Sunday, November 13, 2005

If You Don't Like The Weather...

The saying here in Calgary is "if you don't like the weather, wait 15 minutes". Given the past week, I think Ottawa should adopt "if you don't like the election speculation, wait 15 minutes".

We've seen so many possible election dates bandied around over the past week, that's it's almost become futile to speculate on them. The latest rumour has the Tories set to topple the Liberals this Tuesday. The Tories are suggesting a December 21st election (Wednesday?), but you have to realistically think that would set up an early January vote.

What will happen? I'm all "speculated out" at this point so I have no clue. It's safe to say this Parliament will die before Christmas, it's just a matter of when.

UPDATE: Well, this seems like a fairly reasonable plan of action. Take the next week to frame the choice as a February vote or a Christmas campaign and then, when Martin refuses to give in, pull the plug the week of the 21st.

SUNDAY NIGHT UPDATE: The Liberals have rejected the proposal...again. One therefore imagines things will unfold as follows:
1. NDP motion is passed this Tuesday.
2. A week of posturing over who is to blame for the Christmas campaign.
3. The government is defeated on a Conservative non-confidence motion on Tuesday, November 22nd. I imagine the Liberals will want as long as campaign as possible, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them push the election day all the way back to January 16th or 23rd.

Mind you, this is all assuming Tony Valeri doesn't have some fun with the procedural calendar...


  • Liberal talking heads are still saying Dec. 27 if the plug is pulled Tuesday. I think PMPM will have a hard time justifying that, so I reckon January 9 with a one week truce between Christmas and New Years.

    By Blogger Greg, at 3:31 p.m.  

  • Its not the Libs saying the 27th, its the legislation called the Canada Elections Act. Did the tories not read the legislation or do they have a problem with math?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:42 p.m.  

  • The legislation only requires that it be a minimum of 36 days, the sitting PM can make it longer if he wants. I think the longest election we have ever had was something like 74 days? Maybe longer? If PM wants an election day during the holiday week then it is his call but I am guessing he will extend it.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:51 p.m.  

  • Good god call it now? All those people worried about the "ruined Christmas" here are a few thoughts to chew on:

    They will be campaining over the holidays anyway, why not vote before Christmas and we can have peace.

    The weather will be worse in Jan or Feb than it is in December.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:49 p.m.  

  • An election MUST take place on a Monday. It's in the Canada Elections Act; why do so many people who work in Parliament not know the bloody rules!?!?!?!

    By Blogger RGM, at 8:48 p.m.  

  • Regardless of when it takes place, it will be, as usual, a depressing time in Calgary because people don't even question the conservative candidates; they vote blindly.

    By Blogger Polly Jones, at 1:37 a.m.  

  • Martin isn't helping htings, Polly. Same old same old politics, by someone I hoped would have been different.

    A budget with 30B of new spending? We're still trying to buy votes.

    Oh, how the power corrupts.


    By Blogger Teddy, at 2:08 a.m.  

  • "A budget with 30B of new spending? We're still trying to buy votes.

    Oh, how the power corrupts."

    Wow. If I didn't know better, I'd assume you were talking about Alberta...

    ~Matt O

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:54 a.m.  

  • It's all very interesting (for us political hacks only, of course).

    The opposition parties have to bring their no confidence motion down now or else they risk losing any legitimacy to their claim that the government doesn't have the confidence of the House or the moral authority to rule. Plus they would end up looking like politically spinless whiners.

    That being said, one interesting factor that the Three Amigos maybe haven't focussed on is that be bringing down the government now the election will be held before the Gomery II comes out.


    By Blogger Ted Betts, at 10:15 a.m.  

  • Prediction for next Canadian election

    Liberals retain minority with fewer seats
    NDP gains some seats
    Tories stall

    Result: Liberals and Tories dump Martin and Harper before follow-up election
    Good news: Maybe we'll get someone with vision to lead the country instead of Mr. Dithers and Mr. Icicle

    By Blogger cardinal47, at 10:27 a.m.  

  • So, I do not actually consider this may have success.

    By Anonymous, at 2:38 a.m.  

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