Monday, April 05, 2010

Post-Budget Poll Soup

With the Tories widening their polling lead over the Liberals in March, it's easy to attribute this to a post-Olympic bounce, or reaction to the federal budget. But the Olympic bounce logic never made much sense to me, and given I can't even remember three details about the budget, I'd imagine it hasn't had a huge impact on most regular Canadians.

Rather, I tend to attribute the change in support from January and February to the prorogation backlash gradually dissipating. The Conservatives certainly aren't back to their end-of-2009 support levels, but a it looks to me like some disgruntled Tories are heading home.

Ekos (March 24-30, n=1855 demon dialled)
CPC 32.2%
Lib 27.0%
NDP 16.0%
BQ 9.0%
Green 12.7%
Other 3.1%

Angus Reid (March 25-26, n=1004 online)
CPC 35%
Lib 29%
NDP 20%
BQ 9%
Green 7%

IpsosReid (March 16-18, n=1001 phone)
CPC 34%
Lib 28%
NDP 18%
BQ 9%
Green 10%

Nanos (March 6-12, n = 1000 telephone)
CPC 34.7%
Lib 34.6%
NDP 17.8%
BQ 7.7%
Green 5.2%

AVERAGE (change since February in brackets)

Conservative Party: 34.0% (+0.8%)
Liberal Party: 29.2% (-2.8%)
NDP: 18.0% (+2.0%)
Bloc Quebecois: 8.7% (-0.2%)
Green Party 8.7% (-0.2%)


For Liberals despondent over limp federal numbers, and lackluster approval numbers for Misters Charest, McGuinty, Campbell, and Graham, rest assured...we've still got PEI! The last bastion of Liberalism remains as red as Anne's hair!



  • The party leader approval numbers were interesting. Iggy has a 16 per cent approval rating. It took Mulroney nine years of scandal and controversy to hit those numbers. Maybe it's all up hill from here.

    By Blogger nuna d. above, at 7:10 PM  

  • I'm going to predict we start getting "Harper majority" stories by the end of May/June.

    By Anonymous Deb, at 9:20 AM  

  • Seems to me that the main story in March is the NDP rising a full two points at the expense of the Liberals while everyone else is more or less steady.

    By Blogger DL, at 9:53 AM  

  • "… some disgruntled Tories are heading home."

    What about the gruntled Tories?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:40 AM  

  • Let's just have the inevitable election already, I'm bored of this crew and it's time for some new blood in the mix

    By Blogger Jacques Beau Vert, at 11:00 AM  

  • I'm really curious as to how Stephen Harper is going to play this. It doesn't look as if he yet has the makings of a clear majority. If he wins only another minority, the Cons may feel it is time for someone else (Flaherty?) to give it a go.

    Even if he IS able to secure a majority, he's going to have a hard time holding back those who have been waiting quite a while to implement some of the more extreme right positions. This is what has historically led to splits in the Conservative camp, e.g., Reform and the Bloc.

    By Blogger Party of One, at 8:03 PM  

  • "This is what has historically led to splits in the Conservative camp, e.g., Reform and the Bloc."

    Mulroney's problem is that he had a very large majority made up of people who largely disagreed with each other. Harper, if he wins a majority, will barely win one.

    With a weak majority, Harper will be able to defend taking a careful approach. Moreover, suburban Ontario and the west are much closer ideologically than were Mulroney's Quebec and Alberta MP's. A bit of pandering to the law and order vote, a few corporate tax cuts, cash for parents - stuff like that is the basis for a long-term political coalition.

    I think Harper's model is pretty clear - its Mackenzie-King. You don't produce lasting change by taking power, implementing radical policies, and then having them repealed after you lose.

    By Blogger hosertohoosier, at 9:31 AM  

  • Most Liberals don't shout too loud about PEI, since the island gets four MPs where numbers warrant only one - a bit of a slap in the face to those who believe in representation by population, and a reminder of the analysis you did in your other post about how the population is shifting.

    But can you imagine the clamour for change if those four seats went another way?

    By Blogger Paul, at 3:28 PM  

  • H2H, do you think that Harper's caucus is more heterogenous than Mulroney's?

    While Mulroney was famous for bringing together many divergent interests under a "big tent", I'm not so sure that those currently in Harper's tent are any less divergent.

    By Blogger Party of One, at 4:18 PM  

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