April Poll Soup - Guergis Fallout?
According to Frank Graves, the Jaffergis Imbruglio has caused Stephen Harper to "have cold beads of sweat popping out of his brow". Well, the April poll numbers are in and, despite a slight dip Tory support, Harper's lead over the Liberals actually went up. If the guy's breaking into a cold sweat over that, he seriously needs to manage his stress level better.
For the Liberals, it seems unlikely they'll be able to ride a "we won't put Helena Guergis in Cabinet" platform to victory - they're down nearly 5 points since February and have returned to last fall's low-water mark of the Ignatieff era. The good news for them is that now, unlike then, Harper isn't setting the electorate on fire (time for another piano concert perhaps?). It appears a lot of potential Liberal voters are parked with the NDP, Bloc, and Greens for the moment.
Angus Reid (April 29-30, n = 1014 online)
Leger (April 27-29, n = 1505 online)
EKOS (April 21-27, n = 2303 robo dialled)
Ipsos Reid (April 20-22, n = 1000 phone)
Harris Decima (April 15-25, n=2,014 phone)
AVERAGE (change since March in brackets)
Conservative Party: 33.3% (-0.7%)
Liberal Party: 27.1% (-2.1%)
NDP: 18.5% (+0.5%)
Bloc Quebecois: 9.9% (+1.2%)
Green Party 9.6% (+0.9%)
For seat projections, check out riding by riding (CPC 130, Lib 85, BQ 53, NDP 40) or three hundred eight (CPC 126, Lib 99, BQ 51, NDP 32).