Monday, October 02, 2006

Daily Canuck

I'll have full thoughts on the weekend up soon but, for now, I did a quick guest post at the Daily Canuck explaining why the results are good news for Kennedy. Cerberus and John Lennard are also there pimping their guys.

To build on what I posted there, I'll post the first ballot results from the 1996 Ontario Liberal convention here without comment:

Gerard Kennedy 30.1%
Joseph Cordiano 21.8%
Dwight Duncan 18.1%
Dalton McGuinty 17.6%
No one else over 6%

13 Comments:

  • LOL

    eerily similar CG

    By Blogger nbpolitico, at 3:39 PM  

  • If Gerards results were spread evenly across the country then he certainly would have potential to win on the 2nd ballot. However, receiving only 1% of the Quebec vote is going to scare off many delegates.

    Likely over time he may gain popularity in Quebec, similar to Stephen Harper, however, Liberal delegates will sacrifice long term potential for short term (possible) gain.

    What is suprising is how many Quebec delegates prefer a politican who was an American resident who is pro-Iraq, anti-Kyoto, pro-missle defense -- basically everything Quebec goes against - over more left wing politicians such as Kennedy and Dion.

    By Blogger M. K. Braaten, at 4:12 PM  

  • M.K.,

    It's not surprising at all, actually. You seem to be forgetting that the Liberal Party of Quebec is headed by a former Progressive Conservative. Quebecers may tend left, but Quebec Liberals aren't exactly a majority of Quebecers these days.

    By Blogger Idealistic Pragmatist, at 4:40 PM  

  • Interesting. Of course, I'm not so keen on the idea of being in opposition until 2013... :)

    By Blogger JP, at 4:52 PM  

  • "... who is pro-Iraq, anti-Kyoto, pro-missle defense"

    Where is he anti-Kyoto? He just acknowledged, as Dion has, that we won't meet our targets. What he's done instead of spewing empty rhetoric is come up with the most comprehensive and progressive environmental and sustainable development policy in North America. He's also come out with the most progressive immigration policy among the candidates. He is also listening to Quebecers instead of telling them what to believe about themselves. Plus, like Dion and Rae he believes in Quebec's distinctiveness and that it is a nation within a country; unlike Dion he wants to do something about that; unlike Rae, he is not shifting his position because of a perceived vulnerability in the polls on the issue.

    That's why he leads in Quebec.

    By Blogger Cerberus, at 4:56 PM  

  • m. k. braaten,

    You make it seem that the 17 delegates Gerard received thus far (more than the number Ken Dryden and Scott Brison and Martha Hall Finlay received) in Quebec are a fair indication of Gerard's support in Quebec.

    Au contraire. The 17 delegates result thus far (more than some on the Gerard Team expected) reflects the poor network in Quebec Gerard had at the July 4 membership cutoff. And the minimal media attention Gerard received in Quebec.

    Since then, many Quebecers have joined Gerard's team. They all wish they could have voted for him, but they could not since they had not put in their Liberal registration forms prior to the July 4 deadline.

    Gerard's French lessons continue and his French will only improve as he courts Quebec delegates for their second ballot support. Expect his French to equal/pass Harpers by the time of the Montreal convention.

    Outside Quebec, Gerard received more delegates than any of the other leadership candidates with the exception of Iggy:

    Iggy - 849 (27%)
    Gerard - 688 (22%)
    Rae - 581 (18.5%)
    Dion - 384 (12%)

    In a few short months Gerard (with no Federal experience) has received more delegates nationwide than any of the other former Federal ministers under Chretien and/or Martin.

    Gerard will now hopefully get the attention of the Quebec media. Once Quebecers become aware that his policies are as progressive as they are, Quebecers will embrace Gerard the same way the rest of Canada has.

    Gerard commitment to rejuvenate the Liberal Party reminds me of the little engine that said "I think we can, I think we can", and then he/we did.

    He has done it before.

    He said "I think we can, I think we can" and then without government support, over 150,000 families monthly were not left hungry.

    He said "I think we can, I think we can" and 4 year contracts were signed with all Ontario's teachers' unions and 2,000,000+ children in Ontario will have 4 years of strike-free education.

    MississaugaPeter

    By Blogger Peter, at 5:05 PM  

  • CG:

    A nice comparison. I prefer the 1968 convention where Trudeau only got 31% after the first ballot.

    The difference with the 1968 contest was that Trudeau had a much bigger lead over Hellyer.

    As for the 1996 convention, unfortunately, you are comparing the first ballot of that convention to the delegate selection meetings of this one. It is widely accepted that Iggy has an even higher percentage of the 20% of delegates who are ex-officio than he does of the elected delegates. That should put him up near 35%. It will also push Kennedy up higher but not by as much. I think the best Rae could hope for after first ballot (assuming everyone stays in) is 23/24% so Iggy widens his lead also but gets much closer to 50% in the process.

    Another point is that everyone has a learned a lesson from 1996. Kennedy's people thought he had it in the bag in 1996 and did hardly any outreach to other campaigns and other delegates. Scores of Kennedy's supporters in fact were so over-confident in their victory that they didn't even vote on the last ballot but went out at the pubs.

    Rest assured that those are two mistakes that Ignatieff is not making. He has been the only candidate who has only said positive things and no negative things about the other candidates, aside from a mild (too mild) rebuke of Volpe and all of the campaigns are in regular contact with the others.

    Ted

    By Blogger Cerberus, at 5:05 PM  

  • nbpolitico,

    ...the eerie similarity is that the Federal Leadership convention will occur on the 10th anniverary of that convention...

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_Liberal_leadership_conventions#1996_leadership_convention

    ...note how the 5th ballot results were announced at 4:25 a.m.

    By Blogger Peter, at 5:14 PM  

  • Oh dear! I would like to point out an inconvenient point. That Kennedy is an advocate of ‘renewal’; i.e. get rid of the bums. The old guard won’t take kindly to it. Will the ex-officio delegates support MI and Dion, or Kennedy?

    Kennedy has had his chance. He’s done very well as the new guy. His strengths and weaknesses are apparent.

    He has one more chance to articulate his views and widen his support. How well will he do?

    By Blogger JimTan, at 6:51 PM  

  • cerberus - it's obviously a much different situation now. I just found the numbers eerily similar (and now I find out it's almost 10 years later to the day...).

    If you check out delegate count, you'll see that the ex-officio won't push Iggy up so high. To move from 30 to 35 based on 20% of the ex-officio, Ignatieff would need to be at 55% among ex-officio. Delegate Count has him projected to 30.77% on the first ballot.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 7:49 PM  

  • Here’s another inconvenient truth. Kennedy’s performance in BC is the result of a numbers game. Here are the results from the meetings in BC on Sunday.

    http://www.publiceyeonline.com/archives/001837.html#more

    Look at the summary at the bottom of the page. In terms of raw votes cast, the numbers are 895 for Rae, 394 for Dion, and only 390 for Kennedy.

    Here’s another tabulation, the five Vancouver ridings combine to yield 32 delegates for Rae, 17 for Dion, and only 11 for Kennedy. Where do the majority of Kennedy’s delegates come from? They come from the rural and small city ridings, where a smaller number of Liberal members can elect 14 delegates per riding.

    Vancouver/Kingsway cast 402 votes and Kennedy won 2 delegates. Kelowna-Lake County cast 187 votes, and Kennedy won 7 delegates.

    The truth will become clearer when the raw numbers are tabulated and released. The question is whether Kennedy’s delegates will be in Montreal. Will his delegates find the funding needed to attend? Kelowna is a provincial city of just 100,000. Seven delegates will cost at least $12,000.

    In Cariboo-Prince George, only 55 votes were cast. Kennedy will have a big chunk of the delegates.

    Joe Volpe is in the same situation.

    By Blogger JimTan, at 8:04 PM  

  • "If you check out delegate count, you'll see that the ex-officio won't push Iggy up so high. To move from 30 to 35 based on 20% of the ex-officio, Ignatieff would need to be at 55% among ex-officio."

    I was thinking the same thing.. I don't know how people are saying he'll move up to 35 based on the math on that. :)

    By Blogger Toronto Tory, at 11:40 AM  

  • Seems to me CG that this would be better news for Dion, if eirily similar history serves...

    Matt O

    By Blogger Obi, at 10:46 AM  

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