Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Pre-Christmas Seat Projections

Ho ho ho! Look what Santa has brought Stephen Harper for Christmas. Why, it's a 17.6% chance at a majority.

For the first time since I started running these projections in July, a Conservative majority is a real possibility, abeit still a low probability outcome. Of course, these projections are based on where the ball is now - and Harper's numbers always seem to bounce back down whenever he gets close to that elusive majority.

Since the last update, Harper's largest gains have come in Ontario (up 6 seats on average) and BC (up 5 seats on average) - his support numbers have not shifted noticeably anywhere else in the country.

Does this mean he'll try for an early 2011 election? Unless he thinks he can nab that majority, there's no real incentive to. He's in power, his job is secure, and the opposition parties aren't exactly chomping at his heels (as these numbers show).

For a long methodology description, click here. For a shorter one, you can just read the first few lines of last month's update.



  • I read an article about a Le Devoir poll that had the Liberals running fourth among French voters in Quebec at 14 per cent. How many Liberal seats would you project in Quebec?

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 11:48 a.m.  

  • That poll strikes me as a bit of an outlier - the recent Leger one had them at 21%. My weighted rolling average for Quebec has it as:

    BQ 36.8%
    LPC 21.9%
    CPC 18.2%
    NDP 16.5%
    Green 6.0%

    That works out to 12-19 seats, with 15.4 being the average, which is right around what they have now (14).

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 3:57 p.m.  

  • I would suggest your model suggest Toronto being safe needs another look.
    If 2000 went 100 seats red with splits for JC why can't the CPC pick up an extra 20 seat in Ontario next time around the GTA and Toronto proper?

    The Liberal Premiers won't be of any assistance for the Federal cousins. The balance sheets and lack of star power for the next election will have no consequence?

    Will the law and order campaign be enough to revisit the John Turner results.

    The demise of the CPC in Quebec may be overstated?

    By Blogger CanadianSense, at 5:35 p.m.  

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