Friday, November 12, 2010

November Seat Projections

Yesterday, I gave an overview of the polling numbers - today, an updated seat projection.

The long explanation of how I came up with these numbers is here. The short of it is the model simulates an election 10,000 times, taking the following into account:

-Publicly released polling data
-2004, 2006, and 2008 election results
-Riding demographics
-The historical variance in riding results, compared to regional results
-Accuracy of Canadian pollsters in predicting recent provincial and federal elections
-Incumbency
-By election results

The benefit of this model over other projections is that this gives you a robust prediction that smooths out some of the blips you get when you only use the last election as your benchmark, it's data driven, and it takes "election day swings" when the polls are all off into account.

It's NOT a prediction of the next election, but reflects what we could expect if the election were held today.

So, with that, here are the updated projections:





If you compare these to the October sim...well, the results aren't that interesting, with no party moving by more than 2 seats on average. I know "Nothing Happened" isn't an eye-catching headline but, more often than not that's the reality of the situation, as excited as well all get over every mini-scandal and ministerial resignation.

Now, as then, we're on a crash course for a Tory minority, with only a 0.1% chance of a Liberal government and a 0.3% chance of a Harper majority.

Still, that would mean gains for the Liberals from 2008, most notably in Ontario (+8.1), but also in BC (+2.8), Quebec (+1.7), and Atlantic Canada (+1.4).

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7 Comments:

  • Awesome, good job CG. I nominate you as the Nate Silver of Canada. I love this sort of projection system.

    I wonder, though, if you have riding-by-riding results, saying that the Liberals have this much chance of winning this seat, or the Conservatives have this much chance of winning this seat, etc.

    By Blogger Volkov, at 6:23 PM  

  • How many of the 137 seats in play for the Libs, would be an NDP loss?

    How man of the 46 seats in play for the NDP, would be a LPC loss?

    Just wondering how that coalition thing is shaping up, CJ

    By Blogger wilson, at 8:04 PM  

  • I think the Liberals would lose seats in Atlantic Canada, as the Conservatives take back seats in Nfld. Have you tried your projection with the upcoming seat re-distribution to see how the parties would do?

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 9:37 AM  

  • It would be impossible to project anything based on a seat re-distribution that won't happen for another four years and that no one has even begun to map.

    By Blogger DL, at 1:07 PM  

  • The CPC won't be winning a seat in NL let alone seats nuna d. above.

    By Blogger Red Tory Liberal, at 6:03 PM  

  • CG, What do you think will happen in Edmonton Strathcona? Do the PC's win it back?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:28 PM  

  • you could creata a crown dedicated to bidding for GHG intensive ab properties, creating nursing homes or whatever with gov bonds, document patient improvements and become health powerhouse and export. Or tax incentives for global ccs site demos and monitoring data over time (cutting edge geology). civic and mpp consults here.

    By Anonymous job/yrs, at 7:26 AM  

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