Thursday, December 01, 2005

Prediction Time

I entered the James Bow election pool today with the following predictions (as an aside, be sure to enter the Off-Beat Election Pool if you haven't already done so!):

Lib 109
CPC 109
BQ 59
NDP 31

I've been going back and forth over who would come out on top for quite some time now so I just decided to go with a dead heat. If nothing else, it will make for an interesting post-election period as everyone scrambles to sort things out.

Here's a region-by-region breakdown of how I got at these numbers:

I would be absolutely shocked if anything changes here. I don't expect more than 1 or 2 seats to switch hands in the four Maritime provinces unless one of the party leaders declares he hates Great Big Sea.

The Tories and Dippers don't have a chance. A lot of people think there's a glass ceilling on the number of seats the BQ can win but consider the 1988 election results in Quebec:

PC 52.7% 63 seats
Lib 30.3% 12 seats
NDP 14% 0 seats

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but if the BQ can somehow pull off a 53-30 edge in the popular vote, there's no reason they can't take over 60 seats. I don't think they'll be quite that dominant, but the BQ is gaining seats this election regardless of how the campaign goes. Gilles Duceppe should just fly to Florida and come back for election day. We all know there are plenty of Quebecers down there this time of the year anyways.

The West
I don't expect major changes on the Prairies. The NDP should pick up a seat or two in Saskatchewan and I think Anne's luck may have finally run out in Alberta. The real question mark is BC, so I'm sure we'll all be up late on election night. I'm basing my predictions on NDP gains in BC, but it could really break any number of ways.

Excluding Ontario, I've got the NDP making some gains at the expense of the Tories out West, and the BQ making gains at the expense of the Liberals in Quebec. So, the Liberals enter Ontario with their current 30 seat head start on the Tories. I'm going to guess that Ontario finally takes a (small) chance on Harper this campaign and 12 or 15 seats swing his way. Coupled with Liberal loses and a few NDP gains, that leaves us with my above prediction.

PS: Ethel's going down in the NWT!


  • I think Lawrence Cannon is going to win in Quebec.

    By Blogger Michael Fox, at 10:24 a.m.  

  • There are only three maritime provinces. NL is an ATLANTIC province, but not a MARITIME province.

    If you think this doesn't matter, recall how Albertans feel when Central Canadians make a mistake about some regional this or that in the prairies.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:22 a.m.  

  • You're predicting a tie. That would be a hooplah.

    By Blogger James Bowie, at 11:45 a.m.  

  • The dance of the seven veils continues. Harps just brought out his GST cut and by all accounts it's going to be a winner with joe average who may not speak economese.

    If the Conservatives can sustain this chinese torture of releasing their platform drip by drip then they will start to dictate the terms of the election on a daily basis - something which puts the other parties on the back foot.

    Harps and the Conservatives are starting to look like they have a very cunning plan - which is more than you can say about the Liberals at this point.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:46 a.m.  

  • CPC 128
    Lib 100
    BQ 60
    NDP 20

    -Jeff C.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:49 a.m.  

  • Anyone who has ever met Lawrence Cannon or had the displeasure of being in his proximity when he was on the conseil de la mairie de Hull/Gatineau (and later head of the STO) knows that he has no chance whatsoever. Especially not in the Outaouais region, where he is mocked and despised. It's a local thing.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:06 p.m.  

  • I should add that, although I respect in some manner the Conservatives, they've gone out on a lim,b and picked an absolute fool to lead their Quebec campaign. One wonders whether they even bothered to meet Monsieur Cannon before enlisting him.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:09 p.m.  

  • I think I agree with you about Ethel. The CPCs are running a native candidate, which will cut into Ethel's meagre lead, and Dennis Bevington was way popular as mayor of fort smith.

    Too bad... I had such high hopes for her. She started off a second row MP... what has she done lately?

    By Blogger Boreal, at 1:23 p.m.  

  • Wow. You're prediction just introduced me to a concept that I had not considered. A coalition minority government. A coalition of the Liberals and the NDP that cumulatively create the largest voting bloc, but still don't constitute a majority of the seats.

    I mean, no one is seriously suggesting that Harper and Gilles are going to run the country, are they?


    By Blogger Gauntlet, at 1:27 p.m.  

  • Conservative: 160
    Libs: 60
    BQ: 60
    NDP: 28


    By Blogger Jim, at 3:52 p.m.  

  • Economists dump on Harper's GST-lowering plan

    When I first saw this article title, I thought the CBC was just going to quote some policy wonks and Liberal economists-cum-MPs. As it turns out, the C.D. Howe and Fraser Institutes are hammering on Harper! Yikes!

    "Jason Clemens, an economist with the Fraser Institute, said he also opposes reducing the GST."

    Mind you, he's just an economist. Maybe all the others at Fraser think it's a great idea.

    But if Canada's big right-wing thinktanks are coming down on Harper... wow.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:38 p.m.  

  • Ballsy call there. 1972 redux. Not that I'm saying you're wrong. Still it should make for some interesting discussion at Rideau Hall.

    One question though. How are you calling Churchill? In my prediction I gave it to Bev Dejarlais. She should keep a fair bit of her personal vote and you know all the Tories will be voting for her. That being the case, I expect that Keeper and Ashton will cancel each other out, letting Bev retain her seat. Would that outcome change your tally?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:43 p.m.  

  • Ashton is a prime example of why I have a hard time voting NDP: I want qualified people, not recent University grads. I want someone with their feet on the ground and their head not trapped in the clouds.

    That said, I'm voting NDP this time. :P (But my NDP candidate is a very sucessful environmental lawyer, so I can respect that.)

    By Blogger Jim, at 6:56 p.m.  

  • CON 111
    LIB 103
    BQ 60
    NDP 34

    You read it here first.

    Great Blog BTW. For a Lib, I mean.

    By Blogger A. Carlton Sallet, at 9:37 a.m.  

  • This is unpredictable every week the survey change.

    By Anonymous cowboy boot, at 10:17 a.m.  

  • This can't work in reality, that is exactly what I suppose.

    By Anonymous, at 2:58 a.m.  

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