Saturday, June 05, 2004

Time to Panic!


Liberals 32%
Conservatives 31%
NDP 17%
BQ 11%
Greens 6%

And Harper had a bad week? What the hell will happen if Martin gets beaten in the debates? Or makes a major gaffe?


  • The Ipsos polling was done June 1st - 3rd, so the full weight of the media's frenzy of Abortion, Gay Rights, and the Dealth Penalty may not be truly reflected in the numbers. That said, I believe all three issues have faded (although Gay Rights less so, perceptually) as the media lost interest and Harper made clear his party's positions.

    My real concern is "early poll peaking" for the Conservatives, combined with the upcoming debate, ignoring unforeseen gaffes. The media will seize on a flattening of the growth curve as "the tide has turned favourable for the Liberals", and the debate will make or break both Martin and Harper.

    Harper needs just a break-even to get through it, Martin needs a win. Jack's the spoiler, of course, and if he discerns Harper's going to get a solid minority, or possibly a majority, he will go for Harper's throat. I think Harper can handle it, and on the CPC-Lib side of the debate, I wouldn't be surprised to see something equivalent to the infamous "You had a choice, Sir" within it. Should be fun.

    Still stand by my 159 seats for the Conservatives, though. And I expect to be demolished after the election by bloggers saying I was crazy to think the Liberals couldn't win again. Just a joke, really.

    By Blogger, at 12:04 p.m.  

  • I really think Harper's going to do well in the debates. Martin's alright with prepared lines but he stammers and stumbles when he's caught off guard. Harper's wittier, quicker, and a better speaker so I think he'll come off on top of the debates.

    And while it will be hard for the Tories to win a majority without Quebec...right now, I'd say a Conservative majority is as likely as a Liberal majority. But, my guess is we'll still see an unworkable minority and another election within a year.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 1:46 p.m.  

  • I think you are right about the debate, but the variability of debates always worries me. I would expect a few red-herrings leaked my anonymous sources to the press about the 13th or so.

    About the Bloc. It now looks like 55 seats is possible as a minimum. I think there is also an outside chance that Martin may not get elected in his own seat. Bloc support has firmed up.

    My wild dream, of course, is that Quebecers discern a Conservative national win and dump the Bloc for the winners. It's happened before.

    More interesting, the trendlines continue upwards in the Maritimes which are the last of the Liberal stronghold. Not only that, the professed desire for change is rising there too, according to Ipsos and Leger.

    Next hurdle, though, is Harper's formal platform due out this weekend. And then defending against what I think will be the antics of the Liberal war-room while Martin is away on the D-Day schmozzle.

    Ah, this tension is killing me! Still stand by (at least) 159 seats, though. Always an optimist.

    By Blogger, at 3:32 p.m.  

  • Wow. I'm just reading Harper's Platform document now, here:


    By Blogger, at 4:08 p.m.  

  • OK, I'm feeling a lot better now. It was a giant torpedo aimed at the Liberals, and I think it hit it's mark squarely.

    Although "fudgy" somewhat, the Conservative platform uses the Liberals' own 2004 budget revenue and interest lines, thus taking that away as attack items. Then substitutes new costs, and even leaves comparable surpluses. This is going to be hard for the Liberals to attack, since it relies so much on Liberal estimates and would force people into a level of detail they don't want to hear, if any cost issues are raised.

    Conversely, Martin's now trapped by what was in, and not in, the February budget.

    On the whole, talking about programs, there's at least two points of contention: the free vote on gay marriages, and restoring democracy to the Liberal party (my subtitle). On the latter point, it looks like an unnecessary intrusion into political party constitutions, but maybe this is a throw-away point just designed to embarass the Liberals.

    Also, the check-off for political contributions is still really taxpayer funded, but at least there's more direct control over who gets it. Should help the Greens, for example, and act to make parties work on attracting converts to their cause. Good-oh!

    The platform document has to take 110% in marks for presentation, to, not to mention timing: after the others, and to not create a vacuum for the dirty-tricks crowd to fill while the PM is innoceently on the beaches of Norway (whoops).

    Great strategy and tactics, combined with flawless execution.

    By Blogger, at 5:57 p.m.  

  • By Blogger mmjiaxin, at 8:38 p.m.  

  • By Blogger rrrraaahuuulll, at 6:28 a.m.  

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