November Seat Projections
The long explanation of how I came up with these numbers is here. The short of it is the model simulates an election 10,000 times, taking the following into account:
-Publicly released polling data
-2004, 2006, and 2008 election results
-The historical variance in riding results, compared to regional results
-Accuracy of Canadian pollsters in predicting recent provincial and federal elections
-By election results
The benefit of this model over other projections is that this gives you a robust prediction that smooths out some of the blips you get when you only use the last election as your benchmark, it's data driven, and it takes "election day swings" when the polls are all off into account.
It's NOT a prediction of the next election, but reflects what we could expect if the election were held today.
So, with that, here are the updated projections:
If you compare these to the October sim...well, the results aren't that interesting, with no party moving by more than 2 seats on average. I know "Nothing Happened" isn't an eye-catching headline but, more often than not that's the reality of the situation, as excited as well all get over every mini-scandal and ministerial resignation.
Now, as then, we're on a crash course for a Tory minority, with only a 0.1% chance of a Liberal government and a 0.3% chance of a Harper majority.
Still, that would mean gains for the Liberals from 2008, most notably in Ontario (+8.1), but also in BC (+2.8), Quebec (+1.7), and Atlantic Canada (+1.4).
Labels: Seat Projections