Friday, December 02, 2005

It's Baaaaaack!

It's been called crack for political junkies. And it's back. SES's daily polling is up and running again, with twice the sample size from last year. Here are their first results:

LIB - 37% (+3)
CP - 29% (+1)
NDP - 15% (-5)
BQ - 14% (NC)
GP - 5% (+1)

The first few days of the campaign have not been kind of Jack Layton as he continues to get more and more marginalized. The guy has been absolutely invisible; I keep half expecting him to show up campaign rallies wearing a red and white striped shirt and hat.


  • So, the exact same results as the 2004 election.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:04 PM  

  • And the Buzz Hargrove announcement today isn't exactly going to help him much.


    By Blogger Cerberus, at 5:18 PM  

  • Come on Harper!!!! Pull ahead damn it. The Liberals need you.

    Exactly like 2004.

    By Anonymous blah, at 5:19 PM  

  • Jack is having a hard time it's true. And with friends like Buzz Hargrove it will only get worse.

    But you know Martin should be careful not to trump up this endorsement to much.

    As heard on CBC Toronto Nov 29:

    Asked how his union's membership was going to vote in Quebec, Hargrove replied that they were mostly going to vote for the Bloc. "And I can't blame them," he said, given the nauseating way the Liberals had tried to buy their votes with measly sponsorships. In fact, (said Buzz), "If I lived in Quebec I'd have a hard time not voting for the Bloc myself."

    By Blogger thoughT particleS, at 5:20 PM  

  • Hey thought particles,

    if you're going to crib my transcriptions of the CBC, at least give the This Magazine blog some credit.
    Otherwise, I agree entirely. Of course Buzz wants the Libs to win -- Liberals love handing out the pork to the car manufacturers.

    Great blog, Calgary Grit.

    By Anonymous andrew, at 5:38 PM  

  • blah: be careful what you wish for. harper moves to 35 and the liberals need to pull vote from Harper.

    2004 the ndp pulled the liberals behind harper and the liberals only needed to pull vote from layton.

    fighting the last war is always stupid. strategic counsel asked who has a hidden agenda and got: Liberals 33 Conservatives 25. enjoy the ride.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 5:38 PM  

  • Andrew at This Magazine blog deserves every bit of credit for the Hargrove quote.

    Sorry guy. Not the way things should be done.

    By Blogger thoughT particleS, at 5:48 PM  

  • anonymous

    Any votes the CPC pulls from the LPC were soft votes anyways, if the Libs are leading those folk most likely won't show up to the booth for the Liberals.

    Now the voters the Libs steal from the NDP, those are scared voters :). They show up at the booth.

    By Anonymous blah, at 5:55 PM  

  • CG:

    8 weeks is an eternity in an election campagin here... There's plenty of time for Layton to get back in the game - if indeed he was ever out of it to begin with. One poll doesnt make a trend here.

    By Blogger Scott Tribe, at 6:21 PM  

  • blah:

    its fine by me if you root for a cpc rise. but if they move close to 35 it's a whole new ballgame.

    there is never a shortage of soft voters to peel out of any party.

    last year a succesful ndp campaign peeled soft votes from the liberals. fear of a conservative gov't drove them back.

    if the conservatives successfully peel soft votes from the liberals, what's going to pull them back? fear of the ndp?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:42 PM  


    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:53 PM  

  • anon 4:53,

    how much soft liberal vote did buzz just send to the conservatives?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:55 PM  

  • Harper's giving us serious policy announcements, while Martin is trash talking and engaging in backroom deals.

    Martin's looking sleazier by the day.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:27 PM  

  • and yet leads 37% -29%...

    By Anonymous Bgwest, at 10:35 PM  

  • Good analysis - I am sort of astonished about the NDP performance so far. Their bizarre stance on the Conservative GST cut seemed to throw away a huge opportunity, leaving them with essentially absolutely nothing to say on a potentially defining issue.

    The Hargrove thing today was a kick in the teeth. They have time, but I could not have imagined a worse start.

    By Blogger OttawaCon, at 12:05 AM  

  • Seems likely that the NDP has far less money than other parties, and is waiting for later in the campaign to make big announcements or expensive ad buys. Though I'm not sure that explains their current invisibility.

    By Anonymous dru, at 12:09 AM  

  • The Canadian Election: Day Four

    Healthcare was the main issue at the forefront of today's campaign. Stephen Harper again seized the iniative by promising that a Conservative government would ensure shorter, guaranteed waits for health care.Harper also committed that a Conservative government would ensure that reduced waiting times for health-care services are enforced. Harper also moved to outflank his critics by addressing the issue of two-tier healthcare. "There will be no private, parallel system," Harper promised. Harper gave tangible examples of acceptable wait times.

    The leaders of the other parties were again caught reacted to Harper's initiative with Martin and Layton stating they didn't believe the Conservatives would protect healthcare. Duceppe intervened to stress provincial autonomy.

    The other major development of the day was the qualified endorsement of the Liberals by Buzz Hargrove, President of the Canadian Automotive Workers Union, which has traditionally supported the NDP. Hargrove encouraged his members to vote Liberal in ridings where it appeared the NDP didmn't have a chance. He also had words of praise for Martin's Liberal minority government. This came a day after Jack Layton campaigned in auto industry country in southern Ontario. Layton had promised help to strengthen the Canadian auto industry in the face of closures by GM. Hargrove swung his 2 by 4 after Layton was on the Prairies campaigning to win seats in ridings where the Conservatives and the NDP are running neck and neck. With friends like Hargrove, Layton doesn't need any enemies. Both in southern Ontario and in Saskatchewan, Layton stressed that in close seats a vote for the Liberals is in effect a vote for the Conservatives.

    A new Strategic Counsel poll shows the Liberals leading the Conservatives 35% to 30%, unchanged from their poll earlier in the week. More interesting, however, was that part of the poll which showed that, in the early days of the campaign, voters found Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's messages more credible than those of Prime Minister Paul Martin.

    66 per cent of respondents said they found Harper's message that the election is about the need for change "very" or "somewhat" believable.That contrasted with 44 per cent who found Martin's message about the strength of the Canadian economy "very" or "somewhat" believable.

    Overall the Consrvatives have had a good first week, with Harper setting the agenda. Martin, on the other hand,seems to have blown his hand by announcing all the pre-election goodies which were widely perceived as an attempt to buy voters.For the most part he was caught reacting to Harper's daily announcements while praising the Liberal economic record.

    Layton has yet to find his footing and seize the intiative. The Hargrove announcement today is more of a symbolic blow than one with real impact.

    By Blogger cardinal47, at 12:52 AM  

  • Unless one party opens up sustained a double-digit lead by Chrristmas, every poll before 2006 will be meaningless.

    But on the other hand, every daily poll will validate someone's point of view (i.e. "This poll proves what I've been saying all along, which is that...), so that will be nice.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:24 AM  

  • "And yet he leads 37 - 29%"

    I'll be very surprised to see that spread continue to election day.

    But if it does, and we elect this unprincipled leader and corrupt party, I will be ashamed as a Canadian. And after 12 years of this, seriously consider supporting a Western Seperatist movement (given that it will be Ontario that keeps them in).

    Sad, yes, but this sentiment is skyrocketin out west. Electing this corrupt government may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. The scary thing is, I'm not an alarmist, just calling it as it appears to be.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 1:28 AM  

  • SM to BH - Would you think of running - we could find you a good (safe) seat?
    BH - For what a fuckin MP's salary?
    SM - We need people like you in Cabinet.
    BH - I'm thinkin more about the fuckin future...
    SM - Senate?
    BH - I've done more for fuckin Canada than fuckin Shania fuckin Twain...
    SM - OC and Senate?
    BH - Will it look bad?
    SM - Do you care?
    BH - If you get a majority it'll be fine and if you don't then it's got to look good.
    SM - What will you tell Layton.
    BH - Fuck Layton...
    SM - Is it a deal.
    BH - Yeah.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:25 AM  

  • Quite worthwhile material, thank you for the post.

    By Anonymous, at 11:43 AM  

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