), but he now has the opportunity to play Kingmaker, should he choose to so play his cards early.

    By Blogger Paul, at 10:54 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger Paul, at 11:01 PM  

  • Harper had a decent showing in Quebec during the 2004 leadership race and was strong in virtually every region in the country, including Atlantic Canada, where people were still smarting over the "defeatism" comments.

    Kennedy basically got shut out in Quebec.

    In other words, not only do Liberals need to do better in Quebec, Kennedy did much worse than Harper did in his race.

    By Blogger Dennis (Second Thoughts), at 11:13 PM  

  • There is nothing surprising in how Kennedy did in Quebec. Quebec Liberals have said no to renewal and yes to the backroom boys and the old establishment of the Liberal Party.

    If anything, Liberals in Quebec should take a look at how strong Kennedy is across Canada and get to know the guy-take on some real grassroots renewal in the party.

    By Blogger jnpliberal, at 11:15 PM  

  • The Liberal Party needs to make gains in the West, not just in Quebec. Until we realize that, we are headed for another election defeat.

    Quebec should give Kennedy a chance.

    By Blogger jill, at 11:20 PM  

  • The thing with Kennedy was that so much of his success was due to his ground game. He wasn't in the media like Ignatieff and Dion were. Heck, Dion had a lot of face time in the English Canadian media. That Kennedy had no ground game at all in Quebec has to say something. Last time I looked, he was beat out by Volpe. Volpe!

    I have to think his poor showing in the Quebec City debate had to have turned off people in the province who might have been kicking the tires on his candidacy.

    I'm still scratching my head over his performance in that province.

    I guess I'm kind of harping on it because he was so strong almost everywhere else, especially in Ontario, where he's still neck and neck with the Ignatieff juggernaut.

    You have to think that some of the Kennedy people will look back and wonder how they could have approached Quebec differently.

    Then again, this race might have created a new bright spot on the Canadian federal landscape. And I'm sure he'll spend the next few years building his Quebec credentials and support.

    By Blogger Dennis (Second Thoughts), at 11:31 PM  

  • Let's be realistic.

    A leadership delegate selection is nowhere close to an election.

    Good organization is much more important and quickly outweighs personal popularity and electibility.

    Kennedy has good organization in most provinces other than Quebec.

    We all have to give him that, in spades.

    But to say that will translate into votes in a federal election is quite a different thing.

    Think about that.

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 12:10 AM  

  • miles, good post. hoser good post. daveberta, thank you. expect that to double by monday. is there anyone who is upset that in alberta, returning officers were instructed to let anyone on the membership list vote? Yes, that means i checked and know for a fact that people who bought memberships in september were allowed to vote and did cast many votes! they were on the list as current members as of september 29 2006, so they voted.

    By Blogger ktr, at 12:40 AM  

  • Congratulations are in order to Gerard's team in Alberta for their first place finish. And for pulling Gerard ahead of Dion by 11 delegates nationwide at 1:00 a.m. EDT.

    MississaugaPeter

    By Blogger Peter, at 1:01 AM  

  • Yes, Dion’s performance looks bad. However, it shouldn’t be a surprise when you consider the circumstances.

    Dion is a technocrat and a leadership campaign is not his forte. He has been out-organized by other campaigns that have better deals makers. You can see the difference in the endorsements and fund raising. However, his followers (like Kennedy’s) believe in the man, not just the machine (like Rae’s and MI’s).

    One reason for his poor showing in BC has been the organizer, Mark Marissen. MM has incurred the enmity of many party members because of the work done for Paul Martin. In addition, Dion is a rough diamond who needs a skilled craftsman. MM is a heavy lifter and was a poor match for Dion.

    IMO, Dion will do well enough in a general election, when the resources of the party fully support him. He will do better than Harper in an issues-laden election; as long as he keeps his cool during debates.

    What is unclear is how well he can keep his team together in a fight to the finish with the other parties. He may not have the killer instincts and necessary focus.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 2:12 AM  

  • And now, apparently, it becomes a classic prisoner's dilemma for all the non-Ignatieff candidates who could conceivably win (Kennedy/Rae/Dion). If they defect to Iggy he may well win and pay them back in kind... but if they don't, they could be the winner themselves, and if their delegates don't follow in turn, they could be completely screwed.

    (Lots more at the above link. It's a fascinating scenario.)

    By the way, anybody noticed that Warren seems to have smoothly moved into a pro-Ignatieff stance? He spun Rae's showing as somehow weak because it wasn't first, and wrote dire warnings about how Ontario "remembers".

    Not that he's as likely to be as pro-Ignatieff as he is pro-Harper these days, but only the most hamfisted Ignatieff supporter (natch) would try to spin Rae's second-place finish as anything like a failure.

    By Blogger Demosthenes, at 3:06 AM  

  • Full post to follow tomorrow. For now

    a) I'm really happy with the results

    b) GK rocked in Alberta! WE WON!

    c) It's a 3 man race to fight Iggy on the last ballot

    d) Chucker; I don't own a blackberry. It's an addiction I'd rather not get hooked on. I may be the only LPC member who doesn't own one but I'd rather not.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 5:12 AM  

  • I don't think Kennedy's poor showing in Quebec is a big worry, to be honest.

    You're telling me if he'd done killer Quebec but gotten slayed in the West that he'd suddenly be a contender, but the other way around, and he's not?

    I'm with Jill - the Liberal party needs Western votes as much as Quebec ones.

    The Liberal brand can boost Kennedy in Quebec in an election. Kennedy can boost the Liberal Party in the West in an election. Call me naive, but - what's the big problem?

    He'll also speak better French by that time, too. I'm almost sold on Kennedy by this point - these weekend's placing in Quebec doesn't un-sell me yet.

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 9:45 AM  

  • A thought on Kennedy and Quebec:

    in my riding, Quebec (includes most if not all of of Quebec City proper), Kennedy did not field a single delegate. So if even if you wanted to vote for him, it would have come to nothing.

    My guy, Ignatieff, fielded around 20, Dion around 6, Volpe around 5, Rae 3.

    I don't know if this riding was an anomaly in the province, but I was definitely surprised. After all, this is 'la capitale nationale', the second most important (in terms of size) area after Montreal. It is also considered the heart of francophone Canada. It seems like a purely organizational failure, rather than (I think) a failure of Kennedy's ideas or vision.

    By Blogger CL, at 9:56 AM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger Peter, at 10:42 AM  

  • In April, who would have thought a provincial minister with no Federal experience would receive more delegates on Super Weekend across Canada (excluding Quebec) than 8 MPs or former MPs running for the Liberal Leadership.

    Note: Outside Quebec Numbers

    Iggy - 849 (27%)
    Gerard - 688 (22%)
    Rae - 581 (18.5%)
    Dion - 384 (12%)

    The Quebec/Canadian media made it out a 3 man race and gave Gerard almost no exposure whatsoever. Hopefully now, Gerard will get the exposure he deserves.

    Please remember that Gerard started late and did not have the network in Quebec that the other candidates had prior to the July 4 new membership cut-off. Many Quebecers who would have supported Gerard have signed up as Liberals since July 4, however, they were not eligible to vote. Gerard's level of support in Quebec is no where as low as the delegate count shows or what the other 3 Top 4 candidates and their spinners would have you believe.

    No matter what spin Warren (I wish he was on our team) try's to make of Gerard's 1.7% delegate count in Quebec (no one says the numbers are not low), and his preferred two professor FINAL 2, the reality is that the other professor (Dion) and former Federal minister for 9+ years was only SECOND in Quebec and received only 10.3% of the delegates in Ontario and 12% of the delegates outside Quebec.

    I believe Gerard will be the second choice of the majority of delegates in Montreal.

    MississaugaPeter

    By Blogger Peter, at 10:46 AM  

  • The results of the weekend votes were phenomenally unsurprising..

    The top 4 finished right where most objective observers thought they would, and the rest finished right where most thought they would, too.

    By Blogger Toronto Tory, at 11:03 AM  

  • I think cl is right about Kennedy and Quebec.
    Kennedy just didn't have the organization and he received no press. Liberals in Quebec simply don't know him and that is a shame.

    Because of this, the Liberal Party has missed a real chance for renewal and now we will get recycling instead.
    When will we learn from our past.

    By Blogger jnpliberal, at 11:35 AM  

  • Kennedy's showing is remarkable when you consider that he is second in the popular vote across Canada including Quebec despite being in third (or fourth) place in delegates.

    The failure in Quebec is one of organization. If he had managed to have a team to sign up 15 votes in each riding, we would be talking about Kennedy juggernaut.

    The results also show the lack of any Liberal organization in Quebec. How many people voting in the average riding? I would guess less than in Alberta, which has been a Liberal wasteland for the last 40 years.

    By Blogger yyclaw, at 12:28 PM  

  • The fact that they even continue the leadership race is sort of a waste of money considering that the fix is in.

    I just did some quick math, with no real scientific method other than general impressions gleaned from the news.

    Here's how I see it:

    If Kennedy, Volpe, and Dryden were assumed to throw their ballots behind Rae, he would have around 1900 ballots.

    If we assume Dion, Brison, and Finlay throw theirs behind Iggy, he'd have roughly 1800.

    If the previous MP's, appointed politico's, etc... which constitute 1000 delegate votes, are added in, the win goes to Iggy.

    Even if Dion threw in with Rae, Iggy wins.

    By Blogger Joe Calgary, at 1:38 PM  

  • Joe Calgary: Your math assumes that leaders bring all thier votes. If I am not mistaken, delegates can vote for whoever the hell they want after the first ballot. Recent polling suggests that Rae's second ballot support is far bigger than Iggys. So even if Brison, Dion et al go Iggy, there delegates could go elsewhere.

    Jason Bo Green: I go away for a few weeks and when I come back you are a Kennedy supporter? WTF? The man's stance on Afghanistan alone is enough to eliminate him from any serious consideration. (Are you just doing this for attention, now that Cherniak won't let us play in his sandbox anymore?)

    By Blogger Scott in Ottawa, at 2:46 PM  

  • Ha ha - I'm only just asking about Kennedy, I'm not pimping for him.

    I'm almost sold on him, although not entirely.

    My thing is, WL, I'm just starting to get a feel that Kennedy is in for the right reasons - for passion, and not power. Even though I may disagree with what I understand is his Afghanistan stance (or should I say, his Afghanistance - whoa!), I still like his attitude. I wouldn't mind at all if he won, and I think he can bring a lot of sincerity to a party that currently lacks some.

    But I think most of the contenders have some great ideas and notions, I'd happy to see most of them win, for sure!

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 4:39 PM  

  • What's going on with Jason Cherniak? I haven't visited him since the Watson-DiNovo by-election. Are you and I personally barred???

    By Blogger Jason Bo Green, at 4:39 PM  

  • JBG: Cherniak is vetting all comments. Gone are the dizzy halcyon days of slurs, libels, and cutting satire. Daily dispatches like yours ("Cherniak, you are a fool anda cretin") are no longer permitted. Now it's just a quiet little corner of the blogoshpere where he and six or seven like-minded oafs grunt mutual affection back and forth. Truth be told, a little piece of me has died. But it must be worse for Cherniak_WTF. Poor bugger. His entire raison d'etre, gone. Just like that...

    By Blogger Scott in Ottawa, at 10:49 AM  

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