Friday, November 18, 2005

Polls, Polls, Polls, Pennies, Predictions

1. Polls: The last few polls have shown a surprising degree of consistency.


SES: Lib 34% Con 28% Ndp 20%
Pollara: Lib 36% Con 28% Ndp 20% Bq 11%
Decima: Lib 33% Con 26% Ndp 22% Bq 13%
Ipsos: Lib 36%, Con 27%, NDP 16%, BQ 13%


In all cases, the Liberals have a 6 to 9% lead. However, this is a similar situation to where the Grits found themselves during the lead-up to the 2004 election. End result? It's still too close to call.


2. Polls II: The National Post has the results from a poll that shows that the whole notion of Canadians not wanting a Christmas campaign is a little overblown. Obviously if you ask people if they'd prefer a spring campaign versus a winter election, they'll say they'd prefer a spring campaign. If you ask me if I'd rather go to the dentist in January, or in April, I'd prefer the later date, even though I know I should get a cleaning. I can't for the life of me imagine anyone, in all of Canada, changing their vote because somebody forced a campaign over Christmas.


3. Polls III: While the Ipsos poll shows the Liberals well in front, they have some rather worrisome "bonus question" results:

39% say they would be comfortable voting for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives because there will be a minority government to keep them in check
35% say they would be comfortable voting for Paul Martin and the Liberals because they will have learned their lesson from Gomery
26% feel the tax plan was a good idea and makes them more likely to vote Liberal
43% of British Columbia residents say they would never consider voting for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives in the next federal election
70% feel the Liberal tax cut plan is just an attempt to buy votes and it won't influence them
78% say an election over the holidays won't affect their party vote


4. Pennies: Finally, a smart move from the Board. It baffled me why the Liberals didn't make the economy their issue during the last campaign. Things are going very well in Canada, and Paul Martin has had a very big hand in making things go very well over the past twelve years. This should definitely be the theme for the Liberal election campaign.


5. Predictions: There is absolutely no way this will happen. Notta. Nope. Nein. Non. Nu-uh. One week from now, the Tories can bring down the government on a harshly worded motion on corruption. If they vote down Liberal tax cuts, they'd be forced to campaign against popular tax cuts, instead of against corruption. This one seems like a bit of a no-brainer to me, but maybe someone out there can explain the logic.

7 Comments:

  • 43% of British Columbia residents say they would never consider voting for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives in the next federal election

    Just one question. How much of that poll was concentrated in the Lower Mainland and southern Vancouver Island? If the poll was taken with equal number of respondants from each riding, then as a conservative I'd be worried. Since I suspect they are not, then once again the Liberals will talk about their great BC breakthough and then be limited to Vancouver and Victoria.

    By Anonymous Don Mitchell, at 11:52 AM  

  • As a follow up to Don's post, NDP support is oscillating between 16-22%; that's a spread of almost a third. That's a wild card, especially in BC. Harper can no longer fight a one front war (i.e. the 905 - and his lacklustre appreciation of the fact that he only had to convince the 905 was why he lost last time), but will have to shore up the 'burbs and coast in BC.

    By Blogger matt, at 12:33 PM  

  • I totally agree with CG on the last point, to vote down the government on a tax relief bill makes no sense UNLESS the Conservatives immediately come through with their proposed GST cut by 2% AND announce deeper tax relief in their platform. I'm betting at least on the GST carrot...so much for all their phoney outrage over Ralph Goodale "buying votes."

    By Anonymous Fran Irwin, at 1:26 PM  

  • Don;

    BC is definitely a worrisome spot for the CPC. A lot of Liberals are really expecting big breakthroughs in the province. And I know the NDP are.

    Now, because of the way the map is drawn up, if Harper can get 40% in the province, he'll still do very well. Also, it seems the Tories always go up in BC during campaigns.

    But the province is definitely a three way race and, along with Ontario, is the only real wild card in this campaign (since we know Quebec will go BQ, the Prairies will go Con, and the Maritimes will stay roughly the same)

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 1:34 PM  

  • Good summary, CG.
    "1. Polls: [...] Ipsos: Lib 36%, Con 27%, NDP 16%, BQ 13%"
    I think I recall that this poll, unlike the others, included the Green Party in the options. Which would (a) explain the dip for the dippers and (b) be quite worrisome for them.

    "2. Polls II: [...]I can't for the life of me imagine anyone, in all of Canada, changing their vote because somebody forced a campaign over Christmas."

    I agree but the real issue is about voter turnout. The Liberals are hoping that a winter vote brought on by the opposition will piss off opposition supporters. If I were them (and I suppose I am!), I’d be more worried about Liberal supporters staying home. Especially with the internal battles still being waged. But mostly because the opposition parties are more fired up and more likely to consider it important to vote out this government.


    "3. Polls III: [...] 43% of British Columbia residents say they would never consider voting for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives in the next federal election"

    Don’t forget that the Conservatives lost support in BC in 2004 and the Liberals gained support. Also, the Green Party fared strongest in BC and the Dippers did their best outside of Ontario. Ontario may well be the most seat-rich province, but I suspect, as you do CG, BC will be the King-maker in 2006.

    "4. Pennies: Finally, a smart move from the Board. It baffled me why the Liberals didn't make the economy their issue during the last campaign. Things are going very well in Canada, and Paul Martin has had a very big hand in making things go very well over the past twelve years. This should definitely be the theme for the Liberal election campaign."

    Exactly. And it moves the discussion off of corruption and is forward-looking rather than backward-looking. And it’s the very point we have been making time and time again. Are they getting it now?


    "5. Predictions: There is absolutely no way this will happen. Notta. Nope. Nein. Non. Nu-uh."

    We can only hope that they try!!

    TB
    Cerberus

    By Blogger Cerberus, at 1:52 PM  

  • I have said time and time again that Brian Mulroney and the Conservatives laid the seed of the 10b dollar surpluses that Canada has now. Do you really think that JC would have introduced GST or Free Trade? Really?

    So now that we are well on the road to recovery, here is the reason why I still refuse to vote Liberal.

    The TCA is still a goat path throughout large parts of the country, urban/rural infrastructure (contrary to Ibbitson, rural Canada still counts) needs replacing, and if they were really serious about greenhouse gas then get serious about LRT in large and medium sized cities. Put some of the GST surplus into those types of projects and they get it all back because the contractors and the workers will be spending money and paying GST.
    Health care, get bloody serious about it. Look at alternate delivery, Mobile MRI's (that Ontario stupidly rejected) for one and I am sure smarter people than me could come up with numerous ideas to improve health care delivery. But the current climate, courteous of Dosanjh is such that if anyone conjures up an idea contrary to the Liberal line you are hounded to death. So much for open an honest debate.

    The Liberals need a time out, the sooner the better. The Conservative can bring accountability back to government. Maybe even they can make the goddamn parliament work like a team instead of the way it works now, "Only Liberals are true Canadians and the rest of you have no ideas worth our respect let alone recognition because you do not drink the Liberal Kool-Aid"

    By Anonymous Don Mitchell, at 2:54 PM  

  • All I know is that a 2 % swing could see us lose five seats in BC. Not alot.

    Try this out. Friend in Ottawa sent it to me yesterday, though I can't find it on their site anywhere. http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca

    By Anonymous Scratch, at 7:05 AM  

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