Saturday, November 25, 2006

Ted Morton Is The Man

I can't find the results on TV anywhere so I'm following along on Larry Johnsrude's blog. Of course, Larry has decided to blog cryptic updates rather than numbers which is a bit frustrating.

From his latest update, it sounds like Ted Morton is doing quite well and it's shaping into a two man race.

Which means the race is down to Ted Morton is the Man versus Sing a Song for Jim.

UPDATE: With 33 of 83 polls in, Dinning leads, but it's not by a large margin.

Dinning 10,281
Morton 8,364
Stelmach 5,747
Oberg 4,427
Norris 2,612
Hancock 2,269
McPherson 264
Doerksen 526

UPDATE: With 63 of 83 polls reporting:

Dinning 20,837
Morton 18,897
Stelmach 11,523
Oberg 8,636

If Stelmach can get his total a bit higher and get some endorsements, he might have a chance. Either way, there are going to be some interesting votes next Saturday in both the Quebec and Alberta nations.

UPDATE: The Final Results:

Jim Dinning 29470 (30.2%)
Ted Morton 25648 (26.2%)
Ed Stelmach 14967 (15.31%)
Lyle Oberg 11638 (11.9%)
Dave Hancock 7595 (7.8%)
Mark Norris 6789 (6.9%)
Victor Doerksen 873 (0.9%)
Gary McPherson 744 (0.8%)


The Morning After UPDATE: It's a three man race which anyone could win. Which means next Saturday is going to be one hell of a day for political junkies. Seriously, if you like politics, savour it, because it's hard to imagine the stars ever being aligned like this again.

As for the race to replace Ralph, it's a tough one. It's a preferential ballot so, one imagines, if Stelmach can claw his way up to second place, he'll win. But he'll need to double his vote to do that which means, along with Hancock who has endorsed him, he'll need to get Norris and Oberg onside.

Morton did a lot better than anyone imagined and might actually win this thing which would be something Canadians living outside the Alberta nation would have to take notice of. Getting over 50% will still be difficult for him, but I wouldn't count it out, especially if he gets Oberg's support.

As for Dinning, I'd still put my money on him but, man, has he ever got to be worried. He's been working at this for a decade but didn't even come close to the Paul Martin dominance people expected. It's possible a lot of his supporters just stayed home because they thought he was a lock to make it to the second ballot and this should be a wake up call for them. Luckily Morton is his main challenger so he can paint this as a Morton-Dinning battle.


  • The links you need are here:

    Alberta Tory results

    By Blogger George, at 12:30 a.m.  

  • Live leadership results:

    Dinning 13659
    Morton 10781
    Stelmach 9241
    Oberg 5265
    Norris 3885
    Hancock 3595
    Doerksen 579
    McPherson 366

    By Blogger wilson, at 12:56 a.m.  

  • 11:15pm:
    Dinning 24688
    Morton 22796
    Stelmach 13948
    Oberg 10479

    By Blogger wilson, at 2:01 a.m.  

  • Interestingly, Johnstrude is reporting on his blog that Hancock has endorsed Stelmach. It makes next weekend's election into a definite 3 horse race. Stelmach is a serious contender.

    By Blogger Andy, at 2:08 a.m.  

  • The first ballot is over. No one got 50% +1 so the second ballot will be held next weekend. Dinning is in the lead by a margin of some 2000 votes (last I heard on local CTV news which was at the time the second ballot was announced).

    By Blogger catnip, at 2:12 a.m.  

  • Via CFCN:

    Jim Dinning 29470
    Victor Doerksen 873
    Dave Hancock 7595
    Gary McPherson 744
    Ted Morton 25648
    Mark Norris 6789
    Lyle Oberg 11638
    Ed Stelmach 14967

    By Blogger catnip, at 2:15 a.m.  

  • For a grand total of less than 100k voters in a race that was supposed to have around 100k members sold for just one leadership campaign.

    By Blogger Gauntlet, at 2:37 a.m.  

  • Well, 100,000 votes in a nation of Alberta's size isn't too bad. That's the equivalent of a million votes at the federal level.

    By Blogger calgarygrit, at 3:14 a.m.  

  • Also don't forget the weather was a dog's ass outside. Anybody really think Victor Doerkson only signed up 800 memberships? He probably had that many supporters in his own riding! (though admittedly few outside his own riding)

    By Blogger Feynman and Coulter's Love Child, at 5:49 a.m.  

  • Its a repeat of the last Tory leadership. The insider in the lead, and the right wing golden boy coming up on the outside.

    Last time Nancy MacBeth made the mistake of concentrating on getting support from the other candidates and people who voted for them. Ralph Klien ignored the old voters went out a bought more memberships to overcome the deficit.

    Which strategy will be used by each candidate? Will Morton appeal in the fundamentalist churches this morning to get out and put their man under the dome? Can Dinning get any endorsements from other candidates, and will anyone listen? Will the party declare a plague on both of their houses and vote Stelmach?

    As far as the campaign was concerned, I was particularly impressed with the Dinning's campaign method of not wasting money on memberships for people who don't turn up. Instead of giving out memberships (which have to be paid for) before voting day, they gave out vouchers. On voting day, they had vans at each polling station and traded the free (I mean prepaid) vouchers for paid up memberships. Then people went in and voted. I can only say that I am impressed!

    Given that 2/3 of those who got vouchers likely did not vote, this turned out to be a big money saver and put his financial resources where it counted.

    By Blogger Stephen Jenuth, at 9:32 a.m.  

  • I don't think we'll ever know just how much impact the cold weather really had on the turnout. I mean, this is Alberta. Going out in weather like this is not exactly an obstacle to people who are so used to it and this leadership race, the first one of its kind in such a long time, would definitely bring about the devoted and those excited about a change in Kings.

    By Blogger catnip, at 5:08 p.m.  

  • Oberg will almost certainly go to Morton. They signed each others nomination papers and had a deal that whoever finished higher would be supported by the other.

    Since the party establishment sidelined Oberg, neither Dinning nor Stelmach can expect support from him.

    I would also suggest that Oberg supporters are very loyal to him, given all we have been through.

    Hancock has gone to Stelmach.

    Norris will probably go to Dinning.

    Oberg will go to Morton and the chips will fall where they may.

    It will all come down to whose supporters are motivated to vote.

    I'm guessing that Morton/Oberg people will have close to a 100% turn out rate.

    Do the other campaigns have the same passion?

    Probably not

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 7:59 p.m.  

  • Actually, it looks like Oberg's gone to Ed Stelmach.

    The irony of the guy who seems to be the biggest "team player" in the race getting the endorsement of the guy who, well, kind of isn't seen as being one (at least if Klein gets a vote on it) is pretty good, no?

    Whether any endorsements mean a darn thing in this kind of race is a completely different question, of course...

    By Blogger Jason Hickman, at 8:56 p.m.  

  • I've met with cabinet ministers in the past month and the concept of team players is interesting.

    Lots of backstabbing among the incumbents so I don't see much solidarity.

    That is current cabinet ministers undermining their colleagues ( other existing PC cabinet ministers).

    Team player is a loosely defined concept.

    Competence is another

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 11:11 p.m.  

  • To my surprise Oberg is going to Stelmach.

    Perhaps I misunderstood the deal. Maybe Oberg and Morton both had to be on the final ballot for one to endorse the other.

    And going to Stelmach is what he sees as being in the best interests of the PC party, not to mention that there is no love lost between Oberg and Dinning.

    Liberals should want a Morton victory because that would provide access to a large component of the political spectrum.

    The size of the Morton constituency wins in the south suggests that it is not just the extreme right that is supporting him.

    By Blogger Down & Out in L A, at 7:36 a.m.  

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