Back in the UK
The real twist is the rise of the Liberal Democrats, which has buggered up most seat projections. But hey, that just makes it more fun. Here's the skinny on UK polling numbers and projections:
1) The UK Polling Report has all the latest polls.
2) The gambling line at Betfair sets the Conservatives at 318, Labour at 216, the LibDems at 87, and other parties at 29.
3) You can play around yourself with BBC's swingometer. Just plug in the numbers and, Bob's your uncle, you get projected seat counts!
4) A more advanced projection model can be found here. My only qualm is that I just don't think there are enough data points to customize vote patterns on a riding by riding basis. Regardless, it projects the Conservatives at 291 seats, Labour at 209, the LibDems at 120, with 8 seats going to other parties. It sets the odds of a Tory majority at 8%.
5) Electoral Calculus projects seats using a regional swingometer and the betting markets. They have the Cons at 283 seats, Labour at 238, the LibDems at 97, with 32 seats going to other parties.
6) Finally, this brings us to our good friends at 538. Their model is a bit too subjective for my taste, and I'm not a fan of the geometric swing. The problem is, if you assume Labour will only hold 60% of its vote and you extrapolate that to every riding, you'll be taking the most votes away from their strongholds. For example, if you did this in Canada and had the Liberals down in the polls, their biggest losses would come in Toronto. Which I'm not sure is what would happen in reality.
On the flip side, their model will probably account for the rise of the LibDems better than most. So I guess we'll have to wait and see. Regardless, they project the Conservatives at 299 seats, Labour at 199, and the LibDems at 120.