The Off-Beat Election Pool
James Bow has the election pool. RevMod has the Gaffe pool. So I figured I'd jump in with a little game of "20 questions". You just answer the 20 questions bellow and get a score out of 100 - call it your political IQ, if you like.
No prize for the winner as of yet (except for pride of course...). You can enter your answers in the comments section bellow or via e-mail. Contest closes at midnight Friday.
1. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta (10 points)
2. Over/Under Conservative support in Quebec - 9% (5 points)
3. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad (I get to play judge and jury on this one) (5 points)
4. Which party will win Ottawa Centre? (3 points)
5. Svend Robinson or Heddy Fry? (3 points)
6. Will the Bloc crack 60 seats? (5 points)
7. Will Marc Garneau win his seat? (3 points)
8. Will Allan Cutler win his seat? (3 points)
9. Will Olivia Chow win her seat? (3 points)
10. Will Jean Lapierre keep his seat? (3 points)
11. What date will the first abortion reference be made during the campaign? (5 points for person who is closest, 4 points for second closest, etc.)
12. Number of times Stephen Harper mentions "corruption" in first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
13. Number of times Paul Martin is "clear" or "perfectly clear" during the first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
14. Which party leader will the CTV instant poll claim to have won the first English debate? (5 points)
15. Will Belinda Stronach appear in a nationally televised Liberal TV ad? (2 points)
16. Monte Solberg's popular vote over/under - 75% (5 points)
17. Which leader will get the most points in the Gaffe pool? (5 points)
18. Voter Turn-Out (5 points for actual percentage, -1 for every percentage point off by)
19. Which polling company's final poll will be the closest to the actual election results? (10 points)
20. Which party will get the most seats? (I guess it had to be asked) (10 points)
Clarification: To be clear, the abortion question refers to a candidate from one of the major parties bringing up the topic and having said comments mentioned by the mainstream media.
No prize for the winner as of yet (except for pride of course...). You can enter your answers in the comments section bellow or via e-mail. Contest closes at midnight Friday.
1. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta (10 points)
2. Over/Under Conservative support in Quebec - 9% (5 points)
3. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad (I get to play judge and jury on this one) (5 points)
4. Which party will win Ottawa Centre? (3 points)
5. Svend Robinson or Heddy Fry? (3 points)
6. Will the Bloc crack 60 seats? (5 points)
7. Will Marc Garneau win his seat? (3 points)
8. Will Allan Cutler win his seat? (3 points)
9. Will Olivia Chow win her seat? (3 points)
10. Will Jean Lapierre keep his seat? (3 points)
11. What date will the first abortion reference be made during the campaign? (5 points for person who is closest, 4 points for second closest, etc.)
12. Number of times Stephen Harper mentions "corruption" in first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
13. Number of times Paul Martin is "clear" or "perfectly clear" during the first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
14. Which party leader will the CTV instant poll claim to have won the first English debate? (5 points)
15. Will Belinda Stronach appear in a nationally televised Liberal TV ad? (2 points)
16. Monte Solberg's popular vote over/under - 75% (5 points)
17. Which leader will get the most points in the Gaffe pool? (5 points)
18. Voter Turn-Out (5 points for actual percentage, -1 for every percentage point off by)
19. Which polling company's final poll will be the closest to the actual election results? (10 points)
20. Which party will get the most seats? (I guess it had to be asked) (10 points)
Clarification: To be clear, the abortion question refers to a candidate from one of the major parties bringing up the topic and having said comments mentioned by the mainstream media.
posted by calgarygrit at
11:40 a.m.
36 Comments:
Number of times Stephen Harper mentions "accountability" in first English debate.
By
riley dog, at 11:55 a.m.
Here are some sample Questions the voter will be asking liberal candidates....
1. Do you have any GOLF COURSES, you intend to sell, using napkins as reciepts..?
2. Do you have any buddies needing loans from the taxpayer to buy or renovate any bankrupt hotels..?
3. Once posted to the Netherlands, do you intend to clean-up any money trails, with side-trips to Switzerland..?
4. Given that a Liberal bagman holds the contract,for the cafeteria at RCMP headquarters, has anyone swept said cafeteria for camera's or listening devices..?
5. Are you a socialist, Like Scott Brison, who only claims to be a liberal..?
6. Why are'nt you with the NDP..? Isn't that where your kind of policys belong..?
7. What was your cut from the still missing 40 million dollars..?
8. Where's my cut..?
9. How many more immigrants are needed to give the liberals, majority government for life..?
10. How many entitlements are you entitled to..?
There are many more similar type questions...
Hey Liberals are you starting to get the drift..?
By
Anonymous, at 12:32 p.m.
Larry Zolf on CBC says that the Liberals are heading for a majority.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/viewpoint/vp_zolf/20051129.html
By
Anonymous, at 12:41 p.m.
Sounds like fun. I've e-mailed my picks in.
-Jeff
By
Anonymous, at 12:55 p.m.
Seems to me that I would have to disqualify myself from the question regarding the gaffe scores, since I'm the only determining factor in who scores what. But you'll see an entry for the rest of the questions. For the record (and another blog did this as well), the leader heads are representitive of the parties in total - Harper's head gets to carry the bag every time one of his more mouth-breathing members opens his or her yap.
By
Don, at 1:30 p.m.
According to press reports, Harper has already made gay marriage an election issue. He likely thinks that this is a winner for him, but I predict it will be regarded as a gaffe, once the votes are counted and the coming NDP collapse is revealed.
By
Anonymous, at 2:08 p.m.
Why stop at 20?
21. Number of stories filed by Jane Taber with "unnamed senior campaign strategist" as the only source.
22. Whose head will explode first: Don Martin's or Lorne Gunter's?
23. Number of libel suits threatened or launched by Scott Reid, David Herle, and Terrie O'Leary.
By
Raymaker, at 2:47 p.m.
1. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta (10 points)
Surprisingly, yes. Oh, wait… is Kilgour still a Liberal? Well, if I only have to go for ONE, I’ll stick with yes.
2. Over/Under Conservative support in Quebec - 9% (5 points)
Over, but not by much.
3. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad (I get to play judge and jury on this one) (5 points)
NDP. (I’m going out on a limb here.)
4. Which party will win Ottawa Centre? (3 points)
Liberals.
5. Svend Robinson or Heddy Fry? (3 points)
Svend. No doubt about it.
6. Will the Bloc crack 60 seats? (5 points)
No. They may pick up a couple though.
7. Will Marc Garneau win his seat? (3 points)
Possibly, but this is a guess.
8. Will Allan Cutler win his seat? (3 points)
Not a clue.
9. Will Olivia Chow win her seat? (3 points)
No. She’ll be 0 for 2.
10. Will Jean Lapierre keep his seat? (3 points)
Not a clue.
11. What date will the first abortion reference be made during the campaign? (5 points for person who is closest, 4 points for second closest, etc.)
Gee, given it took them less than a day to make their first gay marriage statement, I’d venture to guess… December 4th.
12. Number of times Stephen Harper mentions "corruption" in first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
I’ll go with the number of your question — twelve times.
13. Number of times Paul Martin is "clear" or "perfectly clear" during the first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
Gosh, this one is tough. I’ll stick with my previous highly scientific formula and say 13 times.
14. Which party leader will the CTV instant poll claim to have won the first English debate? (5 points)
Steven Harper. Unless he has a cold and has been drugged up with NyQuil®.
15. Will Belinda Stronach appear in a nationally televised Liberal TV ad? (2 points)
Nope. Not until flying pigs soar over the frozen wastes of hell.
16. Monte Solberg's popular vote over/under - 75% (5 points)
Under. Probably 72%.
17. Which leader will get the most points in the Gaffe pool? (5 points)
Another toughie… confound you! I’ll go out on another limb and say Jack Layton.
18. Voter Turn-Out (5 points for actual percentage, -1 for every percentage point off by)
54% (Don’t ask how I arrived at that number.)
19. Which polling company's final poll will be the closest to the actual election results? (10 points)
Throws a dart at the question and…. Bam! Hits Environics. (Good employment of polling technique, eh?)
20. Which party will get the most seats? (I guess it had to be asked) (10 points)
Liberals. Of course…
By
Red Tory, at 3:02 p.m.
1. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta (10 points)
Un nooooooo.
2. Over/Under Conservative support in Quebec - 9% (5 points)
Over 11%
3. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad (I get to play judge and jury on this one) (5 points)
Liberals
4. Which party will win Ottawa Centre? (3 points)
Tories
5. Svend Robinson or Heddy Fry? (3 points)
Svend
6. Will the Bloc crack 60 seats? (5 points)
Yes
7. Will Marc Garneau win his seat? (3 points)
No
8. Will Allan Cutler win his seat? (3 points)
No
9. Will Olivia Chow win her seat? (3 points)
Yes
10. Will Jean Lapierre keep his seat? (3 points)
Yes
11. What date will the first abortion reference be made during the campaign? (5 points for person who is closest, 4 points for second closest, etc.)
Dec 2nd
12. Number of times Stephen Harper mentions "corruption" in first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
9
13. Number of times Paul Martin is "clear" or "perfectly clear" during the first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
11
14. Which party leader will the CTV instant poll claim to have won the first English debate? (5 points)
harper
15. Will Belinda Stronach appear in a nationally televised Liberal TV ad? (2 points)
Yes
16. Monte Solberg's popular vote over/under - 75% (5 points)
Right on 75%
17. Which leader will get the most points in the Gaffe pool? (5 points)
Martin
18. Voter Turn-Out (5 points for actual percentage, -1 for every percentage point off by)
56%
19. Which polling company's final poll will be the closest to the actual election results? (10 points)
Ipsos-Reid
20. Which party will get the most seats? (I guess it had to be asked) (10 points)
Tories 125
By
McGuire, at 3:47 p.m.
1. Yes (Landslide Annie)
2. Under
3. Liberals
4. Liberals
5. Heddy Fry
6. No
7. Yes
8. No
9. No
10. Yes
11. December 4th
12. 72
13. 17
14. Stephen Harper
15. Yes
16. Under
17. Harper
18. 59%
19. Ipsos-Reid
20. Liberals 157
By
Hishighness, at 4:17 p.m.
1. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta (10 points)
One. Landslide Annie toughs it out.
2. Over/Under Conservative support in Quebec - 9% (5 points)
Under. Strategic votes go to the Bloc.
3. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad (I get to play judge and jury on this one) (5 points)
Liberals will break Godwin's Law.
4. Which party will win Ottawa Centre? (3 points)
NDP. 3000 teachers on Christmas break and some of them will help, the NDP candidate is VP of the local teacher's union and a favorite son.
5. Svend Robinson or Heddy Fry? (3 points)
Oh Svend. If it wasn't for Heddy, I'd say he loses. But Svend will beat Heddy in a close one.
6. Will the Bloc crack 60 seats? (5 points)
Yes. 63 seats. Maybe 65.
7. Will Marc Garneau win his seat? (3 points)
Yes, barely.
8. Will Allan Cutler win his seat? (3 points)
No. McGuinty's family is big enough to win with their vote alone.
9. Will Olivia Chow win her seat? (3 points)
Nope.
10. Will Jean Lapierre keep his seat? (3 points)
Nope. Hahaha.
11. What date will the first abortion reference be made during the campaign? (5 points for person who is closest, 4 points for second closest, etc.)
January 6, in Alberta, by Rob Anders.
12. Number of times Stephen Harper mentions "corruption" in first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
11 times.
13. Number of times Paul Martin is "clear" or "perfectly clear" during the first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
Six.
14. Which party leader will the CTV instant poll claim to have won the first English debate? (5 points)
Jack Layton.
15. Will Belinda Stronach appear in a nationally televised Liberal TV ad? (2 points)
That would go in the "Gaffe" file,
so no.
16. Monte Solberg's popular vote over/under - 75% (5 points)
Over. 77%
17. Which leader will get the most points in the Gaffe pool? (5 points)
Paul Martin (Thanks to Scott Feschuk)
18. Voter Turn-Out (5 points for actual percentage, -1 for every percentage point off by)
63%
19. Which polling company's final poll will be the closest to the actual election results? (10 points)
Ipsos Reid.
20. Which party will get the most seats? (I guess it had to be asked) (10 points)
Conservative, barely, more thanks to the Bloc and the NDP gains than themselves.
By
Michael, at 4:31 p.m.
1. YES
2. UNDER
3. LIBERAL
4. LIBERAL
5. FRY
6. NO
7. YES
8. NO
9. NO
10. YES
11. JANUARY 10
12. 25
13. 15
14. DUCEPPE
15. YES
16. UNDER
17. HARPER
18. 61%
19. SES
20. LIBERAL
By
Jason Cherniak, at 4:40 p.m.
1. Yes. Annie will win.
2. Under (CPC under 9%)
3. The Liberal Party (most vicious ad)
4. Liberals (Ottawa Center)
5. Svend will defeat Hedy.
6. Yes (BQ will get 60 or more)
7. No (Garneau will not win)
8. No (Cutler will lose)
9. Yes (Chow will win)
10. No (Lapierre will lose)
11. Dec. 1 ('abortion')
12. 12 ('corruption')
13. 6 ('clear'/etc.)
14. Stephen Harper (win debate)
15. Yes (Stronach in ad)
16. Under (Monte under 75%)
17. Harper (gaffe pool)
18. 53%
19. Decima
20. Liberals
By
buckets, at 4:54 p.m.
Check out this link -
You only get to answer one question out of two...
http://cp.parl.gc.ca/survey/survey.asp?ID=17
By
Anonymous, at 5:07 p.m.
Yes
Under, more like 7
The Liberals except voters might like it cuz it will be the TRUTH
Liberals in a walk
Hedy!
Hell no, they will lose them
Oh hell yeah!
NO
LOL NO
Yes more easily than some other ministers
By the leaders…I would say right after SSM so probably Dec.5th
15
the whole time LOL (less than he will say cher canadien cheres canadiennes) ok ill guess 10
Tories will win the poll Martin will win the debate
Yes
Under
Layton
58%
depends how many decided voters there are my guess Pollara
Liberals
By
Anthony, at 6:23 p.m.
1. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta (10 points)
Green Party splits off environmentalist Conservatives in Calgary for 1 seat downtown and McClellan wins with lowest voter turnout anywhere ever.
2. Over/Under Conservative support in Quebec - 9% (5 points)
Over 13% - Chretien supporters have to go somewhere!
3. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad (I get to play judge and jury on this one) (5 points)
Green Party
4. Which party will win Ottawa Centre? (3 points)
Marajuana Party - 455 votes in last election dude...
5. Svend Robinson or Heddy Fry? (3 points)
Svend the Hammer takes Out Heddy Cross Burning Fry
6. Will the Bloc crack 60 seats? (5 points)
No Boisclair "crack" jokes yet? Okay then yes, 61
7. Will Marc Garneau win his seat? (3 points)
Better chance of going to the moon - so no.
8. Will Allan Cutler win his seat? (3 points)
Yes, but will then be fired.
9. Will Olivia Chow win her seat? (3 points)
3rd time's a charm. Yep.
10. Will Jean Lapierre keep his seat? (3 points)
For the love of God noooooooooo.
11. What date will the first abortion reference be made during the campaign? (5 points for person who is closest, 4 points for second closest, etc.)
What day is today?
12. Number of times Stephen Harper mentions "corruption" in first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
22
13. Number of times Paul Martin is "clear" or "perfectly clear" during the first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
Depends on the stutter - 10?
14. Which party leader will the CTV instant poll claim to have won the first English debate? (5 points)
Duceppe
15. Will Belinda Stronach appear in a nationally televised Liberal TV ad? (2 points)
Pleeeeeeeeeeeeesee....
16. Monte Solberg's popular vote over/under - 75% (5 points)
The hair dying thing could hurt - -5% (70%)
17. Which leader will get the most points in the Gaffe pool? (5 points)
Go Harps!
18. Voter Turn-Out (5 points for actual percentage, -1 for every percentage point off by)
Bad weather is blamed for low-turnout (whatever) 52%
19. Which polling company's final poll will be the closest to the actual election results? (10 points)
Tim Hortons
20. Which party will get the most seats? (I guess it had to be asked) (10 points)
Tories 106
By
Anonymous, at 6:31 p.m.
1. Yes - Landslide Annie.
2. Over
3. Liberals, without a doubt
4. Liberal
5. Svend!
6. No - 59.
7. No
8. Yes
9. Yes. By a landslide of <100 votes.
10. Yes
11. Dec 3
12. 10
13. 15
14. Harper
15. NO.
16. Just Under (73)
17. Liberals, barely.
18. 52%
19. Ipsos-Reid
20. Conservatives
By
Anonymous, at 8:30 p.m.
SES will do the rolling polls again. They've doubled their sample size too.
By
calgarygrit, at 8:44 p.m.
1- no
2- +8
3- Liberal
4- NDP
5- Svend
6- Yes 63 sieges
7- No
8- Yes by 780 votes
9- No
10- No
11- December 6th
12- 19 times
13- 9 times
14- Harper
15- Yes
16- 77%
17- Martin
18- 53%
19- Strategic
20- Conservatives
By
Dorionhawk, at 9:55 p.m.
Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta (10 points)
No, Anne will lose by 3000
2. Over/Under Conservative support in Quebec - 9% (5 points)
Under, just barely
3. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad (I get to play judge and jury on this one) (5 points)
Liberals, easy pick
4. Which party will win Ottawa Centre? (3 points)
NDP, RM never wins
5. Svend Robinson or Heddy Fry? (3 points)
Hedy in a tight race
6. Will the Bloc crack 60 seats? (5 points)
No
7. Will Marc Garneau win his seat? (3 points)
Yes
8. Will Allan Cutler win his seat? (3 points)
No
9. Will Olivia Chow win her seat? (3 points)
Yes (I hope so, Ianno needs to go)
10. Will Jean Lapierre keep his seat? (3 points)
Yes
11. What date will the first abortion reference be made during the campaign? (5 points for person who is closest, 4 points for second closest, etc.)
December 18th
12. Number of times Stephen Harper mentions "corruption" in first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
23 times
13. Number of times Paul Martin is "clear" or "perfectly clear" during the first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
14 times
14. Which party leader will the CTV instant poll claim to have won the first English debate? (5 points)
Stephen Harper
15. Will Belinda Stronach appear in a nationally televised Liberal TV ad? (2 points)
No
16. Monte Solberg's popular vote over/under - 75% (5 points)
Over
17. Which leader will get the most points in the Gaffe pool? (5 points)
With CG picking, I'll go with Martin, even though I think Harper is the correct answer
18. Voter Turn-Out (5 points for actual percentage, -1 for every percentage point off by)
63%
19. Which polling company's final poll will be the closest to the actual election results? (10 points)
SES
20. Which party will get the most seats? (I guess it had to be asked) (10 points)
Conservatives
Saskatchewan Grit
By
Anonymous, at 11:50 p.m.
1. No
2. Over
3. Liberals
4. Liberal
5. Svend Robinson
6. No
7. Yes
8. No
9. Yes
10. Yes
11. December 2
12. 8
13. 14
14. Gilles Duceppe
15. Yes
16. Under
17. Paul Martin
18. 64%
19. SES Research
20. Conservatives
- Mustafa Hijri
By
Anonymous, at 2:27 a.m.
1. Yes. Better question: "Will the Liberals crack 40% in any other seat than Edmonton Centre?"
2. Over. About 15%
3. BQ
4. Liberal (despite national campaign)
5. Hedy
6. Yes
7. No. Unless I'm also wrong about question 6. Altenative Question: Will the BQ win seats in the National Capital Region? Answer: Yes.
8. No.
9. No. Alternative question: Will Layton quit if the NDP doesn't have the balance of power and Olivia doesn't win?
10. No. Senator LaPierre has a certain ring to it.
11. December 21
12. 30
13. 20
14. Duceppe
15. No
16. Under. Combined NDP/Liberal/Green vote should top 25%.
17. Martin. Still don't have candidates in many unwinnable ridings. Down to picking freaks who will give Conservative MPs a run for their money on dumbass statements.
18. 62%
19. Ekos
20. Conservatives and Liberals tied at 105 after BC fails to decide the election.
By
Anonymous, at 9:01 a.m.
How many of you commenting on Allan Cutler's chances know anything about Ottawa South? I live in Ottawa South and McGuiinty has benn an invisible MP. He will lose.
By
Anonymous, at 10:00 a.m.
1. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta (10 points)
No.
2. Over/Under Conservative support in Quebec - 9% (5 points)
Over.
3. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad (I get to play judge and jury on this one) (5 points)
Conservatives
4. Which party will win Ottawa Centre? (3 points)
NDP
5. Svend Robinson or Heddy Fry? (3 points)
Svend
6. Will the Bloc crack 60 seats? (5 points)
Yes
7. Will Marc Garneau win his seat? (3 points)
No
8. Will Allan Cutler win his seat? (3 points)
Yes
9. Will Olivia Chow win her seat? (3 points)
No
10. Will Jean Lapierre keep his seat? (3 points)
No
11. What date will the first abortion reference be made during the campaign? (5 points for person who is closest, 4 points for second closest, etc.)
By the media - yesterday.
By the Liberals - tomorrow
By the Conservatives - won't
By the NDP - won't
By the Bloc - won't
12. Number of times Stephen Harper mentions "corruption" in first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
10
13. Number of times Paul Martin is "clear" or "perfectly clear" during the first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
5
He's improved.
14. Which party leader will the CTV instant poll claim to have won the first English debate? (5 points)
Harper
15. Will Belinda Stronach appear in a nationally televised Liberal TV ad? (2 points)
No
16. Monte Solberg's popular vote over/under - 75% (5 points)
Under.
17. Which leader will get the most points in the Gaffe pool? (5 points)
Harper because Don's running it. Damn socialist!
18. Voter Turn-Out (5 points for actual percentage, -1 for every percentage point off by)
59%
19. Which polling company's final poll will be the closest to the actual election results? (10 points)
Ipsos-Reid
20. Which party will get the most seats? (I guess it had to be asked) (10 points)
The Tories baby!
By
Don, at 12:43 p.m.
1. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta (10 points)
Yes
2. Over/Under Conservative support in Quebec - 9% (5 points)
Over. A little bit over.
3. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad (I get to play judge and jury on this one) (5 points)
Liberals
4. Which party will win Ottawa Centre? (3 points)
Liberals
5. Svend Robinson or Heddy Fry? (3 points)
Svend
6. Will the Bloc crack 60 seats? (5 points)
No
7. Will Marc Garneau win his seat? (3 points)
Yes
8. Will Allan Cutler win his seat? (3 points)
Yes
9. Will Olivia Chow win her seat? (3 points)
Yes
10. Will Jean Lapierre keep his seat? (3 points)
Yes
11. What date will the first abortion reference be made during the campaign? (5 points for person who is closest, 4 points for second closest, etc.)
Dec. 9
12. Number of times Stephen Harper mentions "corruption" in first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
15
13. Number of times Paul Martin is "clear" or "perfectly clear" during the first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
10
14. Which party leader will the CTV instant poll claim to have won the first English debate? (5 points)
NDP
15. Will Belinda Stronach appear in a nationally televised Liberal TV ad? (2 points)
Yes
16. Monte Solberg's popular vote over/under - 75% (5 points)
Under
17. Which leader will get the most points in the Gaffe pool? (5 points)
Harper
18. Voter Turn-Out (5 points for actual percentage, -1 for every percentage point off by)
60%
19. Which polling company's final poll will be the closest to the actual election results? (10 points)
Ipsos
20. Which party will get the most seats? (I guess it had to be asked) (10 points)
Liberals
-- djc360
By
Anonymous, at 3:46 p.m.
1. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta (10 points)
I'll given Landslide Annie the benefit of the doubt, but it'll probably involve a recount.
2. Over/Under Conservative support in Quebec - 9% (5 points)
Under, split even between the Liberals and the BQ.
3. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad (I get to play judge and jury on this one) (5 points)
Conservatives, unless the Liberals are in desperation territory come Jan 16.
4. Which party will win Ottawa Centre? (3 points)
Liberal gain. Shame to see Ed go.
5. Svend Robinson or Heddy Fry? (3 points)
Svend on a pity vote.
6. Will the Bloc crack 60 seats? (5 points)
Nope. 55 at best.
7. Will Marc Garneau win his seat? (3 points)
My sources say no. But the Magic 8-Ball's been acting up of late.
8. Will Allan Cutler win his seat? (3 points)
Nope.
9. Will Olivia Chow win her seat? (3 points)
Third time's a charm. Yep.
10. Will Jean Lapierre keep his seat? (3 points)
Squeaker but yes.
11. What date will the first abortion reference be made during the campaign? (5 points for person who is closest, 4 points for second closest, etc.)
December 24th, in some spiked eggnog-inspired rant by a frustrated Conservative candidate to be named later. Harper will express his compassionate conservative side by sending candidate on a fact-finding mission to Guantanamo.
12. Number of times Stephen Harper mentions "corruption" in first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
If he's smart, 4. If he's a pelutant little snot, 20. If he's secretly wearing his too-tight leather chaps from the Stampede under the suit, about 50. I'm guessing unlucky 13.
13. Number of times Paul Martin is "clear" or "perfectly clear" during the first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
One for every mention of corruption. So, 13.
14. Which party leader will the CTV instant poll claim to have won the first English debate? (5 points)
Jim Harris by a landslide.
Just kidding. Harper, although objectively, the answer will be Duceppe again.
15. Will Belinda Stronach appear in a nationally televised Liberal TV ad? (2 points)
Yes. Would be much more powerful with Scott Brison in the mix too.
16. Monte Solberg's popular vote over/under - 75% (5 points)
That weasel gets 75%? Crap. Under, but not by much.
17. Which leader will get the most points in the Gaffe pool? (5 points)
Harper's off to a good start.
18. Voter Turn-Out (5 points for actual percentage, -1 for every percentage point off by)
58.5%
19. Which polling company's final poll will be the closest to the actual election results? (10 points)
Ekos.
20. Which party will get the most seats? (I guess it had to be asked) (10 points)
Liberals will get the plurality but a bit less, NDP will pick those up and a couple of surprises to allow for a proper coalition, the Bloc will actually slide a bit unexpectedly but remain strong, the Greens will end up in the 6-7% range and win a seat or two the next time, and Harper will be replaced by Peter MacKay by summer, and start dating Paris Hilton just to piss Belinda off.
By
Anonymous, at 4:13 p.m.
1) Yep: 1 seat.
2) Under (8.2%).
3) Libs will have the first attack ad, the CPC will follow, then the Liberals will go full force. Liberals.
4) Liberals.
5) Svend.
6) No: 49 seats.
7) Not yet.
8) Who? No.
9) Yes, thanks to Jack.
10) No, Lapierre's gone.
11) Late late: Abortion's first mentioned December 21st.
12) Fifteen "corruption"s from Harper.
13) Eighteen "clear"s from Martin.
14) The people will claim Harper won the first debate - Layton, if he keeps his cool, but I don't think he will.
15) All Belinda, all the time.
16) Under (70%)
17) Harper, given his start...
18) Voter turnout, 52%
19) SES.
20) Liberals win. Another, slightly larger, minority.
By
Thursday, at 2:24 a.m.
Olivia Chow will win based on Ianno's cheap duplicity on the island airport issue which has pissed a lot of people off!
By
Anonymous, at 8:22 a.m.
1. Yes
2. Under
3. LPC
4. LPC. Richard Mahoney in Ottawa Center. www.richardmahoney.com
5. Fry
6. Yes.
7. Yes.
8. No.
9. No
10. Yes, but I hope not.
11. January 14th.
12. 8
13. 0
14. Duceppe
15. Yes, but in a cameo or secondary role only.
16. Over.
17. Harper
18. 61% nationally. 70% in Ottawa-Center.
19. Ipsos.
20. LPC
By
James Bowie, at 11:42 a.m.
Fun pool, thanks.
1. No. Goodbye Annie
2. Under
3. Liberals
4. Liberals
5. Svend
6. Yes
7. No
8. Yes
9. Yes
10. No
11. Jan 5
12. 11 times
13. 5 times
14. Harper
15. No
16. Under
17. Harper
18. 58%
19. SES
20. Conservatives
By
Anonymous, at 11:53 a.m.
1.) Yes
2.) Under
3.) Liberals
4.) NDP
5.) Sven
6.) No
7.) Yes
8.) Yes
9.) No
10.) No
11.) Dec 4
12.) 24
13.) 22
14.) Paul Martin
15.) No
16.) Under
17.) Paul Martin
18.) 59%
19.) Leger
20.) Liberals
David Ashton
Cloverdale, BC
da_ashton@yahoo.ca
By
Ned Noodle, at 2:10 p.m.
Good luck with figuring out the winner of this...it's going to be such a pain to figure out the results! Anyway...
1. Will the Liberals win a seat in Alberta?
Yes, one.
2. Over/Under Conservative support in Quebec - 9% (5 points)
Over, but only barely.
3. Which party will run the most vicious attack ad (I get to play judge and jury on this one) (5 points)
Liberals, but Jason Kenney will say something even dumber as part of Rapid Response.
4. Which party will win Ottawa Centre? (3 points)
NDP
5. Svend Robinson or Heddy Fry? (3 points)
Robinson.
6. Will the Bloc crack 60 seats? (5 points)
Yes.
7. Will Marc Garneau win his seat? (3 points)
Yes.
8. Will Allan Cutler win his seat? (3 points)
No.
9. Will Olivia Chow win her seat? (3 points)
Yes
10. Will Jean Lapierre keep his seat? (3 points)
No
11. What date will the first abortion reference be made during the campaign? (5 points for person who is closest, 4 points for second closest, etc.)
January 4th.
12. Number of times Stephen Harper mentions "corruption" in first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
12
13. Number of times Paul Martin is "clear" or "perfectly clear" during the first English debate (5 points for correct guess, minus 1 for every one away you are)
7
14. Which party leader will the CTV instant poll claim to have won the first English debate? (5 points)
If it's an Internet poll, it'll be a dead heat between Martin and Harper.
15. Will Belinda Stronach appear in a nationally televised Liberal TV ad? (2 points)
No
16. Monte Solberg's popular vote over/under - 75% (5 points)
Under
17. Which leader will get the most points in the Gaffe pool? (5 points)
Harper
18. Voter Turn-Out (5 points for actual percentage, -1 for every percentage point off by)
57%
19. Which polling company's final poll will be the closest to the actual election results? (10 points)
Environics
20. Which party will get the most seats? (I guess it had to be asked) (10 points)
Liberals in a squeaker.
By
Anonymous, at 3:14 p.m.
1. Yes. Landslide Annie
2. Under
3. Liberals
4. Liberals
5. Svend
6. No
7. Yes
8. No
9. No
10. Yes
11. January 4, 2006
12. 35
13. 12
14. Harper
15. No, although she is hot.
16. Over.
17. Duceppe
18. 72.5%
19. Ispos
20. Liberals, baby!
By
Anonymous, at 5:13 p.m.
1. No Liberal seats in Alberta;
2. CPC support under 9% in Quebec;
3. Liberals to run the most vicious attack ad;
4. NDP to win Ottawa Center;
5. Svend over Hedy;
6. Bloc over 60 seats;
7. Garneau to lose
8. Cutler to win;
9. Chow to win;
10.Lapierre to win;
11. first abortion reference on December 14th;
12. 9 mentions of corruption by Harper in the first debate;
13. Martin to be "clear" 4 times in the first debate;
14. Layton seen as the instant poll winner;
15. No national Belinda ads;
16. Solberg over 75%;
17. Harper to win the gaffe poll;
18. Turnout 59%;
19. Decima as the most accurate final poll;
20. Conservatives (gulp) to win the most seats.
By
J. A. MacDuff, at 9:41 a.m.
1. Yes
2. Under
3. Liberals
4. NDP
5. Svend
6. Yes
7. Yes
8. Yes
9. Yes
10. No
11. Jan 6
12. 15
13. 8
14. Harper
15. Yes
16. Over
17. Harper
18. 60%
19. SES
20. Conservatives
By
Declan, at 7:27 p.m.
Contest is now closed
By
calgarygrit, at 1:47 p.m.
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