Week in Review
With a campaign this long, it might make more sense to do monthly updates but I'll try to do a "week in review" every Sunday evening. If there are any other features you'd like to see in the "week in review", feel free to suggest them in the comments:
Weekly Winner: Political Junkies. An avalanche of polls, a long campaign, actual policy to debate, lots of media attention, over two hours daily of politics shows on both CBC and CTV...it's gonna be a fun campaign.
Weekly Loser: Michael Ignatieff. And people wonder why more academics don't get involved in politics. The guy has seen every word he's ever written get taken out of contest, he's been called an "egghead", he's been heckled - it's been ugly. I tend to agree with Radwanski's take on this:
Ignatieff has been thrown to the wolves on this one. I don't agree with a lot of what he's said but I think he'll be a huge addition to parliament. But the guy has a lot to learn. This week has certainly shown that the talk of "Ignatieff for Liberal leader" is extremely premature.
The Polls
The following numbers are based on an average of the end of the week polls (based on five Thursday-Saturday polls). In brackets you can find what these translate to in seats, using the Hill & Knowlton election predictor:
Liberals 35% (118)
CPC 29.6% (102)
NDP 16% (25)
BQ 14% (62)
Blog of The Week: Hack & Wonks
Every week I'm going to pick a blog that I feel has been on top of the game in election coverage and analysis. This week, I've kicked it off with Hacks & Wonks, who has been quick to post the best news and pictures of the campaign trail all week long.
Scott Feshchuck Line of the Week:
Joke of the Week: "Sure, Ignatieff supports torture - he's in favour of Paul Martin's re-election, isn't he?"
Got Too Much Media: The "Harper Hates Canada" stuff. Good grief.
Got Too Little Media: Jack Layton's post-secondary spending announcement.
Quote of the Week: "You must chose the best man to lose the country" - Paul Martin.
Liberals Week in Review: Grade B-
Getting Buzz Hargrove was a big catch and the polls are still very positive for Paul. Still...the warning signs are all there when you look at the "bonus questions" in the polls. The Ignatieff candidacy has blown up in their faces and I'm starting to wonder if the Liberals have any policy promises to make this election. If they don't, they could find themselves in trouble.
Conservatives Week in Review: Grade B+
After stumbling out of the gate, Harper finished the week strong. He looks relaxed and has even been smiling a bit. He definitely needs to get his wife and kids out campaigning as much as possible (once school ends) to humanize him. Getting all the policy announcements out there early is huge since it's going to make the "hidden agenda" attacks very difficult. And I do think the GST promise will resonate with a lot of Canadians.
NDP Week in Review: Grade C
Maybe I should change Jack's campaign song to "don't you forget about me". Layton has become invisible, and it's starting to look like a lot of Liberals may just have been parking their votes with smiling Jack. No real mistakes on Layton's part, but he's got to be very worried about how things have been going so far.
BQ Week in Review: Grade C
A lot of people kidded around about it, but I really think Duceppe's hockey team idea could hurt him. A lot of people in Quebec look back fondly on Gretzky and Lemieux playing side by side in all those Canada Cups; hockey has always been one of the things to bring Canadians together.
More importantly, soft nationalists like the idea of keeping the Canadian passport and dollar, even in a separate Quebec. The more you remind them of the things they won't be able to keep, the more uneasy they'll get. Sure, they'll still sweep the province, but it's a rocky start for Gilles, Don Cherry's endorsement aside.
Weekly Winner: Political Junkies. An avalanche of polls, a long campaign, actual policy to debate, lots of media attention, over two hours daily of politics shows on both CBC and CTV...it's gonna be a fun campaign.
Weekly Loser: Michael Ignatieff. And people wonder why more academics don't get involved in politics. The guy has seen every word he's ever written get taken out of contest, he's been called an "egghead", he's been heckled - it's been ugly. I tend to agree with Radwanski's take on this:
It'd all be very cute if we were some small town in the American south and he'd just arrived from New York thinking he was all superior. But are we really so insecure as a country that we need to make life difficult for smart folks who've made a name for themselves abroad and want to return home to make a difference here?
Hey, if you're happy with the quality of representation we currently have in Ottawa, then no worries. But if you're prone to wondering aloud why most of our politicians are so mediocre...well, here's your answer.
Ignatieff has been thrown to the wolves on this one. I don't agree with a lot of what he's said but I think he'll be a huge addition to parliament. But the guy has a lot to learn. This week has certainly shown that the talk of "Ignatieff for Liberal leader" is extremely premature.
The Polls
The following numbers are based on an average of the end of the week polls (based on five Thursday-Saturday polls). In brackets you can find what these translate to in seats, using the Hill & Knowlton election predictor:
Liberals 35% (118)
CPC 29.6% (102)
NDP 16% (25)
BQ 14% (62)
Blog of The Week: Hack & Wonks
Every week I'm going to pick a blog that I feel has been on top of the game in election coverage and analysis. This week, I've kicked it off with Hacks & Wonks, who has been quick to post the best news and pictures of the campaign trail all week long.
Scott Feshchuck Line of the Week:
2:44 PM - Just want to take this opportunity to say hello to the hard-working person in the Conservative war room whose job it is to spend his or her day perusing this sorry blog for imaginary offensive references that Jason Kenney can get hysterical about. Keep sharp, stay on your toes. I sense a reference to The Killers coming on, at which point you can launch your "Paul Martin Supports Indiscriminant Homicide" press release.Yeah, Scott's blog is a gaffe waiting to happen, but it's actually been surprisingly enjoyable so far.
Joke of the Week: "Sure, Ignatieff supports torture - he's in favour of Paul Martin's re-election, isn't he?"
Got Too Much Media: The "Harper Hates Canada" stuff. Good grief.
Got Too Little Media: Jack Layton's post-secondary spending announcement.
Quote of the Week: "You must chose the best man to lose the country" - Paul Martin.
Liberals Week in Review: Grade B-
Getting Buzz Hargrove was a big catch and the polls are still very positive for Paul. Still...the warning signs are all there when you look at the "bonus questions" in the polls. The Ignatieff candidacy has blown up in their faces and I'm starting to wonder if the Liberals have any policy promises to make this election. If they don't, they could find themselves in trouble.
Conservatives Week in Review: Grade B+
After stumbling out of the gate, Harper finished the week strong. He looks relaxed and has even been smiling a bit. He definitely needs to get his wife and kids out campaigning as much as possible (once school ends) to humanize him. Getting all the policy announcements out there early is huge since it's going to make the "hidden agenda" attacks very difficult. And I do think the GST promise will resonate with a lot of Canadians.
NDP Week in Review: Grade C
Maybe I should change Jack's campaign song to "don't you forget about me". Layton has become invisible, and it's starting to look like a lot of Liberals may just have been parking their votes with smiling Jack. No real mistakes on Layton's part, but he's got to be very worried about how things have been going so far.
BQ Week in Review: Grade C
A lot of people kidded around about it, but I really think Duceppe's hockey team idea could hurt him. A lot of people in Quebec look back fondly on Gretzky and Lemieux playing side by side in all those Canada Cups; hockey has always been one of the things to bring Canadians together.
More importantly, soft nationalists like the idea of keeping the Canadian passport and dollar, even in a separate Quebec. The more you remind them of the things they won't be able to keep, the more uneasy they'll get. Sure, they'll still sweep the province, but it's a rocky start for Gilles, Don Cherry's endorsement aside.
posted by calgarygrit at
10:16 p.m.
10 Comments:
I generally agree with your assessment of the first week. You mention that Layton has not made much impact. Today he stumbled and muddied the NDP position on healthcare.
After struggling valiantly all week to attract some attention to the NDP, Layton muddied the waters of the NDP position re healthcare . Layton says his party will focus on stopping the flow of public money into private health care, not on shutting down private clinics. Layton said private clinics are a "fundamental aspect" of the health-care system founded by former Saskatchewan premier Tommy Douglas and not much can be done about them. Layton says he wants to stop tax dollars from boosting the bottom lines of big health-care corporations.
"Our focus is to keep public health-care dollars going to public and non-profit facilities. What happens with people in the privacy of their own relationship financially, that's up to them."
Layton said private clinics have been around from the beginning. He said the NDP focus is on what happens to the public tax dollars.Layton said: "We want them going to non-profit and public facilities and services."
Layton's statement seems to contradict what the NDP has been saying about stopping the privatization of health care. If he doesn't clarify his position quickly, he's going to lose one of the few clear issues on which the NDP might have been able to differentiate itself from the Liberals.
And what do you think of Duceppe's boast of a possible Bloc sweep in Quebec. Bolstered by a 30-point lead in opinion polls over the Liberals,Duceppe said the sovereigntist Bloc will win all of Quebec's 75 ridings, effectively making the Liberals disappear from the political landscape. Does Duceppe know something we don't or has he fallen prey to a flight of rhetoric?
By
cardinal47, at 11:27 p.m.
30 point leads make people arrogant, and therefore sloppy. Between the hockey team and this stupid statement, it's clear that Duceppe thinks he is invincible. However, with a 2 month campaign, all he'll need is a drop of a few points in the polls over Christmas to snap him out of it for the January push. He'll no doubt still do well.
By
Anonymous, at 1:13 a.m.
1) The NDP campaign has been a disaster so far. Then again, it always is. Every single election, Dippers talk about a breakthrough, and every time, they come up with 20 seats. It's kind of sad..
2) The Bloc's ceiling is around 66 seats. Randy White could win in Montreal's west if he ran as a Liberal.
3) I feel like the Liberals are saving up most of their announcements for after Christmas. Their theory could be that people will forget everything over the break and the campaign will essentially "reset" in January. They could be right. Or maybe I'm just giving them too much credit...
By
Michael Fox, at 10:31 a.m.
Woah - the seats you got out of the election predictor are damn near exactly my seat predictions on Bow, James Bow. I just got an eerie little shiver. I'm off by 3 seats.
By
Anonymous, at 11:51 a.m.
Thanks for the plug of the ole blog CG.
We must be careful though, because we're starting a mutually infatution society between our two blogs.
After all, we're supposed to be enemies you know... *grin*
By
The Hack, at 1:24 p.m.
Radwanski said;"But are we really so insecure as a country that we need to make life difficult for smart folks who've made a name for themselves abroad and want to return home to make a difference here?"
Give me a break. The guy is a Liberal. I guess if you call "making a difference" stealing from the public then you are probably right.
Horny Toad
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