A Fortnight to Remember...or Forget

It may not have been politics at its finest, it may not have inspired. But, hell, it sure was something to watch, eh? So if you happened to have been out of the country for the past two weeks, here's what you missed.

November 26th: With a recession looming and Canadians losing their jobs, Stephen Harper decides the best way to turn the situation around is to...go for the jugular. In these tough economic times, opposition parties are a luxury we simply cannot afford.

November 27th: All hell breaks loose.

November 28th: Harper pulls the changes to the public financing rules, averting a messy showdown...or not.

November 28th: Harper postpones confidence votes and opposition days. But this is way different than when Paul Martin did it. Really.

November 29th: The Tories strike the anti-strike legislation from the fiscal update and announced a January 27th budget.

November 30th: The Tories pull a Grewal and tape an NDP conference call hinting at a secret NDP-Bloc deal.

December 1st: John Ivison announces that Michael Ignatieff will lead the coalition government. His sources weren't wrong, they were just ahead of their time.

December 1st - a few hours later: The coalition leaders meet and sign an accord, with Dion as leader. Hey, who invited Gilles Duceppe?

December 2nd: Tory attack ads begin airing.

December 2nd: "Separatists, traitors, betraying Canada, separatists, power grab, separatists, they didn't even have a canadian flag behind them!"

December 2nd: Michaelle Jean cuts her vacation short...again.

December 3rd: If you'd told me a week ago that a webcam video would force a politician to resign, I would have guessed you were talking about Maxime Bernier. Alas, Dion's address to the nation arrives late, out of focus, and with the production values of a Tory attack ad.

December 4th: After forcing the PM to sit through a two and a half hour slide-slow of vacation pictures, Michaelle Jean agrees to prorogue Parliament. After all, confidence in the House of Commons is like the stock market; you haven't lost money until you sell, and you haven't lost confidence until they vote.

December 6th: Are you for democracy? If so, there were several competing ways to express your support for democracy...and to voice your displeasure over what you thought was the worst thing to ever happen in the history of Canada - regardless of what specifically you thought that was.

December 8th - morning: Just over three years after winning the leadership, Dion resigns...again.

December 8th - afternoon: Dominic LeBlanc drops out and tosses his support to Michael Ignatieff.

December 8th - late night: Some people wanted 137 Liberal MPs and Senators to pick the next leader. Others wanted 68,000 Liberals to. The National Executive splits the difference and enfranchises a couple hundred party officials.

December 8th - later night: Did landing on CNN make this crisis important? No. Did landing as the number 3 story on google news make this crisis important? No. This story became important the minute it got the lead on the Daily Show.

December 9th: Ready to Roll...over. Bob Rae drops out of the race, handing the crown to his old roommate, Michael Ignatieff.

Also
48 hours in 14 seconds
My uneasiness with the coalition
What If History: Martin Prorogues
How the Grinch Prorogued Parliament

Pro-Prorogue Polls

Sure, sure, we could argue over the proper spelling of "precedent" all night long but I know what you're all itching for - polling data!

Angus Reid
47% believe GG should prorogue
37% believe she should let coalition take power

More people watched Harper speak than Dion speak last night but, judging from what they thought of both speeches, that's a good thing for Dion.

44% believe the Conservative minority has the moral authority to govern
31% believe the Liberal-NDP coalition has the moral authority to govern


Ipsos Reid
Pro-prorogue 68%
Coalition 29%

Election 56%
Prorogue 38%

CPC 46% Lib 23% NDP 13% BQ 9% Green 8%


Ekos
We need a break 37%
Coalition time 28%
Election 19%

Harper government best to deal with economic crisis 47%
Dion coalition best to deal with economic crisis 34%

CPC 44% Lib 24% NDP 15% BQ 9% Green 8%


UPDATE: The Strategic Counsel mirrors these results. The country may be divided but, for once, the pollsters are not.

Days of our Parliamentary Lives - Wednesday Night Edition

Previously on days of our parliamentary lives...

Gilles and Stock plotted to form a coalition. Gilles, Jack, and Steve plotted to form a coalition. Gilles, Jack, and Stephane plotted to form a coalition (now the #3 story in the world).

And now, today's thrilling non-conclusion to our story:


1. A Leger poll is out tonight.


2. Rob Silver has an interest take on the deal with the Bloc.


3. Michael Chong's take on this: "we misread the situation". Chong strikes me as one of the real stand-up guys in the Tory caucus and I hope he has a prominent role in their party post-Harper.


4. Canada's New Opposition blog is launched.


5. Liberal insider Don Martin pulls an Ivison and starts speculating about a Liberal Cabinet.


6. Constitutional expert Bob Beal has everything you ever wanted to know about prorogation, but were too afraid to ask. He tosses scenario out as an idea - my money is on this happening tomorrow:

The Governor-General could prorogue the House, but on the condition that the government operate as it would between the time of a dissolution of Parliament and an election. That means the government could manage day-to-day affairs until Parliament was again summoned. But it could not do many things governments usually do. It could not, for example, appoint judges or ambassadors, or negotiate treaties with other countries, or take major policy initiatives that might bind future governments. In other words, the Governor-General would not approve orders-in-council that require cabinet decisions.


7. Danielle Takacs rebuts my concern over the coalition.

As Exciting as all this is...

...here's my bottom line. Looking at this one objectively, Harper should compromise on the FU, the opposition should back him, and he should therefore stay in power until the next election (when, hopefully, he deservingly gets his ass handed to him). But since the man has shown himself incapable of compromise, the coalition has every right to exercise their combined majority in the House of Commons and take control. I know Stephen Harper would agree with me on that one.

So, yes, I'm definitely looking forward to the possibility of Prime Minister Dion being sworn in next week, and of seeing Harper undone by the partisan mean-spirited nature that has defined his time as Prime Minister. But I have to admit that the whole thing does leave me feeling a little uneasy. Like all good Liberals, there's no place I'd rather be than in power, but I do think we should all think the long term implications of this move through completely. Among the things that have me a little concerned:

1. Western Allienation: As other Alberta Liberals have pointed out, the backlash in Alberta and across Western Canada is going to be huge. You thought the "No! No! No!" headlines were over the top today? Well you ain't seen nothing yet.

2. The NDP is Legitimized: The one thing which has always kept the Liberals ahead of the NDP, even when the LPC sinks to it's lowest of lows, is the widely held perception that the NDP is not up for the job of being in government. By placing the NDP in Cabinet, you're implicitly admitting that they can handle the job. Plus, I have this rule of thumb that any move that makes Jack Layton grin from ear to ear like a Cheshire cat is a bad move.

3. The Coalition Precedence: Similarly, the NDP is going to expect Cabinet posts in any future minority government. So if we wind up with a Liberal plurality in the future, the NDP is going to be demanding seats at the Cabinet table as a condition of support.

4. The Coalition Precedence II: As Stephen Harper's 2004 letter shows, what's good for you one day, is not so good the next. And I have strong doubts that Liberals in love with the idea of a coalition government now would have welcomed one back in 2004. It's highly possible that a future Liberal leader who wins a plurality of the seats might find himself or herself in Stornoway.

5. The End of Strategic Voting: Since I've been following politics, the final week of every campaign has featured a Liberal leader appealing to other progressive voters to vote Liberal in a bid to stop the scary Conservative bogeyman of the day. Once voters have seen a progressive coalition take power, they're going to laugh at any Grit who tries to make the case that a vote for Layton is a vote for Harper. While it might be good for democracy to see this argument disappear, it's a potent argument to surrender.

6. Coalition Times are Tough Times: If we do hit a recession, do you really want to be in power when it happens?

7. The Race for 24 Sussex: With 30 month and 18 month deals signed, Dion has given his successor the keys to 24 Sussex as a parting gift. But Dion has also handcuffed whoever wins the Liberal leadership race to this contract. Sure, they can break it, but that would be a political hit in and of itself.

8. The Black Swan Effect: Sure, these parties can probably find common ground on the economy. But what happens when the unexpected happens? Will the Liberals and NDP be able to find ground on foreign policy? And, taking point number 7 to one of its three possible outcomes, could the NDP and Michael Ignatieff find common ground on foreign policy?

9. No Bloc Party: Yes, I know they've worked with other parties before. And I know nothing has been promised to them. And I trust Stephane Dion more than anyone else to stand up for Canada and to not cave in to Bloc demands. But I hate the Bloc Quebecois with a fiery passion. So this just feels wrong. Especially when the first letter from the trio talks about "a majority of Canadians and Quebecers".

10. Voter Reaction: Maybe voters will grow to love the coalition. Maybe it will lead to a Liberal majority - a common result of past Liberal/NDP cooperation. But you have to at least recognize that it could backfire. You also have to recognize that after seeing the craziness of the past week, the stability of a Conservative majority will sound appealing to some voters (then again, so could a Liberal majority).

11. Mandate: Yes, I know the leader with the fewest seats can govern. Yes, I know we elect parliaments, not Prime Ministers. But at the end of the day, Stephen Harper got 38% of the vote and Stephane Dion got 26%. The Conservatives got 143 seats and the Liberals got 77. Heck, even the Liberal-NDP coalition only got 114. So, from a purely conceptual point of view, this doesn't feel completely right.


Now, I could easily write counter-arguments to each of those 11 points of uneasiness (and I just might...). And in the end, the coalition is likely necessary because of Harper's unwillingness to compromise and the need for a government willing to deal with the economy. We've likely passed the point of no return, so the goal now is to make the best of it. But everyone involved should be aware of what's in the waters we're sailing into.

Days of our Parliamentary Lives - Tuesday Night Edition

1. We have the first bit of national polling data which tells us...I don't want to say "nothing", but "inconclusive" would be a good way to describe it.

2. Andrew Potter on coalition governments. Also at Macleans, Aaron Wherry recaps today's QP session, which he aptly describes as "democracy thrown to the hyenas" - after watching the clips, that comparison probably hurts hyenas reputation more than anything since The Lion King.

3. One of Harper's claims in the hyena feeding frenzy was that the opposition party leaders refused to put a Canadian flag behind them at yesterday's press conference. Uh...no.


4. James Bow and Kirmalak give two well thought out takes on this situation. (Is "situation" the proper choice of words? Crisis? Brouhaha? Hullabaloo?)

5. Michaelle Jean's vacation has been cut short...again. Seriously, if there's one person who needs to buy flight cancellation insurance when she books trips, it's her. Regardless, the talk around town is that Harper will be asking her to prorogue later this week. Political historians (suddenly cool and in demand everywhere!) are divided on what the proper response to that request would be, but in my humble opinion the proper move would be to refuse him until he shows he commands the confidence of the House.

6. Finally, through all of this, I think it's important that we do not lose sight of the more important things in life. Such as voting my Calgary Grit in the final round of the Canadian Blog Awards.

Past the point of no return?

I'll admit I was always of the opinion that this coalition would never come to pass but, after watching the trio's press conference yesterday, it certainly seems like a very real possibility.

So the question now becomes - is it inevitable?

The internal problems appear to have been resolved and the major principles for power sharing have been agreed to. Yes, I suspect there will be power struggles, dissension in the ranks, and policy differences, but those problems will manifest themselves down the road, not within the next six days.

The leaders have already signed a pact so it seems unlikely that any amount of public pressure will cause a strategic retreat. With a signed letter declaring their lack of confidence, Harper proroguing simply doesn't seem like a constitutionally-valid or politically-sensible option. The only way to turn this train around would be for Harper to admit he made a mistake and accept most of the opposition's policy proposals (ie. a 30 billion dollar stimulus package).

So let's say for a second that the man who loathes compromise decides to suck it up and makes a gesture of reconciliation. Would the opposition accept? It would be the responsible thing to do, but there are still two large obstacles. First of all, Harper may have poisoned the well to the point where they simply refuse to work with him. Secondly, this deal offers the promise of more power than any of the three leaders involved will ever see during their political careers. It would certainly take a lot for them to willingly surrender that.

In other words, the accidental leadership candidate may very well soon become the accidental Prime Minister.

Dear Jean Letter

Monday, December 1, 2008


To our fellow citizens,

Canada is facing a global economic crisis. Since the recent federal election, it has become clear that the government headed by Stephen Harper has no plan, no competence and, no will to effectively address this crisis. Therefore, the majority of Parliament has lost confidence in Mr. Harper’s government, and believes that the formation of a new Government that will effectively, prudently, promptly and competently address these critical economic times is necessary.

The contrast between the inaction of Mr. Harper’s government and the common action taken by all other Western democracies is striking. We cannot accept this.

A majority of Canadians and Quebecers voted for our parties on October 14, 2008. Our Members of Parliament make up 55 percent of the House of Commons.

In light of the critical situation facing our citizens, and the Harper government’s unwillingness and inability to address the crisis, we are resolved to support a new government that will address the interests of the people.

Today we respectfully inform the Governor General that, as soon as the appropriate opportunity arises, she should call on the Leader of the Official Opposition to form a new government, supported as set out in the accompanying accords by all three of our parties.


Respectfully,


Hon. Stéphane Dion
Leader, the Liberal Party of Canada

Hon. Jack Layton
Leader, the New Democratic Party of Canada

Gilles Duceppe
Leader, the Bloc Québécois


UPDATE: Full details of the Liberal-NDP accord, and of the three party policy framework can be found here.

Days of Our Parliamentary Lives

1. The yet-to-be-named coalition seems poised to bring on Paul Martin, John Manley, Frank McKenna, and Roy Romanow as economic advisors. Smart move.


2. We also have polling! Well, from Quebec, at least.


3. The yet-to-be-named coalition is rumoured to made up of a slimmed down 24 person Cabinet, with the NDP getting 6 Cabinet seats. My guess would be Layton, Mulcair, Comartin, Wasylycia-Leis, Davies, and Duncan – as speculated by Island Liberal.

Reportedly it’s a two and a half year deal, with the Bloc agreeing to support them for the first year. No word on how firm this Bloc commitment is, or what they’re getting in return for their support.

And the same story mentions a 30 billion dollar stimulus package, and the cancellation of those evil Exxon tax cuts you may remember from every single time Jack Layton opened his mouth last campaign. But, there are some other rumours that cutting the cuts won’t be part of the deal so who knows, eh?


4. According to Mike Duffy, Stephane Dion will lead the coalition government.


5. Oh, and according to the Jack Layton tape, Bill Casey might be down with the coalition. It wouldn’t at all surprise me to see him in a Cabinet spot once all is said and done.

Not that anything would surprise me at this point.

Coalition Coalescing

The NDP and Liberals have reached a deal to topple the minority Conservative government and take power themselves in a coalition, CBC News has learned.

A deal has been negotiated between NDP Leader Jack Layton and Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion that would see them form a coalition government for two and a half years, the CBC's Keith Boag reported, citing sources.

The NDP would be invited into cabinet and get 25 per cent of seats, Boag said, adding that the party wouldn't get the position of the finance chair or the deputy prime minister's post.

No word yet on which portfolios the NDP would get: Minister of Working Families? Minister of Results for People? Minister of Kitchen Table Issues?

How this should play out

The first two days of political insanity are recapped here. Since then, the Tories have shelved the campaign finance changes, Flaherty has said he'll bring in a January 27th budget, and rumours of "secret" NDP/Bloc talks have spread.

So what does it all mean? The hell if I know.

So how will it play out? The hell if I know.

But here's how I think this thing should play out.


The three things I think we should keep in mind in all of this are:

a) Despite being in a minority parliament, the Tories were given a strong mandate to govern in the last election.

b) To govern in a minority parliament, you need to earn and maintain the confidence of the House of Commons.

c) If the party in power loses the confidence of the House of Commons this soon after an election and a stable alternative governing coalition can be found, that alternative should be given a chance to form government .

Clearly, the campaign finance cuts were a poison pill no opposition party could ever swallow. The legislation was nothing more than Harper trying to manipulate the rules of the land for partisan advantage - and he used an economic downturn as an excuse to do it, which is even more underhanded. The opposition parties had no choice but to vote against this legislation. But Harper has backed down, so the issue now turns to the rest of the F.U. and the lack of a stimulus package.

The Conservatives won the election so they certainly have a right to respond to this crisis as they see fit. And there's something to be said about co-ordinating our stimulus package with the American one. But regardless, the Conservatives need to earn the confidence of the House of Commons and the majority of the House (and the world for that matter) agree some form of a stimulus is needed now. So the responsible thing to do, in a responsible government, would be for the Conservatives to bend - remove some of the egregious elements of the update (say, banning the civil service from striking, pay equity changes, and the selling of crown assets), introduce a moderate stimulus now, and promise in concrete terms to do something larger in the January budget.

With those changes, no responsible opposition could bring the Harper government down. If they tried to, it would be seen as nothing more than a power-grab and the end result would probably be a Conservative majority government in a few months.

On the other side, if Harper doesn't bend, then the opposition parties would certainly have the right to form a coalition government, if they can promise a stable one. Harper himself said as much back in 2004. I'm not too excited about the precedence it sets and, if the situation were reversed, I'm not sure Liberals would have welcomed a Tory/Bloc/NDP coalition back in September 2004. But the opposition parties have the right to band together if they deem Harper's inaction on the economy to be so egregious that it warrants this unprecedented course of action.

So that's how I see the situation, from my vantage point. In the end, public opinion about the fiscal update and the coalition will probably dictate what happens next - and maybe that's not such a bad thing in a democracy. But I think the proper solution to all of this would be some real compromise on the part of Harper, and the passing of a revised fiscal update.

Will that happen? As I said above, the hell if I know.

Anyone Else?

Is anyone else getting flashbacks to May 2005, after the past few days in Ottawa? Because, for political junkies, that was the last time we saw anything approaching this.

A minority government scrambling to survive. Opposition parties out for blood. Cancelled confidence motions. A Liberal-NDP budget deal.

And, now, we've got our very own Grewal-esque secret audio recording.

This thing just keeps getting weirder and weirder by the hour...

If you're just tunning in now...

...here's what you've missed:

Tories want to destroy the opposition! Bring it on! Another election?Another election! Coalition government! Prime Minister Dion? A Liberal coup? Prime Minister Layton? Prime Minister Goodale? Harper blinks - election averted! Election on? Coalition on? Prime Minister Chretien? And Ed Broadbent? Je ne comprends pas anglais. Liberal non-confidence motion! WHAT THE @#&! IS GOING ON HERE??!!?!?!?


UPDATE: Harper delays the confidence vote until December 8th! What does it all mean? WHO THE HELL KNOWS! Let's just sit back and enjoy the ride!

Harper Blinks...Kinda

The Liberals show some backbone for the first time in a long time and, who woulda thunk it, they force Harper to actually back down.

Conservatives back down on controversial party funding changes (URGENT-Fiscal-Update-Vot)
Source: The Canadian Press - Broadcast wire
Nov 28, 2008 11:17

OTTAWA - The Conservative government says an incendiary plan to strip political parties of their public financing won't be included in a confidence vote on the fall fiscal update.

Government sources say only tax measures will be part of the ways and means motion that parliamentarians will vote upon on Monday.

It’s probably not incredibly surprising that the Tories blinked – these “crises” usually have a way of sorting themselves out. But if Harper really had wanted to go all in on this one, I think another election or an unstable Lib/NDP/Bloc coalition would have worked towards his end game.

I know a lot of people will call this a huge strategic blunder on Harper’s part but, I’m not so sure of that. It distracted people from a very unpopular fiscal update, and it may make it a bit harder for the opposition parties to borrow money for their next campaign, if the collateral of public finance dollars isn’t a certainly (you have to imagine they’re gone if we get a Tory majority). And you have to think the PR hit on an issue this complicated will be negligible.

This should also serve as a huge wake up call for the Liberals, Bloc, and NDP. If they don’t get their act together on fundraising soon, their very existence could be in jeopardy. If people didn’t recognize how important effective grass roots fundraising was before, they sure as hell will now.


"FISCAL UPDATE" UPDATE: Then again, maybe we'll get that election/coalitionofthewilling after all:

But Liberals and New Democrats say that dropping the financing measures will not influence their decision to vote against a fiscal update they say provides no economic stimulus at a time when Canada is entering a recession.



Now, as for the bill being broken off into a separate ways and means motion, to answer the question in the comments section - yes, I consider this backtracking on Harper's part. This is what you do to bills that you want to sit in purgatory for ever and ever. Maybe Harper brings it back to force an election at a later time but, for now, I think we don't need to worry about that bill anytime soon.

So the issue now becomes the Fiscal Update itself. And, as bad a fiscal update as it is, I really have a hard time seeing the opposition voting it down. My guess? The Bloc abstains.


UPDATE: Another ball to juggle:

MONTREAL — The Conservative government is set to announce details Friday of its hotly debated reforms to Canada's immigration system.