Monday, May 31, 2004

Free Falling:

According to SES:

Grits 34%
Tories 31%
NDP 19%
Bloc 12%

The weird thing is, this was a good week for the PM. He revealled key parts of his platform which should have drawn people towards the Liberals and he stayed out of trouble. Meanwhile, Layton had a very bad week and Harper got in trouble on billingualism.

But the result? The Liberals are falling fast in the polls. This has got to be worrisome because there is a good chance that:
1. Martin will get tired as the campaign progresses
2. Martin will do poorly in the debates
3. Martin or his team will make a major gaffe at some point

If Team Martin is falling before this happens, you have to wonder what will happen once things start to go poorly? My take on this is that Canadians are simply not warming up to Martin and they want to kick the Liberals out. Harper is looking more and more human to them so support is being bled off to the Conservatives

Given this, I think we can forget a majority government. The real question now becomes who will win the election?


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