Prediction By Committee
The off-beat election pool is now closed; thanks to the 40-50 people who signed up. Be sure to pass on any stories about candidates for the major parties bringing up abortion, Belinda in TV ads, or nominees for the most vicious attack ad of the campaign.
Out of curiosity, I added up the totals of all the entries for certain questions to see what the general concensus was. Here's how this blog's readers think some key races will break down:
Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta?
71% Yes
Obviously, people have a lot of faith in Ted Haney...
Conservative support in Quebec?
62% feel they will be under 9% of the popular vote
Who will have the most vicious attack ad?
Liberals 78%, Conservatives 17%, one vote each for the NDP and BQ
The BQ is actually a pretty good prediction for this one...
Who will win Ottawa Centre?
55% say Liberals, 36% say NDP
Heddy versus Svend
73% think Svend will steal this one
Will the BQ reach 60 seats?
59% say Oui
Will Marc Garneau win?
56% say yes
Will Allan Cutler win?
46% say yes
Will Olivia Chow win?
60% say yes
Will Jean Lapierre hang on?
46% say yes
Hopefully no one will forget how they vote in this one...
Will Belinda appear in national Liberal TV ads?
55% say yes
Monte Solberg - Over/Under 75%
42% say over
Which party will win the most seats?
63% say Liberals
Most Accurate Polling Firm:
Ipsos-Reid 32%
SES 20%
Strategic Counsil 13%
Environics 10%
Decima 10%
Ekos 10% (Ekos?)
Pollara 2%
Leger 2%
Feel free to elaborate on any of the questions in the comments section bellow. There certainly didn't appear to be concensus...
Out of curiosity, I added up the totals of all the entries for certain questions to see what the general concensus was. Here's how this blog's readers think some key races will break down:
Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta?
71% Yes
Obviously, people have a lot of faith in Ted Haney...
Conservative support in Quebec?
62% feel they will be under 9% of the popular vote
Who will have the most vicious attack ad?
Liberals 78%, Conservatives 17%, one vote each for the NDP and BQ
The BQ is actually a pretty good prediction for this one...
Who will win Ottawa Centre?
55% say Liberals, 36% say NDP
Heddy versus Svend
73% think Svend will steal this one
Will the BQ reach 60 seats?
59% say Oui
Will Marc Garneau win?
56% say yes
Will Allan Cutler win?
46% say yes
Will Olivia Chow win?
60% say yes
Will Jean Lapierre hang on?
46% say yes
Hopefully no one will forget how they vote in this one...
Will Belinda appear in national Liberal TV ads?
55% say yes
Monte Solberg - Over/Under 75%
42% say over
Which party will win the most seats?
63% say Liberals
Most Accurate Polling Firm:
Ipsos-Reid 32%
SES 20%
Strategic Counsil 13%
Environics 10%
Decima 10%
Ekos 10% (Ekos?)
Pollara 2%
Leger 2%
Feel free to elaborate on any of the questions in the comments section bellow. There certainly didn't appear to be concensus...
posted by calgarygrit at
6:57 p.m.
4 Comments:
Ekos is a joke of a polling company.
By
Anonymous, at 9:12 p.m.
SES was the best last time. I'm picking them to be the best this time.
By
Michael Fox, at 12:35 p.m.
POLLARA is the only pollster in the world to have called a national election perfectly, back when they were media pollsters before they went to the dark side.
By
Anonymous, at 9:11 p.m.
Really worthwhile data, much thanks for your article.
By
www.albacete-3d.com, at 2:44 a.m.
Post a Comment
<< Home