Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Nanos Celebrates

Final SES Numbers
CPC 36.4%
Lib 30.1%
NDP 17.4%
BQ 10.6%

Election Night Results
CPC 36.2%
Lib 30.2%
NDP 17.5%
BQ 10.5%


  • Hey! I said it first! ;-)

    By Blogger Tyler King, at 2:18 a.m.  

  • Tyler; Yeah, I see you beat me on Liblogs by a few minutes.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 2:36 a.m.  

  • Ummm,er, well, this here comatose five yr old got the Quebec tory totals right and that's about it.

    I was 20-odd seats off re: the CPC in Ontario, 8 in the west and 5 in the Atlantic.

    I'm also tempted to say that Paul Martin ought to be kicking himself for not having extended the campaign for another three weeks (before Christmas thru post Valentines).

    I of course called a majority on Dec. 27 (before the polls showed their tectonic shifts towards the CPC high numbers)and had only backed off to a bare majority prediction on election eve.

    Wot happened? Weeell, as some folks joked during the coverage this evening, it was a typically Canadian kind of change, sorta, conditionally, maybe, let's see what the new guys can do but meanwhile none of us sophisticated major city denizens trust simplistic sounding solutions from Yankee lovin social conservatives.

    Also, it needs to be noted, the gLibs were also hog tied by crafty War Kins and the Chretienasties who were brutally effective in undermining the traditional gLib solidarity (although I was pleased to see Valeri, Ianno and a few other turkeys get their long overdue come-uppances).

    On election eve, I posted some musings about the non pareil volatility of the undecideds and suggested that many were perhaps gLiberal sympathizers who were reluctant or chagrined to admit they were about to vote for the gLibs once again.

    That was clearly the case in Ontario and the Maritimes, whereas in BC Layton--thanks in part to Gordon Campbell's hardass polarizing antics--got the nod from many of the undecideds and switchers: the 'lend us yr. vote' appeal worked there.

    If I had to point to one prevailing factor behind the slide in Harper preference patterns from majority to minority status (ie. some 30-35 seats below what the numbers were indicating 6-7 days prior to the vote), I would say it was Harper and his handlers' decision to parade around the country with a triumpahlist smirk beseeching recalcitrant voters to get on side with the big blue machine impending gov't--all the on-the-ice vs. in-the-bleachers blather--which, ironically, worked like a charm in Quebec.

    We headed into an unwanted at this time election forced by Harper and Layton with a sense of hapless fatalism that the end result would produce an even more impotent Harper minority than Martin had presided over.

    Somewhere in the middle, many Canadians shifted and swung blue and then slid back towards a typically Canadian stand-off.

    The measure of Harper's leadership will be in producing much sounder results with lesser bench strength than the feckless Martinites possessed.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:41 a.m.  


    I think it is a great victory, particularly in Quebec. I think the Conservative Party of Canada is now a truly national party and I think this is a good thing. I don't think what Liberal cheating there was (if any) had that much effect.

    I hope that I am wrong and that there was no cheating.

    However, the Liberal Party's candidates' (alleged) behaviour - bribing a rival candidate to drop out of the race, phone call made from another Liberal's campaign office to a talk show to accuse a rival Member of Parliament of sexual assault (again, all alleged), together with stealing millions of dollars (pretty much proven as well as admitted to with the money partially refunded) of taxpayer money in a kickback scheme funelled to party coffers to fund its elections in various ridings (not disclosed which)... coupled with irregularities in Edmonton Centre (which Deputy PM McLellan won by 11 votes last election after a recount) and the pure incompetence - if not worse - of Elections Canada releasing 455,566 ballots during an election to schools across the country (aided by leftist activist groups, no less) combined with the Liberal Party's often alleged mob connections, its continuing multiple police investigations, etc. don't leave much room for confidence that the Liberal Party wouldn't cheat during an election campaign.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:35 a.m.  

  • Jebus, Chris from Victoria (and Mike Mcall),

    It's great to see you jump so far off topic in response to the posting of the final numbers.

    "Goodbye all lefties"????? Those were my first thoughts in response to huge NDP gains.

    How can one's first reaction to WINNING be blaming the Liberals for cheating? Enjoy your victory, but know that there was no Liberal cheating that had ANY effect on the outcome. Paul Martin had an effect, in that he was an awful leader incapable of inspiring even himself.

    Congrats on the win, boys. Just don't step in it too early (i.e. keep Anders, Kenny, Myron Thompson on a short leash...duct tape works best to keep them quiet).

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:36 a.m.  

  • Yahoo from Calgary! I cannot wait for the Auditor General to get access to those Canada Post, Canadian Mint, HRDC, and the 9 billion dollar trust fund books that have been off limits for her.

    It is my feeling, that there is a ton more scandals just waiting for us to learn about. yahoo!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:00 a.m.  

  • chris

    How many sad Liberals do you see today? I suspect not many.

    Enjoy the win. :)

    But we will be back.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:03 a.m.  


    I did'nt know, i've been sleeping for 5 weeks....
    how did that happen? The liberals were winning before christmas.
    THE Tories got seats in quebec? now i think your pulling my leg.


    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:42 a.m.  

  • A great victory for social conservatives - over 60% of the various candidates who support traditional marriage were elected or re-elected.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:56 a.m.  

  • "Paul Martin had an effect, in that he was an awful leader incapable of inspiring even himself."

    Paul Martin is simply a reflection of the party that elected him as leader. Don't blame Paul Martin, blame the party. The Liberals certainly have their share of nuts that they need to keep on a short leash as well but their in the senior ranks of the party.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:19 a.m.  

  • Anonymous

    That has to be perhaps the stupidest thing I have ever seen posted on this site.

    Social conservatives lost this election. The CPC does not have the numbers to repeal SSM, limit abortions or implement any part of the social conservative agenda. So what did you really win? Please, enlighten me.

    Because of the tenuous hold on government Harper can’t afford to look too conservative. He needs the support of left leaning parties to merely stay in power (much less implement a social conservative agenda). His government will most likely resemble the previous administration in policy. I have been laughing at the thought of the CPC and the NDP working together. Wonder what concessions Harper will make to the NDP, no private health care, nation daycare, SSM, no BMD, Kyoto? Should be very entertaining to watch, pass the beer and popcorn.

    The only guys that lost more in this election than the social conservatives were the Bloc.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:26 a.m.  

  • Did anyone catch Gregg try to rationalize his polling numbers? Gregg essentially said that he expected the numbers to be closer than the polls because the nature of the voters suggested varying turnout. My question is, why didn't Gregg account for these supposed weak supporters in his poll, if the goal is accuracy? SES, showed the likely voter numbers and skewed their results to eliminate soft support. Gregg's arguments basically undercut his own polling methodology.

    I also have the opinion that Gregg purposely reeled in his numbers during the final days because he knew his polling was a mess.

    By Blogger Steve V, at 11:30 a.m.  

  • Well, lastnight was interesting to say the least. I don't know, I am even more confused and hurt than before. I am a 15-yr Liberal who lives in BC, for years I couldn't get a Liberal here and now that my lawn sign says Tory, the friggin Liberal is in!!!!! and he is one of the most arrogant ones of all. Is it possible we are never going to clean house and be able to come back to the party we all love so much? This province drives me crazy.

    I was hoping we could have a referendum on staff and politicians alike. Now the loss was close enough that BC will continue to have Mark Marrissen and his showboat of a wife and merry band of crazy martinites "organizing", but without the perks of government to soften the cold reality of Martinites running this country. Help!

    A warning to all of those who think its safe to go back in the water-Martinites are now McKenner's, they will risk their own lives and young to get to the PMO again-watch where you step! I now feel pressure to find the right leadership candidate in enough time not to be labelled "disloyal" since I didn't come to the party early enough as many Chretienites and Martinites felt. God the F****** pressure of it all!

    Any advice? I am doomed to be seduced by Tory scotch and shiny loafers for the rest of my political life or will I be able to head back into the party of love so much?

    Lost in BC....

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:55 a.m.  

  • Gregg knew he was running a push poll. He asked a number of questions in order to skew the result, and then asked the question as to who people were going to vote for.

    The result was inevitable. Liberals had less support, and tories more. It helped the tories in Quebec, and was used to drive their campaign. To that extent, it worked.

    But it also backfired as it helped liberals recoupe some of the lost support when people realized where this might all end up.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:55 a.m.  

  • "...the friggin Liberal is in!!!!! and he is one of the most arrogant ones of all."

    "Most arrogant Liberal" is really saying something! Which riding are you in? I agree that this means Marrisen will be hanging on far a while - depending, I guess, on what happens with the criminal pproceedings against his pals Virk and Basi.

    By Blogger deaner, at 12:10 p.m.  

  • I'm posting this elsewhere, and I have a standing offer to anyone who takes my bet... I'll buy the beer if the Cons get a no confidence before June of 2007... don't care what city you live in, as I get to all of them... if you live in a rural community, you come to me in the closest Metro.

    First, the Liberals are desperately broke... that's not fiction, it's fact. They are going to need a minimum of 2 years to rebuild their coffers to fight another election.

    Second, they need to pick a new leader, and thats going to take at least 6 months to get to. Even after thats done, the new leader is going to need a minimum of 12 months to consolidate his position in what can only be called a divided party.

    Third, the first dumb bunny party to set off an election before mid 2007 will be absolutely crucified by the voters... that is across the spectrum and applies to all parties equally.

    I think you should anticipate several things happenning in the near future.

    First, you'll see the accountability act slammed through. Harper wants a quick victory and that is the easiest one to grab. That package will most definately include fixed elections dates. This of course excludes a non-confidence vote.

    Second, he's going to have to table a budget, and this is going to be tricker... I'm not even going to guess at this one, other than to say it's probably going to be good news for Canadians, as he's going to have to comprimise... If I had to guess, I'd say we'll see the child tax credit, GST, and to be warm and fuzzy to the Liberals, he'll have to keep the personal exemption increase.

    Third, he'll begin the process of revamping the equalization formula, especially in light of his commitments to the french.

    I suspect that somewhere in there, sooner than later so as to take advantage of the Liberals weakness as they reorganize, he'll trash the gun registry and implement some sort of new justice platform, in conjunction with the NDP.

    He'll do all this very quickly as well, because he's only going to get maybe 12 months free ride from the Liberals, and then they will begin to show strength as an opposition again.

    That's my forecast... bets anyone?

    By Blogger Joe Calgary, at 12:11 p.m.  

  • Tory minority? Fantastic news for the Liberal Party.

    And that's a fact.

    By Blogger doggerelblogger, at 12:39 p.m.  

  • mike mcall

    How many upset Liberals have you come across?

    Seems like you are happy with the results and most Liberals are also.

    Perhaps we can both agree to be happy?


    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:34 p.m.  

  • Who is this Mike McCall, who does nothing but bash and trash, and then links to non-existent blogs? He truly is typical of the Conservatives. They hide as much as possible but love to bully everyone else. Trash and Dash Party...yea, that sounds perfect for the Conservatives.

    By Blogger Echomouse, at 1:43 p.m.  

  • Echo, I'm tory, and most of us just want a decent government... and you'll find my links work. Partisanship is all fine and dandy, but I'm a little worn out from this election. Lets get some results, and Liberals should be happy, they performed exceedly well for a party that had a fuck-up a day. I think the two parties are going to be joined at the hip over the next 12 months, so we might as well be polite to each other.

    By Blogger Joe Calgary, at 1:52 p.m.  

  • Dear Deaner...he is pretty aggrogant, and am not sure if he is just living under a rock and doesn't know or care much about the party (in present state) that he stands for or was actually lying, but he seems to have no understanding of the issues (internally or externally) at hand.

    It would have been nice to see Party get cleaned out. As you know Virk and Basi will have no bearing on Mark and Christy's fate. We are stuck with it. So sad.

    BTW-live in Sea to Sky country-West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:08 p.m.  

  • The right-wing, non CPAC/SES pollsters have lost their credibility once and for all!

    By Blogger John Murney , at 7:34 p.m.  

  • actually the last poll of nanos was 31 lib. and 32 consies...acording to him the liberals were on a major comeback...which means he also got it wrong...and hes using a poll 30 lib. 36 consies thats 2 days older that his last one...again, it proves that people are been manipulated by the press, and reminds me of nixons remarks about voters....only half the people votes and half of those are...stupid...oh ya, a new name is circulating on the web for harper, bush's beaver,remember blairs?bush's poodle...lol..lol..lol..

    By Blogger Red Tory exposed, at 9:32 a.m.  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger Red Tory exposed, at 10:49 a.m.  

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